NFL Picks Week 15: Odds and Over-Under Advice Before Sunday Kickoff

Luckily only two teams play on Thursday night.

In yet another stinker on short rest, the Arizona Cardinals sleepwalked their way to an ugly victory over the St. Louis Rams. Neither team scored a touchdown during a defensive showdown that veered far below any reasonable over-under line.

With that clunker out of the way, let's turn to some more intriguing bouts, paying particular attention to two Super Bowl contenders led by prolific offenses. While one will light up the scoreboard against a favorable opponent, the other will have to employ a more reserved approach to avoid an upset.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	O/U	O/U Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons	PIT -3	PIT	55	Over
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens	BAL -13.5	BAL	45	Under
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills	GB -4	GB	50	Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers	CAR -3	TB	41	Over
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns	CLE -1	CIN	44	Under
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts	IND -7	IND	49	Over
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs	KC -10	OAK	41.5	Under
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots	NE -7.5	NE	48	Over
Washington Redskins at New York Giants	NYG -6.5	NYG	46.5	Under
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers	DEN -5	DEN	50.5	Over
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans	NYJ -3	NYJ	42	Under
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions	DET -7.5	MIN	41.5	Under
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers	SEA -9	SEA	38	Under
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -3.5	DAL	55	Over
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears	NO -2.5	NO	54	Over

Take the Over: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (O/U 49)

Bob Levey/Getty Images

The Indianapolis Colts can pass. The Houston Texans cannot stop the pass. 

Houston ranks No. 28 in yards allowed through the air, and Andrew Luck leads the league with 4,305 yards—an average of 331.2 per game. He continues his ascent to superstardom by shredding defenses deep, as highlighted by Pro Football Focus.

"

Andrew Luck leads the league with 36 completions on balls thrown 20 yards or over in the air. Hoyer in 2nd (29) with Big Ben/ Ryan 3rd (26)

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 11, 2014"

The math checked out during Week 6, when Luck compiled 370 passing yards and three touchdowns during a 33-28 victory. T.Y. Hilton especially had a day, rattling off 223 receiving yards and a score.

During his three years in the NFL, Hilton has routinely decimated Houston, posting 611 yards and six scores through five tilts.

Date	Rec.	Rec. YDs	TDs
10/9/14	9	223	1
12/15/13	8	78	0
11/3/13	7	121	3
12/30/12	4	111	1
12/16/12	3	78	1

Averaging 31.3 points per game, the Colts should have little trouble hitting that mark against a matchup tailor-made to their strength. Don't assume a one-sided blowout, either.

The Colts relinquish 4.4 yards per carry, guiding Arian Foster to 109 rushing yards and two touchdowns when they last met. Ryan Fitzpatrick even authored 9.2 yards per passing attempt in a close loss.

Losing Andre Johnson—questionable to play due to a concussion—would sting a bit, as he tallied 99 yards and a touchdown in their earlier bout while DeAndre Hopkins was stymied to one catch.  

Meanwhile, Vontae Davis returned to practice after missing last week's game with a concussion of his own. That injury swing dampens Houston's chances of orchestrating an upset, but the Texans only need Foster and garbage-time passing in prevent defense to score 17-20 points while Indianapolis does the heavy lifting.

Take the Under: Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (O/U 50)

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

On the defensive end, the Buffalo Bills are for real.

A limited offense puts their playoff hopes in peril as they host the Green Bay Packers, who are riding a five-game winning streak atop the NFC North. Although containing MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers is a daunting task, Buffalo just muted another legend last weekend.

As the Denver Broncos continue their commitment to the run, Peyton Manning threw for a season-low 173 yards with no scores and two interceptions. According to ESPN Stats & Info, that marks his first game without a passing touchdown in quite some time.

"

Peyton Manning's streak of consecutive games with a Pass TD ends at 51 (3rd-longest streak in NFL history)

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) December 8, 2014"

Now Rodgers will try to combat the NFL's No. 5 passing defense, which leads the NFL with 48 sacks. He acknowledged the upcoming challenge to ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky.

Over Green Bay's winning streak, Rodgers has fired 16 passing touchdowns to zero interceptions. He has done so against three bottom-seven passing defenses (Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta), one middle-pack unit (New England) and the Minnesota Vikings' No. 6 group against the aerial attack.

When they last played the Vikings, the Packers attained a 24-21 victory by bottling Rodgers' usual assault for a run-heavy tactic. Rodgers settled for a 209-yard, two-touchdown game with Minnesota submitting only 308 total yards.

That's precisely the style of victory to anticipate here. Green Bay etches out a tough victory on the road but not with another monster offensive showing. Its defense showed vulnerability against the Falcons, but Buffalo doesn't boast the offensive firepower to exploit it for more than a low-20 point tally.