Laying Out the Postseason Scenarios for Lions, Packers in NFC Race

The 10-4 Detroit Lions and 10-4 Green Bay Packers each have clear paths to the postseason, beginning with mostly straight-forward clinching scenarios in Week 16.

For the division-leading Lions, the situation is as simple as it gets: beat the 5-9 Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday, and Detroit can clinch its place in the final field of six in the NFC. 

The Packers can also secure a spot Sunday with a win over the 2-12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but Green Bay also needs a little bit of help. If the Packers combine a win in Tampa Bay with a loss or tie by the Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington on Saturday) or a win or tie by the Dallas Cowboys (vs. Indianapolis Colts on Sunday), Green Bay is in. 

Winning in Week 16 isn't even necessary. Both teams can actually clinch with a loss Sunday and some help from around the league. The Lions are in just as long as Philadelphia loses to Washington, while the Packers can clinch with simply a Philadelphia loss and Dallas win or tie. 

Confused yet? 

Here are the playoff-clinching scenarios for both teams in Week 16, laid out in more simple terms: 

Lions (10-4)

1. Win vs. Chicago

2. Tie vs. Chicago and Philadelphia tie or loss vs. Washington

3. Philadelphia loss vs. Washington

Packers (10-4)

1. Win vs. Tampa Bay and Philadelphia loss or tie vs. Washington

2. Win vs. Tampa Bay and Dallas win or tie vs. Indianapolis

3. Tie vs. Tampa Bay and Philadelphia loss vs. Washington

4. Tie vs. Tampa Bay, Philadelphia tie vs. Washington and Dallas win or tie vs. Indianapolis

5. Philadelphia loss vs. Washington and Dallas win or tie vs. Indianapolis

(A full look at the NFL's clinching scenarios in Week 16 can be found here.)

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The Lions' best-case scenario in Week 16 would clinch both the division title and a first-round bye. For that to happen, the Lions need to beat the Bears and have the Buccaneers beat the Packers and the Colts beat the Cowboys.

In such a scenario, Detroit would win the NFC North without any result needed in Week 17 at Lambeau Field and clinch a spot among the top two seeds in the conference over Dallas. 

How would a Lions win and Packers loss clinch the division before the season finale? The easy answer: tiebreakers. If the Packers then beat the Lions in Week 17, the two teams would both finish 11-5. The following division tiebreakers would apply, in order:

1. Head-to-head (1-1)

2. Division record (Lions 5-1, Packers 5-1)

3. Common games (Lions 9-3, Packers 9-3)

4. Conference record (Lions 9-3, Packers 8-4)*

*Lions win the division via conference record. 

A Lions win plus a Colts win over the Cowboys gives Detroit a first-round bye because Dallas would lose out on tiebreakers, even if the two clubs both finished at 11-5. The Lions would also possess a better conference record than the Cowboys, who are currently 7-4 inside the NFC. 

	Record	Divison	Conference
1. Arizona Cardinals	11-3	3-1	8-2
2. Detroit Lions	10-4	4-0	8-2
3. Dallas Cowboys	10-4	3-2	7-4
4. New Orleans Saints	6-8	2-2	5-5
5. Seattle Seahawks	10-4	3-1	8-2
6. Green Bay Packers	10-4	4-1	7-3
7. Philadelphia Eagles	9-5	3-1	5-5

Of course, the most likely scenario in Week 16 is that the Lions and Packers both win and set up a dramatic finish. 

Detroit will be a heavy favorite in Chicago. The Bears are coming off another embarrassing defeat Monday night, in which Chicago dropped to 2-5 at Soldier Field with a fourth home loss of 13 or more points this season. Just 19 days ago, the Lions throttled the Bears by 17 points in Detroit. 

The Packers will be expected to bounce back from last Sunday's upset loss in Buffalo and probably in a big way. The Buccaneers are a lowly 2-12 this season, including 0-6 in Tampa Bay. Crazy things happen every week in the NFL, but Green Bay losing to a team ranked 27th in scoring offense and 25th in scoring defense just doesn't seem plausible. 

Wins from both the Lions and Packers would set up a thrilling, winner-take-all season finale. The victor in that game would win the NFC North and a week off in the postseason, either as the No. 1 or 2 seed. 

If either the Lions or Packers win out and finish 12-4, both teams are guaranteed at least a first-round bye in the NFC.

	Week 16	Week 17
Lions	at Chicago Bears (5-9)	at Green Bay Packers
Packers	at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)	vs. Detroit Lions

On the flip side, the Lions could miss out on the postseason by losing to both Chicago and Green Bay and having both the Eagles and Cowboys finish the season 2-0. In that scenario, the 10-6 Lions are out as the 11-5 Eagles slide in as the NFC's No. 6 seed. 

The Packers can miss out on the proceedings with a similar collapse. Another scenario—in which Green Bay beats Tampa Bay but loses to Detroit in Week 17, while a perfect storm develops among Dallas, Philadelphia, Seattle and Arizona—could also keep out an 11-win Packers team. But there are so many variables at play that such a scenario isn't even worth discussing until next week. 

Both the Packers and Lions control their destiny. Win just one game, and the postseason is a near lock. Win two games, and the reward is a division title and first-round bye. 

The stakes are high, but that's how you want football to be in December. Luckily for the Lions and Packers, winning is the only thing either club needs to worry about.  

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2