NFL Picks Week 16: Teams That Will Clinch a Playoff Spot

Four teams are already locked into the 2014 NFL playoffs, and they're unlikely to be the only ones once the dust settles on Week 16.

Here's a look at the current playoff picture.

A small handful of teams can join that quartet if the chips fall just right.

The NFL communications department released a PDF detailing all of the different playoff scenarios heading into Week 16. Of the teams with a door into the postseason this week, the three below have the best chance of clinching a bid.

Predictions

Matchup	Spread	Straight-Up Pick
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins	PHI -7.5	Eagles
San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers	SF -1.5	Chargers
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins	MIA -7.5	Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans	BAL -5	Ravens
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears	DET -9.5	Lions
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers	CAR -3	Browns
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	NO -7	Saints
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	GB -13	Packers
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -2.5	Steelers
New England Patriots at New York Jets	NE -11.5	Patriots
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams	STL -7	Giants
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders	BUF -7.5	Bills
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -3.5	Colts
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	SEA -9	Seahawks
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals	DEN -3.5	Broncos

Teams on Verge of Clinching

Detroit Lions

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

The Detroit Lions have a few different avenues into the playoffs this weekend. With the dominoes falling just right, they could manage to secure both the NFC North and a bye in the opening week of the postseason.

The simple math is that a Lions victory means they at the very least clinch a wild-card berth. With Detroit traveling to Chicago to take on a struggling Bears team, the odds are pretty good that the Lions will join the postseason club.

Head coach Marc Trestman finally pulled the trigger, sending Jay Cutler to the bench, per ESPN's Chris Mortensen:

That was just the beginning of the drama. ESPNChicago.com's Jeff Dickerson reported that dissension may be growing in the Bears locker room, in part following Cutler's demotion.

Some players feel that Trestman isn't dishing out adequate punishment to offensive coordinator Aaron Kromer after he revealed himself, per the Chicago Tribune's Matt Biggs (subscription required), to be an anonymous source who bashed Cutler in the press:

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But while noting that a faction of Cutler detractors exists inside Halas Hall, the general belief is that the respective punishments for Cutler and Kromer are gravely inconsistent, after the Bears offensive coordinator received 'basically a slap on the wrist' for his public indiscretions when he tearfully revealed in a team meeting Dec. 8 that he was the anonymous source cited in a published NFL Media report that was highly critical of the quarterback.

Kromer coached the Bears from the sideline during Monday night's 31-15 loss to the New Orleans Saints and is expected to finish out the season.

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All of this is going on as Chicago welcomes in the top team in the NFC North.

The Lions beat the Bears, 34-17, at home back in Week 13. Matthew Stafford had his best performance of the season, throwing for 390 yards and two touchdowns.

Chicago ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), per Football Outsiders, so Detroit is looking at a very favorable matchup in that regard.

According to The Weather Channel, the forecast calls for cold temperatures in Chicago and only a small chance of precipitation, which means the conditions shouldn't be completely adverse to the pass. Stafford will likely fail to match his numbers from the first meeting, but the drop won't be significant enough to open a door for the Bears.

The Lions should cruise to victory.

Prediction: Detroit 30, Chicago 13

Pittsburgh Steelers

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

The Pittsburgh Steelers only have one scenario in which they get into the postseason in Week 16, but it's rather straightforward. If they beat the Kansas City Chiefs, they secure a place in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh will want this game to turn into a track meet. The Steelers have averaged a little over 33 points a game over the last nine weeks. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 14th in the league in points per game (23) and haven't had a wide receiver catch a touchdown pass all season.

At the start of December, Jay Binkley of 610 Sports in Kansas City wondered whether the Chiefs' lack of a top-end wide receiver would be their ultimate undoing.

Kansas City will also have to overcome what will be a raucous Heinz Field crowd. With so much on the line, you can bet on Steelers fans doing everything in their power to throw the Chiefs off their game.

"We just need the Terrible Towels going crazy. Hopefully we make them wave their arms all game," said Steelers cornerback William Gay, per Teresa Varley of Steelers.com. "I need it to be rocking. Sometimes you see Heinz Field kind of shaking and that’s what we need this week."

As long as the Steelers can get the score in the mid-to-high 20s, they should pick up the victory. Pittsburgh would also be wise to use a healthy dose of Le'Veon Bell against a defense ranking 26th against the run, per FO.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Chiefs 20

New Orleans Saints

David Banks/Getty Images

The New Orleans Saints will need a little bit of help if they're going to clinch the division this week. Not only do they need to beat the Atlanta Falcons, but they also need the Cleveland Browns to beat the Carolina Panthers.

The Saints should hold up their end of the bargain. One of the few defenses worse than New Orleans' is Atlanta's. The Falcons are allowing 409.9 yards a game, compared to 390.1 for the Saints. The Falcons have also lost three of their last four games.

Atlanta might be without Julio Jones, whom D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported is still considered questionable. According to Ledbetter, everything hinges on a Saturday workout:

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Jones has a big test run on Saturday before the team leaves for New Orleans.

How he recovers from the run by Sunday morning will determine if he will play against the Saints. Falcons coach Mike Smith said this week he expects Jones will be ready to play Sunday.

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The Falcons are a vastly different team without Jones on the field, and even if he plays, the possibility that he'd be somewhat limited is enough for the Saints to get the edge.

The bigger question is whether the Browns have any sort of chance against the Panthers.

It's hard to get any sort of read on Carolina. It's won its last two games but preceded that with a six-game losing streak.

The Panthers get a boost in the shape of Cam Newton. Albert Breer of NFL.com reported that Newton's listed as probable, meaning there's little chance he misses another game:

Carolina will be considered heavy favorites with Newton healthy, especially after the Browns' lifeless 30-0 defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals.

The good news from a Cleveland perspective is that the team can't possibly be worse than it was last week. Johnny Manziel's bound to have an adjustment period. It's unfair to expect any rookie QB to come firing right out of the gates, especially one with Manziel's skill set.

In this week's batch of expert picks, Bleacher Report's Rivers McCown believes that the Browns' fortunes will turn around this weekend:

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All right, yeah, Johnny Manziel was hot garbage last week. He was also a first-game starter against a very good Bengals defense. Carolina's pass defense is a little less talented—at least to the point where I believe Manziel can not completely lose the game all by himself again.

And in a game between the running attacks, I'll take Cleveland's offensive line and running backs over Carolina's. Add the fact that Carolina is an NFC South team and I'll say Cleveland wins a mostly unwatchable game of football.

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This game won't be pretty, with Cleveland edging out Carolina and getting New Orleans one step closer to the playoffs.

Prediction: Saints 28, Falcons 20

Prediction: Browns 17, Panthers 13

Note: All spread info is courtesy of Odds Shark.