Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The NFC North title will come down to the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers, who will host the key Week 17 matchup on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

The Packers bounced back from their first loss in six games by defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20-3, last Sunday as 11.5-point road favorites, while the Lions extended their winning streak to four games but did not cover their second straight as 9.5-point road favorites in a 20-14 victory against the Chicago Bears.

Point spread: Packers opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.0-25.9 Packers

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit has quietly put itself in position to win the division crown and possibly one of the top two seeds in the NFC with a victory at Lambeau. While that will be no easy task, the Lions put the clamps on Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers during a 19-7 victory back in Week 3, limiting him to 162 yards and one touchdown en route to covering the spread as one-point home favorites.

Detroit has struggled on the road but is a much different team offensively this season that should be able to adapt to the conditions and take advantage of its strong defense to at least keep this game close.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers are a much better home team, and that is backed up by their seven-game winning streak at Lambeau that has also seen them go 5-1-1 against the spread. They are also 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games against NFC North opponents and have won five of the previous seven meetings with the Lions both straight up and versus the line.

The big difference between these two teams right now is on the offensive side of the ball, where Green Bay has been rolling at home and Detroit has been struggling on the road. The Lions have been sputtering along and won’t be able to keep up in a shootout.

Smart Pick

In an offensive-minded game, the Packers have a major advantage. But playing an opponent like Detroit will be a serious test for Green Bay, especially if the Lions can limit the number of possessions for the Packers and turn this into more of a defensive battle.

The running games could be critical in terms of deciding who wins the division, and both teams have players who can grind out yardage in Green Bay’s Eddie Lacy and Detroit’s Joique Bell. The under has cashed in eight of the last 11 meetings, including four of the past five.

The under is also 7-0 in the last seven road games for the Lions, who cannot be trusted to score a lot of points on the road due to the struggles of quarterback Matthew Stafford outdoors. Look for this to be a low-scoring game.

Betting Trends

• Detroit is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games when playing Green Bay.
• Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing at home against Detroit.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.