Week 17 Fantasy Football Projections: Stat Predictions for Top 100 Players

Week 17 in the NFL is often the most difficult to predict.

With many teams having nothing to play for—whether that be for good or bad reasons—it's often hard to know which players will play, and for how long. That's a decidedly dangerous proposition for fantasy football. 

Alas, some leagues are crazy enough to have their championships in Week 17, while daily fantasy football will remain as active as ever. So, let's take a look at what to expect from the top 100 individual players

Note: These projections are made under the assumptions that teams will play all of their players. However, it's important to pay attention during the week to see if teams will rest their starters. The New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys are among the top candidates who may do so. 

Sunday, December 28	Time (ET)
Carolina at Atlanta	1:00 PM
Cleveland at Baltimore	1:00 PM
Dallas at Washington	1:00 PM
Indianapolis at Tennessee	1:00 PM
Detroit at Green Bay	1:00 PM
Jacksonville at Houston	1:00 PM
San Diego at Kansas City	1:00 PM
NY Jets at Miami	1:00 PM
Chicago at Minnesota	1:00 PM
Buffalo at New England	1:00 PM
Philadelphia at NY Giants	1:00 PM
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	1:00 PM
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	1:00 PM
Oakland at Denver	4:25 PM
Arizona at San Francisco	4:25 PM
St. Louis at Seattle	4:25 PM

Quarterbacks

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Andrew Luck, Ind	280 PAS, 3 TD, 1 INT
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB	255 PAS, 2 TD
3	Peyton Manning, Den	315 PAS, 3 TD, 2 INT
4	Tony Romo, Dal	225 PAS, 2 TD
5	Tom Brady, NE	265 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
6	Matt Ryan, Atl	335 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
7	Ben Roethlisberger, Pit	280 PAS, 2 TD
8	Russell Wilson, SEA	280 PAS, 40 RUS, 3 TD
9	Drew Brees, NO	320 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
10	Eli Manning, NYG	305 PAS, 3 TD
11	Philip Rivers, SD	300 PAS, 3 TD, 2 INT
12	Ryan Tannehill, Mia	310 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT
13	Derek Carr, Oak	220 PAS, 1 TD
14	Jimmy Clausen Chi	200 PAS, 1 INT
15	Matthew Stafford, Det	245 PAS, 1 TD
16	Cam Newton, Car	245 PAS, 55 RUS, 2 TD, 1 INT
17	Alex Smith, KC	250 PAS, 1 TD
18	Colin Kaepernick, SF	175 PAS, 60 RUS, 1 TD, 1 INT
19	Teddy Bridgewater, MIN	300 PAS, 2 TD
20	Joe Flacco, Bal	275 PAS, 2 TD, 1 INT

Sleeper: Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (vs. CHI)

Marc Serota/Associated Press

Trusting a rookie quarterback during the most important week of the fantasy season is a frightening thought, but Teddy Bridgewater hasn't played like a rookie over the last month. 

Bleacher Report's Darren Page put some numbers on his recent performances:

In the last two weeks, Theodore Touchdown has been on the road against the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins, a pair of top-six pass defenses, per Football Outsiders' efficiency ratings. In those games, he has completed 74.6 percent of his throws for 574 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions and an average of 16.6 fantasy points per contest.

Now, he's at home against the woeful Chicago Bears, who rank 29th in the same defensive rankings. 

Yes, please. 

Running Backs

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Arian Foster, Hou	125 RUS, 20 REC, 2 TD
2	Le'Veon Bell, Pit	85 RUS, 55 REC, 1 TD
3	Marshawn Lynch, Sea	120 RUS, 1 TD
4	DeMarco Murray, Dal	105 RUS, 1 TD
5	Eddie Lacy, GB	45 RUS, 30 REC
6	Jamaal Charles, KC	75 RUS, 30 REC
7	Matt Forte, Chi	65 RUS, 65 REC
8	Jeremy Hill, Cin	110 RUS, 1 TD
9	Alfred Morris, Wsh	80 RUS, 1 TD
10	Joique Bell, Det	60 RUS, 30 REC, 1 TD
11	Mark Ingram, NO	65 RUS
12	LeSean McCoy, Phi	110 RUS, 1 TD
13	Lamar Miller, Mia	55 RUS, 25 REC
14	C.J. Anderson, Den	105 RUS, 35 REC
15	Justin Forsett, Bal	80 RUS, 15 REC
16	Jonathan Stewart, Car	110 RUS, 1 TD
17	Chris Ivory, NYJ	65 RUS
18	Fred Jackson, Buf	35 RUS, 75 REC, 1 TD
19	Matt Asiata, Min	40 RUS, 20 REC, 1 TD
20	Tre Mason, STL	45 RUS
21	Latavius Murray, Oak	65 RUS, 20 REC, 1 TD
22	Daniel Herron, IND	75 RUS, 30 REC
23	Isaiah Crowell, Cle	65 RUS
24	Shane Vereen, NE RB	30 RUS, 45 REC
25	Steven Jackson, Atl	55 RUS
26	Giovani Bernard, Cin	45 RUS, 40 REC
27	Frank Gore, SF	55 RUS
28	Andre Williams, NYG RB	85 RUS, 1 TD
29	Toby Gerhart, Jax	50 RUS, 1 TD
30	Bishop Sankey, Ten	45 RUS

Sleeper: Joseph Randle, DAL (at WSH)

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The Dallas Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and are almost assuredly locked into a No. 3 seed. They still have an ever-so-slight chance of getting a first-round bye, but even so, they are one of the more likely candidates to rest some of their stars. 

Especially when said star has a ridiculous 427 touches on the season and had surgery on his hand a little more than a week ago. That would be DeMarco Murray, who played Sunday but admitted he wasn't 100 percent. 

"It affected me a little bit," he said after tallying a season-low 22 touches, via ESPNDallas.com's Calvin Watkins. "It was hurting throughout the game."

If the 'Boys decide to give Murray some much-deserved rest, his massive workload would likely be split between Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar. 

As evidenced on Sunday when Randle received 13 carries to Dunbar's two, the former is more suited for Murray's role while the latter is used more on obvious passing downs. 

Randle is talented. He is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the year and has broken off at least a 10-yard run in eight of 15 games despite the low usage. Even against a tough run defense, he's RB2 material if he gets a start behind Dallas' dominant O-line. 

Wide Receivers

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Dez Bryant, Dal WR	85 REC
2	Demaryius Thomas, Den	115 REC, 1 TD
3	Odell Beckham Jr., NYG	130 REC, 1 TD
4	Antonio Brown, Pit	110 REC, 2 TD
5	Emmanuel Sanders, Den	65 REC, 1 TD
6	Jordy Nelson, GB	95 REC
7	Calvin Johnson, Det	85 REC, 1 TD
8	Julio Jones, Atl	125 REC, 1 TD
9	Jeremy Maclin, Phi	90 REC
10	Randall Cobb, GB	75 REC, 1 TD
11	A.J. Green, Cin	65 REC
12	Alshon Jeffery, Chi	80 REC, 1 TD
13	Mike Evans, TB	55 REC
14	DeAndre Hopkins, Hou	65 REC
15	Golden Tate, Det	60 REC
16	Kelvin Benjamin, Car	95 REC, 1 TD
17	Julian Edelman, NE	80 REC
18	DeSean Jackson, WSH	95 REC, 1 TD
19	T.Y. Hilton, Ind	90 REC, 1 TD
20	Steve Smith, Bal	45 REC
21	Mike Wallace, Mia	60 REC, 1 TD
22	Brandon LaFell, NE	65 REC
23	Roddy White, Atl	75 REC, 1 TD
24	Josh Gordon, Cle	55 REC, 1 TD
25	Anquan Boldin, SF	60 REC
26	Torrey Smith, Bal	75 REC, 1 TD
27	Sammy Watkins, Buf	80 REC
28	Jarvis Landry, Mia	70 REC
29	Malcom Floyd, SD	65 REC, 1 TD
30	Vincent Jackson, TB	85 REC
31	Marques Colston, NO	80 REC
32	Kenny Stills, NO	75 REC, 1 TD
33	Charles Johnson, Min	90 REC, 1 TD
34	Eric Decker, NYJ	60 REC
35	Kendall Wright, Ten	70 REC

Sleeper: Doug Baldwin, (vs. STL)

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

After burning the Arizona Cardinals for seven catches and 113 yards, Doug Baldwin drew praise from former NFL scout John Middlekauff (among many others):

Baldwin, a terrific route-runner with hands made of glue, is underrated because he plays in a run-heavy offense, and when Russell Wilson does throw the ball, he spreads it around. He's an inconsistent fantasy option for the same reasons. 

However, with No. 2 wide receiver Jermaine Kearse (hamstring, likely out for Week 17) sidelined, Baldwin stands to see a significant increase in opportunities. He totaled a season-high 11 targets with Kearse out for most of Sunday night's game and will continue to serve as Wilson's go-to guy in the passing game. 

The Rams are good defensively, but that didn't matter Week 7, when Baldwin tallied seven catches, 123 yards and a touchdown in his best fantasy outing of the season.

Tight Ends

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Rob Gronkowski, NE	80 REC, 2 TD
2	Antonio Gates, SD	65 REC, 1 TD
3	Greg Olsen, Car	55 REC
4	Jimmy Graham, NO	75 REC, 1 TD
5	Jason Witten, Dal	60 REC
6	Martellus Bennett, Chi	35 REC
7	Delanie Walker, Ten	65 REC
8	Travis Kelce, KC	75 REC, 1 TD
9	Julius Thomas, Den	45 REC
10	Coby Fleener, Ind	55 REC
11	Zach Ertz, Phi	80 REC, 1 TD
12	Charles Clay, Mia	70 REC, 1 TD
13	Heath Miller, Pit	65 REC
14	Jared Cook, StL	40 REC
15	Jordan Cameron, Cle	55 REC, 1 TD

Sleeper: Charles Clay, MIA (vs. NYJ)

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

In 15 games, the New York Jets have given up 13 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position and rank dead last in the NFL in defending tight ends, per Football Outsiders. 

Charles Clay is hardly an exciting option. He's just a boring, really solid football player who is better in real life than in fantasy. However, he's averaging 6.7 targets, 4.7 receptions and 71.3 yards in three games since returning from hamstring and knee injuries and has seen at least six targets in five of his last six. 

The tight end position has been incredibly volatile this season, and this is setting up to be a big week for Clay. Start him as a TE1 with confidence.