NFL Playoff Picture: Analyzing 2014 Conference Championships

Four teams remaining.

Three games to play.

The NFL’s Final Four for 2014 has a pretty familiar feel to it. Dating back to 2001, the New England Patriots (five), Indianapolis Colts (two), Seattle Seahawks (two) and Green Bay Packers (one) have made a combined 10 Super Bowl appearances and each franchise has won at least one Lombardi Trophy.

So who will emerge as the two teams headed to Glendale, Arizona, for Super Bowl XLIX?

From scenarios to statistics, to a prediction (actually two), we will get you ready for conference championship game weekend.

Keep in mind that win-loss records in the ensuing playoff matchups do include postseason results.

AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

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(4) Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at (1) New England Patriots (13-4)

Sunday, Jan. 18

6:40 pm ET (CBS)

It’s pretty funny when you think about it.

For a long time, the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots were division rivals in the old AFC East. That changed in 2002 with NFL realignment and the formation of eight divisions, as opposed to six.

But since 2003, including playoffs, these clubs have met once at least every year. In fact, this will mark the 16th clash between these teams in the last 12 seasons.

For the second straight year and the fifth time since 2003, these rivals will clash in the postseason. Two of those contests came in the AFC Championship Game. The Pats prevailed in 2003 (24-14) and the Colts won in 2006 (38-34), with the home team emerging victorious in each of the previous instances.

As for that aforementioned recent history, it’s been all Patriots as of late. Including the playoffs, New England has won five straight meetings dating back to 2010—by a combined score of 206-118.

However, it’s the last three encounters between these teams that are certainly eye-popping. Since the arrival of quarterback Andrew Luck in 2012, the Colts have dropped three in a row in this series by scores of 59-24 (2012), 43-22 (2013 AFC Divisional Playoffs) and 42-20 (Week 11 of 2014).

That’s a combined 144-66 score in favor of New England.

Good...luck.

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Associated Press

(2) Green Bay Packers (13-4) at (1) Seattle Seahawks (13-4)

Sunday, Jan. 18

3:05 pm ET (Fox)

It’s deja vu time in the Pacific Northwest.

The very first game of the 2014 NFL regular season featured the Green Bay Packers visiting the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, with Pete Carroll’s club coming away with an impressive 36-16 win.

There’s not a lot of recent history when it comes to this series. Of course, who can forget the infamous Monday night clash between the clubs in 2012, when Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and wideout Golden Tate pulled off the infamous “Fail Mary?”

Still, this marks the third playoff meeting between the clubs. In the 2003 Wild Card Round, the Packers pulled off a 33-27 overtime victory at Lambeau Field thanks to a pick-six by Packers cornerback Al Harris, at the expense of confident Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.

Four years later in the 2007 NFC Divisional Playoffs, the Packers ran over the Seahawks. Thanks to a big afternoon from running back Ryan Grant, Mike McCarthy’s club came away with a 42-20 win at Lambeau Field.

Super Bowl XLIX Scenarios

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We list the NFC team second in each instance because that will be the designated home club in Super Bowl XLIX.

New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers

The teams met in Super Bowl XXXI at the Superdome following the 1996 season; a 35-21 Green Bay victory. Earlier this season at Lambeau Field, the Packers held off Bill Belichick’s team, 26-21, in Week 13.

New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks

Talk about a little history? If by chance these two clubs make their way to Glendale, it will be a meeting between the last two head coaches of the Patriots. Prior to Bill Belichick’s arrival in New England in 2000, Pete Carroll led the Pats for three seasons from 1997-99, leading the team to two playoff appearances.

As for the most recent meeting between the clubs, the Seahawks rallied for a 24-23 win back in 2012 at Seattle.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers

While these teams have never squared off in a Super Bowl, the Packers defeated the then-Baltimore Colts in overtime, 13-10, at Lambeau Field in a 1965 Conference Playoff game. That was the season prior to the arrival of the Super Bowl.

As for recent history, the Colts defeated the Packers at Indianapolis, 30-27, in 2012 in one of those signature comeback wins for quarterback Andrew Luck.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks

How’s this for a switch?

When the league merger took place in 1970, three NFL teams (Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers) moved to what was the newly-formed American Football Conference. The Colts remain the only franchise to play in a Super Bowl for the NFL and the AFC.

When realignment took place in 2002, the Seahawks jumped (back) from the AFC West to the NFC West. History fans will tell you that the team began its tenure in the league in 1976 in the NFC West before switching conferences in 1977.

As for current times, the Colts defeated the Seahawks, 34-28, in 2013 at Indianapolis (Week 5). For what it’s worth, that’s the most points allowed by Seattle in any game (regular- or postseason) since 2012.

Matchups to Watch

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AFC Championship Game

Colts TE Dwayne Allen vs. Patriots OLB Jamie Collins

He remains an underrated part of the Colts’ passing game. In two playoff games this season, Allen has caught seven passes for 60 yards and one score—that coming in Sunday’s win over the Denver Broncos.

During the regular season, Allen totaled just 29 catches for 395 yards. But he tied for the team lead with eight touchdown receptions.

Collins totaled a team-high 11 tackles and knocked down two passes in the playoff win over the Ravens.

Colts LT Anthony Castonzo vs. Patriots RDE Chandler Jones

Very quietly, the Indianapolis offensive line did a decent job of protecting Andrew Luck this season, although the athletic signal-caller helped his own cause. The Colts allowed only 29 sacks, compared to 32 sacks in 2013 and 41 in 2012.

In two playoff games, Luck has been sacked only once and that came in the wild-card win over the Bengals.

Despite missing a chunk of time during the regular season, Jones totaled six sacks in 2014. In Saturday’s win over Baltimore, he totaled four tackles and managed a pair of quarterback hits in the victory.

NFC Championship Game

Packers LOLB Julius Peppers vs. Seahawks RT Justin Britt

Those concerned about Peppers making the transition from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker this season apparently should not have been that worried.

The 13-year veteran made his presence felt in the playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys. Peppers totaled six tackles, one sack and forced a pair of fumbles.

But can Britt, a rookie second-round pick in May, keep the longtime defender from chasing down Russell Wilson?

Packers C Corey Linsley vs. Seahawks MLB Bobby Wagner

The Green Bay rookie started at center on opening night at Seattle and the fifth-round pick from Ohio State held his own (and fortunately no one else) in the team’s 36-16 loss.

On the other hand, there was no stopping Wagner that night. He finished the game with a team-high 14 tackles as the Seattle defense held Packers running back Eddie Lacy to 34 yards rushing on 12 carries and Green Bay’s ground attack to 80 yards on 21 carries.

Notable Statistics

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• The New England Patriots will be seeking a record-tying eighth Super Bowl appearance this weekend. The Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers are co-owners of the mark with eight trips to the Super Bowl. The Pats are currently tied with the Denver Broncos with seven appearances—five of those since 2001.

• The Patriots are also the first team since the Philadelphia Eagles (2001-04) to reach a conference title game four consecutive years. The last AFC team to achieve that feat was the 1990-93 Buffalo Bills. New England is in the AFC title game for the ninth time in 14 seasons dating back to 2001.

• Under the current playoff format that dates back to 1990, there have been only four occasions (1991, 1993, 2009 and 2013) in which both No. 1 seeds in each conference reached the Super Bowl. The Patriots and Seahawks are both hoping to make it five times in 25 seasons and the first time in back-to-back years.

• So, will both the host Patriots and Seahawks prevail at home on Sunday? Last season, both home clubs (Broncos and Seahawks) won on championship Sunday but in 2012, both home teams (Falcons and Patriots) fell short. Since 1990, home teams are a combined 29-19 in the conference title games and on eight occasions, both home teams won on the same Sunday.

• With Saturday’s 35-31 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick won his 20th postseason game as an NFL head coach. That’s tied for the most in NFL history with Hall of Fame sideline leader Tom Landry. A win over the Colts would be a new record for Belichick, who now ranks fourth in league annals with 231 coaching wins (including playoffs), trailing only Don Shula (347), George Halas (324) and Landry (270).

Predictions

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AFC Championship Game

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

While a Colts victory in this matchup is perhaps improbable, it is certainly not impossible. The Patriots’ supposedly improved defensive unit gave up 428 total yards and 31 points to the Baltimore Ravens last Saturday.

When these teams met earlier this year, the New England running game took center stage. Don’t be surprised if that’s the case again, despite the fact that the Colts defense has played well in the playoffs.

In that Week 11 matchup at Indianapolis, New England ran for 246 yards on 44 carries—201 of those yards by Jonas Gray, who also rushed for four touchdowns. The Pats rolled up 503 total yards in a 42-20 win.

A year earlier in the 2013 AFC Divisional Playoffs, New England rushed for 234 yards on 46 carries. That night, LeGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four touchdowns.

Notice a pattern?

Prediction: New England 31, Indianapolis 21

NFC Championship Game

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

Mike McCarthy and the Packers are hoping to do what the Colts have already done this season.

Indianapolis began the year with a prime-time loss to the Broncos and then returned to Denver in the playoffs and pulled out a victory.

Of course, the Seahawks are trying to do what hasn’t been done since the Patriots in 2003 and 2004 and that’s reach consecutive Super Bowls.

Seattle’s defense has been amazing as of late, as has the team in general. The Seahawks have now won seven straight games (by combined score of 165-56), allowing only five touchdowns in those seven contests.

Of course, Pete Carroll’s team will have to deal with Aaron Rodgers, who in 17 overall appearances in 2014 has thrown 41 touchdown passes and been picked off only five times. He’ll have his moments on Sunday but figures to come up just short in what should be a nail-biter in the Pacific Northwest.

Prediction: Seattle 21, Green Bay 20