Week 17 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Projections for Top 10 Players at Each Position

For fantasy owners who have a championship round in Week 17, the best holiday present you can ask for is a victory this week and a year of bragging rights. 

To help you achieve just that, I've provided my projections for my top-10 options at every position, along with a look at four players I think you should be sitting this week. Because while it's important to know which players to start each week, it's just important to know which players you simply can't trust.

After all, a championship is on the line.

Schedule

Sunday, December 28	Time (ET)	TV
Philadelphia at NY Giants	1 p.m.	FOX
Carolina at Atlanta	1 p.m.	FOX
Cleveland at Baltimore	1 p.m.	CBS
Dallas at Washington	1 p.m.	FOX
Indianapolis at Tennessee	1 p.m.	CBS
Jacksonville at Houston	1 p.m.	CBS
San Diego at Kansas City	1 p.m.	CBS
NY Jets at Miami	1 p.m.	CBS
Chicago at Minnesota	1 p.m.	FOX
Buffalo at New England	1 p.m.	CBS
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	1 p.m.	FOX
Detroit at Green Bay	4:25 p.m.	FOX
Oakland at Denver	4:25 p.m.	CBS
Arizona at San Francisco	4:25 p.m.	FOX
St. Louis at Seattle	4:25 p.m.	FOX
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	8:30 p.m.	NBC

Start 'Em: Top 10 Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Peyton Manning	25
2	Drew Brees	23
3	Andrew Luck	22
4	Aaron Rodgers	20
5	Tony Romo	19
6	Eli Manning	18
7	Russell Wilson	17
8	Ryan Tannehill	16
9	Matt Ryan	15
10	Cam Newton	15

Sit 'Em: Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers

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I understand the desire to start Colin Kaepernick this week. After all, he just torched the San Diego Chargers for 27 fantasy points (even if the Niners eventually lost the game). 

I'd recommend you resist that temptation, however.

Remember, 15 of those 27 points came on a 92-yard touchdown run. While Kaepernick is always capable of taking one to the house, banking on a 92-yard scoring play isn't exactly ideal at the quarterback position. In the three games prior to Week 16, Kaepernick had a total of 18 points. And he's scored 17 or more fantasy points in a game just five times this season.

Plus, Arizona's defense isn't going to make things easy on him. Russell Wilson just put on a show against them, sure, but the Cardinals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to score 18 or more fantasy points against them just six times. Kaepernick did so in Week 3, but that was before San Francisco's season became a soap opera.

Kaepernick knows he's in for a challenge, as he told the media on Tuesday, via San Francisco's official website:

"

Very physical defense, very fast. (They) have good corners, good safeties and their front seven does a great job stopping the run. They’ll get their safeties involved at times, but they just play all-around good team football, and that’s what makes it tough when you have people flying around chasing the ball.

"

My general principle is this—if you haven't been able to trust a player for most of the season, why would you trust him with your fantasy championship on the line?

You haven't been able to trust Kaepernick most of this year. Now isn't the time to start.

Start 'Em: Top 10 Running Backs

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Le'Veon Bell	20
2	Arian Foster	19
3	Matt Forte	18
4	C.J. Anderson	17
5	Jamaal Charles	17
6	Marshawn Lynch	16
7	LeSean McCoy	16
8	DeMarco Murray	15
9	Mark Ingram	14
10	Justin Forsett	14

Sit 'Em: Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis Rams

The Seattle Seahawks have held opposing running backs to nine or fewer fantasy points eight times this season. They've held opposing backs to six or fewer points in four of their last five games. They've allowed opposing backs to rush for over 100 yards in Seattle just once this season (and twice overall). 

So no, I wouldn't recommend starting Tre Mason this week.

Mason has been pretty hit or miss this season anyway, highlighted by a 33-point performance in Week 13 (he has just 20 total fantasy points in the three games since). Because Seattle's vaunted secondary will have little issue bottling up St. Louis' wide receivers, the Seahawks will be free to stack the box in an attempt to eliminate the running game.

I'll be on Seattle pulling that off before I bet on Mason and company making them pay. Sit Mason, folks.

Start 'Em: Top 10 Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Dez Bryant	20
2	Odell Beckham Jr.	20
3	Jordy Nelson	17
4	A.J. Green*	15
5	Julio Jones*	15
6	Calvin Johnson	14
7	Demaryius Thomas	14
8	Randall Cobb	12
9	Mike Evans	12
10	T.Y. Hilton*	12

Sit 'Em: Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Two words: Darrelle Revis.

Two more words: Kyle Orton.

The former is likely to be shadowing Sammy Watkins all over the field on Sunday. The latter is the pretty mediocre quarterback throwing Watkins passes. The combination of the two is a pretty good indicator that the talented rookie wideout could have a quiet Week 17.

The New England Patriots have been stingy against opposing wide receivers all season long, allowing the position just 17.9 fantasy points per week, fifth in the NFL. And Watkins was held to just two receptions for 27 yards in the first meeting between these teams in Week 6.

The one consolation for Watkins owners is that Revis might not play the entire game since the Pats have already clinched the top seed in the AFC. But are you willing to bet on that?

I'm not. Sit Watkins.

Start 'Em: Top 10 Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Julius Thomas	15
2	Rob Gronkowski	15
3	Jimmy Graham	13
4	Greg Olsen	12
5	Jason Witten	10
6	Antonio Gates	9
7	Delanie Walker	9
8	Martellus Bennett	8
9	Dwayne Allen*	8
10	Coby Fleener	7

Sit 'Em: Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

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Yes, Zach Ertz was awesome against Washington last week, catching 15 passes for 115 yards on 18 targets. Maybe you are hoping he can provide a repeat performance against the New York Giants. He did have three receptions for 47 yards and a score against them in Week 6, after all.

Here's the thing, though.

Ertz's 115 receiving yards in Week 16 was more than he had in his previous four games. His 15 receptions was more than he's had in his previous seven games. He has one touchdown reception since Philadelphia's Week 7 bye. Are you picking up what I'm putting down here?

Basically, you can't trust Ertz. He's been a boom-or-bust option all year, and for all of the talent he's flashed at points this season, he's simply been a bust more than he's been a boom. I'd advise staying away.

Start 'Em: Top 10 Defense/Special Teams

Rank	Team	Projected Points
1	Houston Texans	15
2	Seattle Seahawks	14
3	New England Patriots	12
4	Miami Dolphins	11
5	Arizona Cardinals	10
6	Minnesota Vikings	10
7	Denver Broncos	9
8	Baltimore Ravens	8
9	San Francisco 49ers	8
10	Dallas Cowboys	7

Start 'Em: Top 10 Kickers

Rank	Player	Projected Points
1	Adam Vinatieri	15
2	Mason Crosby	14
3	Stephen Gostkowski	13
4	Randy Bullock	12
5	Cody Parkey	11
6	Matt Bryant	10
7	Justin Tucker	10
8	Dan Carpenter	9
9	Steven Hauschka	9
10	Shaun Suisham	8

All point totals and points-against statistics via ESPN standard-scoring leagues.