2015 NFL Free Agency: Previewing the Biggest Risks on the Market

Buyer, beware?

On Wednesday, we presented a list of eight NFL players who could not only hit the unrestricted free-agent market in roughly two months but the performers we felt may be in store for the most bank.

Now, we give you eight players that we’re not sure you can bank on in 2015. And if you have been reading as of late, some of the names we have predicted to get big contracts this spring may be included in this piece as well.

Risk can mean a lot of things when it comes to free agency. In some instances, it regards performance and a lack of consistency. For others, it may be a career marred by injuries.

So here’s a look at a group that may require some discussion when it comes to a team signing them to a new deal or another suitor taking a chance. No doubt there are other players who would warrant consideration on this list (which is in alphabetical order by team) as well.

Note: We have not included Carolina Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy on this list due to his uncertain future in regard to the NFL.

RB DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

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Until this season, Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray had flashed plenty of star potential, but staying on the field had been the biggest issue.

That changed in 2014, even though the All-Pro performer did suffer a finger injury. Murray remained on the field for all 16 games, totaling an NFL-best 1,845 yards on the ground on a league-high 392 carries and rushing for 100-plus yards in 12 contests (tied for the second-most such performances in a season in NFL history).

But was this magical year for Murray just that? Was 2014 the exception and not the rule? While some point to the number of rushing attempts (175 more than he totaled the previous season) as a factor, it’s less about the wear and tear and more about the tears (per se) from 2011 to 2013.

WR Wes Welker, Denver Broncos

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A former undrafted free agent, wide receiver Wes Welker’s 890 career receptions now ranks 20th in NFL history.

But will there be more in 2015 for the suddenly oft-injured performer, who during his impressive career has caught at least 100 passes five times during his days with the New England Patriots?

Since joining the Denver Broncos in 2013, Welker has played in only 27 games and caught only 112 passes, including 12 for scores. He totaled 118 receptions in his final season in Foxborough in 2012.

Concussions have been the issue for Welker, who turns 34 years old in May and may be ready to step away from the game anyway. There will be some soul searching going on for the productive pass-catcher very soon.

T Bryan Bulaga, Green Bay Packers

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Was 2014 the exception rather than the rule?

The Green Bay Packers used the 23rd overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft to select University of Iowa tackle Bryan Bulaga.

As a rookie, he started 12 games in the regular season and was the starting right tackle during Green Bay's four-game postseason run in 2010 that resulted in a victory in Super Bowl XLV.

There have been more pitfalls than positives since, as injuries have shortened the tackle’s playing time. He missed seven games in 2012 with a hip injury and all of 2013 with a knee injury.

As he prepares for this week’s NFC divisional round game versus the visiting Dallas Cowboys, Bulaga comes off a regular season in which he played and started a career-best 15 contests. But is he in the future plans for the Packers, and will his past injuries affect his market value?

RB Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins

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After a career year with the Denver Broncos in 2013, one that included an appearance with the team in Super Bowl XLVIII, it’s been tough sledding for running back Knowshon Moreno.

The former University of Georgia product ran for a career-best 1,038 yards with the Broncos last season, adding a career-high 60 receptions as well. It also marked the first time since his rookie campaign in 2009 that he played in all 16 games.

After an offseason of uncertainty and surgery that included signing a one-year deal with the Miami Dolphins, Moreno was ready to go in Week 1 and put on quite a show in a 33-20 win over the New England Patriots. He carried 24 times for 134 yards and a score in the victory.

But good health was not in the cards for the six-year veteran, who played in only two games the remainder of the season. What uniform will he be wearing in 2015?

OLB Brandon Graham, Philadelphia Eagles

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With the recent hiring of new head coach Jim Harbaugh, it’s been few good weeks for the University of Michigan.

Let’s see if it proves to be a good offseason for another former Wolverine.

In 2010, defensive end Brandon Graham was the 13th overall pick in the draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. In five seasons with the club, he’s played various roles, and in a total of 64 games, he’s managed only 17 sacks—including a career-best 5.5 in both 2012 and 2014.

A feared pass-rusher in college, Graham has been the classic example of a “tweener.” At 6’1”, 263 pounds, he’s undersized in terms of a defensive end but hasn’t made a big splash at outside linebacker in recent years.

Is there a full-time role for Graham somewhere in the league? And will it be in the City of Brotherly Love?

RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

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Back in 2010, the San Diego Chargers made Fresno State running back Ryan Mathews a first-round selection in hopes of reviving their running game.

It has happened...on occasion.

In this second season in the league, Mathews totaled 1,091 yards rushing and six touchdowns, caught 50 passes and went to the Pro Bowl.

In 2013, the talented pro rushed for a career-high 1,255 yards and once again scored six touchdowns.

The rest of his career has been plagued by injuries. This past season, he was limited to eight games and managed a total of 399 yards from scrimmage.

What the future holds for Mathews is anyone’s guess.

DE Adrian Clayborn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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We haven’t seen as much of the former University of Iowa star as either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or defensive end Adrian Clayborn would like.

That’s because during his brief four-year career, the 2011 first-round pick has missed almost as many games (28) as he has played (32).

As a rookie, Clayborn started 16 games and managed a respectable 42 tackles, 7.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. But three weeks into 2012, he suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Clayborn rebounded by starting 16 games and totaling 5.5 sacks in 2013. But in this past September’s season opener against the Carolina Panthers, he was lost for the season, as reported by Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com at the time.

Can Clayborn rebound once again and then stay healthy? Someone will find out this year. It’s just a matter of how much time and money a team is willing to spend on his potential.

OLB Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins

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We have mentioned Washington Redskins outside linebacker Brian Orakpo prominently in our free-agent coverage to date and how we feel he may be one of the high-ticket pickups this offseason.

That doesn’t mean that the three-time Pro Bowler doesn’t come with a warning label.

The 13th overall pick in the 2009 draft, the former University of Texas product produced in his first three seasons, totaling a combined 28 sacks over that span.

However, injuries have played a major factor in two of the last three years. In 2012, he was lost for the season after two games with a torn pectoral muscle. This fall, he suffered a similar type of injury that would cost him nine games, as originally documented by Mike Jones of The Washington Post.

Still, either the Redskins or another team will take a chance on a player who has the ability to get to the quarterback. For Orakpo, here’s hoping good health is in his future.

All free-agent and contract information comes courtesy of Spotrac (subscription required).