Is Balance of Power Shifting in Competitive AFC West?

The Denver Broncos no longer have a tight grip on the AFC West. Everyone expects Peyton Manning to come back for his fourth season in orange, but if the last half of the 2014 season is any indicator, he’s in decline.

Scheme and personnel changes in the offseason could further weaken the Broncos. It could be just enough for another AFC West team to grab the top spot. The San Diego Chargers have the best chance to do that in 2015 with their combination of a quality quarterback, existing talent, salary cap and draft picks.

Since the Kansas City Chiefs committed so much money to quarterback Alex Smith, they’re going to have to do very good work in the draft to avoid a decline. A megadeal that is coming for outside linebacker Justin Houston will further strain their cap situation. Their perpetual mediocrity will also keep them from getting a top draft pick.

Until the Oakland Raiders do something, everyone has the right to be skeptical about them. If they can get out of their own way, the Raiders can improve quickly thanks to a great 2014 draft, loads of salary cap space and another premium draft pick in 2015.

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In general, teams tend to regress toward the mean. Using Pro-Football-Reference’s Simple Rating System, it’s easy to see both the Broncos and Chiefs are due for more regression toward the mean than the Chargers. The Raiders should progress toward the mean.

Data via Pro-Football-Reference.com

Obviously, this isn’t a foolproof method for determining how a team will trend in the future. Quarterback play has a lot to do with how well teams perform as well as many other factors.

Considering what we know about the quarterbacks and the individual situations of all the teams in the division, it’s likely to be the case. That doesn’t mean the division standings in 2015 will necessarily change, but slowly the balance of power is shifting.

Quarterback Situation and Roster Age

Anytime there is a shift in the balance of power in a division, it’s usually due to changes at the quarterback position. If Manning can no longer put up elite numbers, the Broncos must rely on the rest of their talent to keep them atop the AFC West.

Meanwhile for the San Diego Chargers, Philip Rivers is still at his peak performance age for a couple more years. That gives the Chargers a window to dominate the AFC West if they can make improvements.

Split	Broncos	Chargers	Chiefs	Raiders
Salary Cap Space	$27.8M	$25.4M	-$2.3M	$56.1M
Draft Slot	28	17	18	4
Roster Age (Current)	25.7	26	25.9	26.3
2014 Simple Rating System	8.9	1.2	5	-9.7

Alex Smith is also at his peak performance age, but he’s not nearly as good as Rivers. Smith needs more talent around him, and that’s where the cost of these quarterbacks comes into play.

Manning’s cap number is $21.5 million in 2015, according to Over the Cap. Philip Rivers’ cap number is significantly lower at $17.4 million. Alex Smith is at $15.6 million and Derek Carr is at $1.2 million. The more a team spends on its quarterback, the less it has to spend in free agency.

The Chiefs pay Smith like a quarterback who can mask deficiencies. If he doesn’t, that means they have less money to spend on a player or two who can make a difference.

The age of the entire roster also has a lot to do with the performance of the team. The younger the team, the better it typically is on the field. For example, the Broncos are currently the youngest team in the AFC West, pending free agency.

The Chargers and Chiefs were both around the same age, but the Raiders were much older, according to each team’s respective website. The Raiders have had to supplement a bad roster in free agency, which isn’t a recipe for success for most teams.

The average age of the roster can change in a hurry depending on the resources available to each team. Some AFC West teams are better prepared than their rivals, which should facilitate a power shift in the coming year or two.

Free Agency, the Salary Cap and Draft Slot

The AFC West teams have to realize they can get better this offseason depending on how they use their resources. That includes being judicious with dollars spent in free agency and the wise use of draft picks.

Although having a good quarterback and a young roster are conducive to success, there is considerable change every year. The NFL’s salary cap guarantees there will be roster turnover and that helps teams make over their rosters quickly.

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The Broncos have several high-profile free agents, including wide receiver Demaryius Thomas, tight end Julius Thomas and slot receiver Wes Welker. Demaryius will likely get the franchise tag, but there is a lot of uncertainly involving the other two.

If general manager John Elway wants them back, he has the resources. Despite being in win-now mode, the Broncos have plenty of cap space. In fact, they have the second most in the division and among the most in the league even before taking cost-cutting measures.

The Chargers are a close third in cap space, but they don’t have high-profile free agents to sign like the Broncos. That puts the Chargers in position to bring in an impact player or two in free agency so they can directly compete with the Broncos in 2015.

Although they always make a few under-the-radar moves, the Chiefs don’t have the cap space to be active in free agency. The Chiefs will have to use the 18th pick in the draft to try to keep pace with AFC West foes with more cap dollars and higher draft picks.

The Raiders are in position to land a top talent with the No. 4 overall pick. If they land another talent as good as outside linebacker Khalil Mack, they at least won’t be the pushover they have been in recent years.

Conclusion

With a big offseason, the Chargers could move into a more competitive position with the Broncos. The Broncos are still well-equipped to continue to be the power of the AFC West, but that window is closing.

The Chiefs are going to struggle to keep up unless they draft extremely well. Smith’s contract is a handicap and they don’t have many resources to remake the roster with top talent.

Although probably still two years away from making any real noise, the Raiders have the resources to turn things around quickly. As Manning inches toward retirement, the AFC West could become one of the more hotly contested divisions in football.