NFL Picks Week 16: Spread Predictions and Analyzing Favorites on Upset Alert

The NFL regular season is set up perfectly for a memorably thrilling finish. Only four of the 12 playoff berths are locked up with two weeks to play. There are still division titles up for grabs, wild cards to earn and first-round byes to claim.

Week 16 should bring some clarity to a season that's had little. That said, there should still be several different scenarios in play heading into the final Sunday. Those teams on the fringe just hope their hopes, however slim, are still alive by the time the dust settles Tuesday morning.

With that in mind, let's check out the remaining slate for the league's penultimate week following the Jacksonville Jaguars' win over the Tennessee Titans on Thursday. The picks are followed by a deeper dive into a couple of notable favorites on upset alert.

Week 16 Spread Predictions

Date	Road	Home	Line	Pick
Dec. 20	Eagles	Redskins	PHI -7	PHI
Dec. 20	Chargers	49ers	SF -1	SD
Dec. 21	Vikings	Dolphins	MIA -6	MIN
Dec. 21	Ravens	Texans	BAL -4.5	HOU
Dec. 21	Lions	Bears	DET -8.5	DET
Dec. 21	Browns	Panthers	CAR -4	CAR
Dec. 21	Falcons	Saints	NO -6.5	ATL
Dec. 21	Packers	Buccaneers	GB -11.5	TB
Dec. 21	Chiefs	Steelers	PIT -3	PIT
Dec. 21	Patriots	Jets	NE -10.5	NE
Dec. 21	Giants	Rams	STL -6.5	NYG
Dec. 21	Bills	Raiders	BUF -7	OAK
Dec. 21	Colts	Cowboys	DAL -3.5	IND
Dec. 21	Seahawks	Cardinals	SEA -7.5	SEA
Dec. 22	Broncos	Bengals	DEN -3	CIN

Favorites on Upset Alert

New Orleans Saints

One year ago, the Saints went 8-0 at home en route to 11 wins and a playoff spot. Early on, it looked like they might be heading toward a similar fate by winning their first three at the Superdome. Then the unthinkable happened, as they proceeded to lose four straight on home turf.

Of course, the silver lining is that the NFC South is a complete mess. So New Orleans is still on track to make the playoffs despite a 6-8 record. But to hold that edge, it must figure out a way to end those home woes against the Atlanta Falcons.

The two teams met all the way back in Week 1, and it was a thriller. There were 17 points in the final three minutes of regulation, including a Matt Bryant 51-yard field goal to tie it as time expired. He then connected from 52 yards to win the game in overtime.

Even though the Saints are favored by a touchdown, this game has the feel of another clash that goes right down to the wire. Atlanta appears laser-focused, as shown in remarks from Matt Ryan passed along by Vaughn McClure of ESPN after the quarterback was asked about some New Orleans trash talk:

"

It doesn't matter. At the end of the day, what matters is what you do between 1-4 p.m. on Sunday afternoon. And if you're worrying about any other stuff that's going on at this point, you're wasting your time. Let's focus on what's important.

"

Ultimately, both offenses are extremely potent, especially through the air. Both defense have struggled, notably against opposing aerial attacks. So all signs point to another fast-paced, high-scoring game that isn't decided until the final minutes.

If the Saints aren't able to rediscover their home mojo, the Falcons will pull off the upset.

Buffalo Bills

Facing the Oakland Raiders on the road at this stage is a major trap game for the Bills. They are coming off an emotional home upset of the Green Bay Packers, must travel across the country and have what could be a gigantic game with the division-rival New England Patriots looming next week.

Not to mention, Buffalo owns the league's longest playoff drought at 14 years. It needs to win its final two games and hope for some help to sneak into the postseason. The Pats are obviously viewed as the bigger hurdle, but they can't afford to overlook Oakland.

The Raiders scored wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs in their last two home games. Derek Carr and the offense have shown signs of progress in the latter stages of the campaign. That must continue against a strong Buffalo defense.

But one player should be a major concern for the Bills—and they know him well. It's Khalil Mack, who starred at the collegiate level in Buffalo before becoming a terror as a rookie in the NFL. He's going to cause major problems for a weak offensive line.

Merril Hoge of the NFL on ESPN had high praise for the first-year linebacker:

The Bills are the more talented team, and their defense gives them a little more margin for error. Yet this game is far from a lock. The Raiders are well out of the playoff hunt, but this is their chance to play spoiler. Buffalo must be on high alert from the opening kickoff.