Week 15 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

If you're looking for some extra spending money during the holiday season, placing wagers on a few NFL games is certainly an option. However, the house always has the advantage, so you should do some early research—especially this time of year.

The league's playoff race is heating up, making many Week 15 contests difficult to predict due to their postseason implications. We should expect to see tight contests between playoff contenders as a result. Since these matchups will be the most difficult to predict, it makes sense to delve a little deeper into them.

Here's a look at the full 16-game slate for Week 15, each contest's corresponding odds and predicted winner against the spread, and some in-depth analysis for two of the week's toughest matchups to project.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Arizona at St. Louis	STL -4.5	Rams	As of now, the Rams are the better version of the Cardinals.
Miami at New England	NE -8	Patriots	Ryan Tannehill is struggling, and he won't keep up with Tom Brady.
Green Bay at Buffalo	GB -4.5	Packers	Buffalo keeps this respectable, but there will be too much Aaron Rodgers.
Oakland at Kansas City	KC -10.5	Raiders	Get ready for Latavius Murray, part two.
Jacksonville at Baltimore	BAL -14	Jaguars	Baltimore's secondary will allow Jacksonville to stay within 14 points.
Houston at Indianapolis	IND -7	Texans	See analysis below.
Pittsburgh at Atlanta	PIT -2.5	Falcons	See analysis below.
Cincinnati at Cleveland	CLE -1	Bengals	A division game isn't the best way to start Johnny Manziel's career.
Washington at NY Giants	NYG -7	Giants	Colt McCoy is ailing, and the Giants offense is surging.
Tampa Bay at Carolina	CAR -3	Panthers	Derek Anderson already beat Tampa Bay once this year.
NY Jets at Tennessee	NYJ -2	Jets	There will be too much Jets running game for the Titans to handle.
Denver at San Diego	DEN -4	Broncos	Peyton Manning will bounce back against San Diego's secondary.
Minnesota at Detroit	DET -8	Lions	Don't expect many points from Minnesota's offense this week.
San Francisco at Seattle	SEA -10	Seahawks	Colin Kaepernick's poor play makes this rivalry less interesting.
Dallas at Philadelphia	PHI -3	Cowboys	It's more difficult to trust Mark Sanchez than Tony Romo, even in December.
New Orleans at Chicago	NO -3	Saints	Expect a bounce-back showing from Drew Brees on Monday.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 10.

Breaking Down Toughest Week 15 Calls

Houston Texans (+7) at Indianapolis Colts

Generally, it's a little difficult to bet against the Colts when they're favored by one score or less, but that's going to be the call this time around in a division clash against the Texans.

Houston's offense has come alive since Ryan Fitzpatrick regained his starting job and Arian Foster returned from injury. After Fitzpatrick put up six passing touchdowns on the Tennessee Titans, Foster followed up with a 127-yard rushing performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Meanwhile, the team's defense has been playing much better. J.J. Watt and Co. have held opponents to 22 points or fewer in five of their last six games, going 4-2 in that span. A plus-12 turnover differential—good enough for second in the league—has been a key factor in the team's recent success.

That's the area of the game that is concerning for Andrew Luck and the Colts right now. Indianapolis has struggled in the turnover department lately, dealing with numerous unforced errors in recent games.

The team barely survived the struggling Cleveland Browns in Week 14 after committing four turnovers, and just two games prior, the Colts lost three fumbles against the Jaguars.

According to Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star, the team has recognized the issue:

When the Texans and the Colts last met in Week 6, Indianapolis turned the ball over twice and won by just five points. If the team's current giveaway trend keeps up in Week 15, the final score's margin will be similarly close.

Prediction: Colts 31, Texans 27

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)

It may seem strange to go with Atlanta following Pittsburgh's 42-21 drubbing of the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14; however, the Falcons have finally hit their stride on the offensive side of the ball and have a favorable matchup against the Steelers porous secondary.

Let's take a look at the recent trends that give the Falcons the advantage here:

Steelers' Opponent	Pass Yds Allowed	Pass TD Allowed	Takeaways
Falcons' Opponent	Pass Yds Gained	Pass TD Gained	Giveaways
New Orleans Saints	257	5	0
Cincinnati Bengals	302	2	2
Arizona Cardinals	361	2	1
Green Bay Packers	375	4	1

Those statistics set up Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan for a big day. Pittsburgh's secondary has been struggling of late, and Julio Jones appears to be in top form coming off a 259-yard performance against the Green Bay Packers.

Jones appears in line to play Sunday, via D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, though. The Falcons aren't going to blow the Steelers out of the water. While Atlanta will put up some points, Pittsburgh will as well. After all, we're dealing with a matchup between Antonio Brown and Atlanta's 32nd-ranked pass defense and Le'Veon Bell against the Falcons' 21st-ranked run defense.

So, if both offenses are going to light up the scoreboard, why do the Falcons have the upper hand?

Aside from that Week 14 drubbing of the Bengals, the Steelers haven't been a good road team this season. They've lost to the Baltimore Ravens, the Browns and the New York Jets, and they defeated both the Jaguars and the Titans by one-score margins.

Atlanta is on a roll right now, and it will take advantage of a weak secondary that hasn't been solid away from Heinz Field.

Prediction: Falcons 34, Steelers 31