Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 17: Making the Call on Fantasy Football Fringe Starters

Week 17 is the most difficult time to make fantasy football decisions.  Determining how much stars are going to play essentially equates to reading tea leaves and overreacting to "anonymous sources" on Twitter. 

Leagues that continue through the end of the season will determine their championship largely based on these strange variables that don't come into play on any other Sunday.  The fantasy morality of that is dubious, but if you're in that situation, there's a golden opportunity to gain a huge leg up over your opponent by making the most informed lineup decisions.

Let's confront some of the thorniest playing time issues while also highlighting some of the toughest matchup calls, making the start or sit verdict with the potential fringe fantasy starters.

Position	Start	Sit
QB	Tony Romo (DAL) vs. Washington	Tom Brady (NE) vs. Bills
RB	Boom Herron (IND) @ Titans	Isaiah Crowell (CLE) @ Ravens
WR	DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs. Jaguars	A.J. Green (CIN) @ Steelers
TE	Delanie Walker (TEN) vs. Colts	Rob Gronkowski (NE) vs. Bills
D/ST	Dolphins (vs. Jets)	Cardinals (@ 49ers)
K	Blair Walsh (MIN) vs. Bears	Mason Crosby (GB) vs. Lions

Start 'Em

Boom Herron, RB, Indianapolis Colts

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Fantasy owners may be understandably hesitant to rely on Boom Herron, given that he has accrued just 89 rushing yards and no touchdowns over the past three games; however, facing a Titans defense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the third-year back could be a viable play.

Playing time concerns might worry owners, considering that the Colts are locked into the AFC's No. 4 seed, but facing a similar situation last season, Indy played its starters four quarters in a Week 17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, with reserves only coming on when the outcome was decided late.

Moreover, despite the dip in production, the timeshare between Herron and the much-maligned Trent Richardson has begun to dissipate.  Since Herron broke into the lineup Week 12 against Jacksonville, he has received the favorable half of a roughly 60-40 split every week:

Week	Herron Touches	Richardson Touches
12 (vs. JAC)	17	13
13 (vs. WSH)	10	8
14 (@ CLE)	12	7
15 (vs. HOU)	13	11
16 (@ DAL)	10	4

A juicy matchup coupled with a likely abundance of touches makes Herron a flex play at worst in standard leagues.  If someone has dropped this former waiver-wire darling after a few disappointing weeks, don't hesitate to plug him into your lineup.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

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Much like Herron, DeAndre Hopkins has struggled recently, with just 14 fantasy points in three outings after his monstrous three-touchdown effort one month ago.  With Case Keenum at quarterback, Hopkins put up arguably the least valuable wide receiver performance of the week in terms of per-play efficiency, seemingly killing his value for the finale. 

However, while he's no longer a bona fide must-start, Hopkins has received 25 targets the past two weeks, tied for third most in the league over that span, per Pro-Football-Reference.  Moreover, one of Keenum's few strengths as a starter last year was the deep ball, as he was among the 2013 league leaders in yardage from deep passes:

That bodes well for Hopkins, who derives much of his value from his ability as a vertical threat.  According to PFR, Hopkins has notched 20 catches of 20 or more yards, which is tied for sixth most in the league.  Furthermore, with 43 targets in the deep areas of the field, only five receivers had recorded more such targets than Hopkins this year.

The precocious second-year receiver's catch rate will likely be low considering Houston's quarterback play; however, look for Hopkins to break loose a couple of times against an undersized Jaguars secondary that has seen its young safeties have issues in route identification and deep-half discipline.

Sit 'Em

Patriots Stars

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With the top seed sown up, the New England Patriots have absolutely nothing to play for against the Buffalo Bills.  Thus, several plugged-in Pats reporters have suggested that Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and other New England stars could receive much of the Week 17 tilt off:

The last time the Pats had the top seed locked in, Brady played two quarters and one possession, essentially treating the contest like a glorified third preseason game.  One would expect similar treatment for Brady Sunday, especially given that he has been on the injury report all season with what was reported in October by CSN New England's Tom Curran as a "significant" ankle sprain.

Meanwhile, Gronk would likely be due for tempered expectations even if the Pats were going all-out.  The Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, having allowed double-digit production from the position just twice all year.  In their first meeting, Gronkowski was held out of the end zone, though he did accrue 94 receiving yards.

Nevertheless, both Brady and Gronk are among the shakiest fantasy commodities this week due to uncertainties in playing time.  Finding a new tight end would be especially difficult (the tight end across from Gronk, Scott Chandler, might be worth consideration), but it would be ill-advised to roll with either Sunday, even after all of the work they've done to get your fantasy team into the postseason.

Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns

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Isaiah Crowell remains the top back in the Cleveland Browns backfield, but the rookie's underrated debut season will likely come to a tough end against a Baltimore Ravens defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.  With the Ravens likely to stack the box given Cleveland's uncertain quarterback situation, Crowell might be facing the most difficult assignment of any running back this week.

Owners might hesitate to bench Crowell, given that he accrued 5.0 yards per carry and a touchdown when the two teams met back in Week 3.  Still, even with stalwart 5-technique Haloti Ngata suspended the past three games, the Ravens have given up just 3.4 yards per carry. 

Indeed, the Ravens have allowed just one score since Week 9, a trend that spells doom for a touchdown-dependent Crowell.  The rookie has not been particularly dependable on a per-play basis, as evidenced by his No. 23 DVOA ranking among running backs this season, per Football Outsiders.  But with eight scores on the year, Crowell has managed to carve out a fantasy role that exceeds his real-life value.  

Crowell seems unlikely to eclipse the 40- to 50-yard range in which he typically produces, meaning that you'd essentially be banking on him converting a goal-line carry into six points.  The Browns back has been a nice flex find for many owners, but it's safe to cut him loose with this miserable matchup on tap.

All points-against stats based on ESPN standard scoring.