NFL Predictions Week 16: Upset Picks and Projections

We keep learning that we just cannot trust anyone in the NFL anymore.

Even teams with a lot to lose often fail to come through in big moments. Two weeks ago, the San Francisco 49ers essentially ended their playoff hopes with a home loss to the Oakland Raiders. In Week 15, the Green Bay Packers missed out on a chance to take control of the NFC North with a loss to the Buffalo Bills.

No matter what you expect, there will certainly be some upsets in Week 16 as well.

Here are picks for each game with a breakdown of the most likely upsets for the upcoming weekend in the NFL.

Date	Away	Home	Pick ATS*
Dec. 18	Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX -3
Dec. 20	Philadelphia Eagles	Washington Redskins	PHI -9
Dec. 20	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	SD +2
Dec. 21	Kansas City Chiefs	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -3
Dec. 21	Detroit Lions	Chicago Bears	DET -7
Dec. 21	New England Patriots	New York Jets	NE -10
Dec. 21	Cleveland Browns	Carolina Panthers	CAR -3.5
Dec. 21	Atlanta Falcons	New Orleans Saints	ATL +5.5
Dec. 21	Minnesota Vikings	Miami Dolphins	MIN +7
Dec. 21	Green Bay Packers	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	GB -10
Dec. 21	Baltimore Ravens	Houston Texans	HOU +4.5
Dec. 21	New York Giants	St. Louis Rams	STL -5
Dec. 21	Indianapolis Colts	Dallas Cowboys	DAL -3
Dec. 21	Buffalo Bills	Oakland Raiders	BUF -6
Dec. 21	Seattle Seahawks	Arizona Cardinals	ARI +8
Dec. 22	Denver Broncos	Cincinnati Bengals	DEN -3.5

Upset Alert

San Diego Chargers (+2) over San Francisco 49ers

After being eliminated from the playoffs, San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke had a message for the fans:

Of course, it's one thing to say the team is not giving up, and it's another to actually show up being ready to play. The 49ers are a team that has gone to the NFC Championship Game three years in a row, and for the first time since Jim Harbaugh was coach, there is nothing to play for.

Additionally, it's not as though San Francisco has been playing well even with something at stake. The team has lost three games in a row, scoring a total of 23 points in that stretch. The offense hasn't reached 20 points in a game since Week 10.

On the other hand, the San Diego Chargers have a lot more at stake this week. At 8-6, they are still very much in the AFC Wild Card race if they can win the last two games. The defense has played well over the past two weeks against the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos, but the offense hasn't been able to capitalize.

The good news is that as long as Philip Rivers can spread the ball around and avoid mistakes, he should be able to do enough to win.

Houston Texans (+4.5) over Baltimore Ravens

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

The quarterback situation in Houston has gone from bad to worse. ESPN's Adam Schefter notes how injuries have led to desperation:

Even with these issues, the defense has remained outstanding behind MVP candidate J.J. Watt. Nick Wright of CBS Houston was impressed with the performance in the 17-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts:

With the way Arian Foster can carry an offense with his running ability, the Texans have a chance to beat anyone despite the inexperience at quarterback.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens defense has struggled lately, allowing the third-most passing yards in the NFL. If the Texans can at least get to 20 points against the inconsistent defense, they will have a chance to win.

Houston is still in the playoff race if it earns a win, so you can imagine the squad fighting as hard as it can for an upset.

Atlanta Falcons (+5.5) over New Orleans Saints

USA TODAY Sports

It wasn't too long ago that we thought the New Orleans Saints were invincible in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome; however, this is no longer the case as they have lost four in a row at home.

All of a sudden, no one is scared about going into New Orleans to try to win a game.

The Atlanta Falcons certainly have the ability to come in and pull off the upset after close losses over the past two weeks. They haven't lost by more than a touchdown since Week 7 and have showed they are still willing to fight for a win.

More importantly, the squad has shown it can win against the rest of the division:

In recent weeks, Atlanta has improved defensively, and it still has a dynamic offense, especially if Julio Jones is healthy enough to play. Even after the Saints' recent win over the Chicago Bears, they are too inconsistent to expect anything but an upset in this one.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for the latest breaking news and analysis.