Dallas Mavericks' 1st Real Test Begins Now
While the Dallas Mavericks' enchanting offense has awed the NBA, the team has not managed to break into the upper tier of the extremely competitive Western Conference so far. With a tough December and January ahead, a lot of of unanswered questions surrounding the Mavs should iron out.
The Mavericks started this month out relatively well. They beat the Chicago Bulls and the Milwaukee Bucks, and bounced back from a loss to the Phoenix Suns with another 125-102 demolition of the Bucks on Dec. 7. Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki seemingly shook off all the rust, combining for 49 points in that game.
Dallas sits at 16-6 right now, which is good for the seventh seed in the West. It's not a bad record by any means, but it could be better considering the Mavericks' league-leading offensive rating.
According to ESPN.com, they have had the sixth-easiest schedule to start the season, playing against 12 Eastern Conference teams in their first 22 contests. The average winning percentage of the teams they faced is .455. No team in the Western Conference has had an easier run of games.
Considering how soft their schedule has been, the Mavs remain a bit of a mystery. In the month of December and early in January, things will get significantly tougher.
In 11 of their upcoming 16 games, the Mavericks will go up against playoff-caliber opposition. With a harsh slate of games ahead, Dallas' record could experience some unflattering swings.
The Good and The Bad
So far, the Mavs have showed both good signs and bad habits.
The fact that the offense has clicked so well, despite a roster turnover, is reassuring. Even with Parsons—Dallas' big free-agent acquisition last summer—struggling, the team has collectively formed an almost unstoppable offensive force.
With excellent screeners and plenty of perimeter players who can shoot and drive, the Mavs are a headache to deal with when they don't settle for mediocre shots.
Unfortunately, some smart defenses have recently found ways to slow down the onslaught.
Elite defensive teams have often opted to pack the paint, contain Dallas' drives and live with giving up perimeter shots. The Mavs have been streaky when it comes to three-point shooting, which has cost them games when teams implement such strategies.
The Mavericks' offensive system requires patience, which the players sometimes forget.
When they probe a defense and try to break it down over 24 seconds, more often than not they discover holes. When they settle for a mid-range jumper early in the shot clock, the opposition wins.
Moving forward, Dallas will meet a couple of elite defensive teams, and head coach Rick Carlisle will have to help his team adjust the offense accordingly.
While the offense remains an optimistic part of their foundation, the Mavs have also developed a couple of bad habits. They have a collective tendency to lose focus and give up big runs after seemingly controlling the game. The lack of reliable effort on the defensive end is at the core of this issue.
For instance, in the Dec. 5 118-106 defeat to the Phoenix Suns, Dallas didn't look ready to play at all. Carlisle's team had just swept a four-game East Coast road trip, but came out completely flat upon returning home.
In that particular game, the Mavs gave up 40 points in the opening quarter, mostly by getting killed in transition.
They eventually picked it up as the game progressed and managed to make it a two-possession game in the fourth period. Then, with just over nine minutes remaining, Phoenix was allowed to put together this sequence:
The first possession is excusable—the Suns grab a long rebound, and it's hard to hang with Goran Dragic in transition.
After coming up empty on the next play, a majority of Dallas' players are on the right side of the ball. However, they casually jog back and Dragic needs just one simple pass to create anther easy basket.
When the Mavs are missing shots, it gives opponents opportunities to push the ball. From what we've seen so far, that is exactly what every team should do, considering how lethargic Dallas is getting back.
Other than a shocking 111-100 defeat to the crippled Indiana Pacers on Nov. 24, these bad habits are not yet reflected in Dallas' record. With a significantly tougher schedule ahead, the Mavs will either be exposed or step up to the challenge and fix the issues.
Tough Road Ahead
The Mavs might rank sixth-lowest in strength of schedule right now, but that is about to change. Here is a brief summary of their next 16 games:
- Eight games against each conference.
- Four games against Western teams ranked ahead of Dallas.
- Eight opponents with a winning percentage (and Oklahoma City Thunder with healthy superstars).
- Four back-to-backs, all with overnight flights (no back-to-backs at home).
- Seven games against top-11 defenses.
Coach Carlisle has already rested his superstar Nowitzki in certain games, and will likely face some dilemmas with playing time during this stretch. The German himself is trying to be smart about it.
“I do have a lot of miles now on my legs and I do plan on playing with this team for a long time hopefully this season," Nowitzki said according to Star-Telegram.com's Dwain Price. "So if it helps me play better down the stretch or even if this night off here helps me play better on a back-to-back next week, then that’ll be great.”
Needless to say, it's not going to be easy to find time off. The Mavericks will take on the gritty Memphis Grizzlies on Dec. 9, and the NBA's current best team, the Golden State Warriors, just four days later. Those two games should be very telling of where the Mavericks are right now.
If the Mavs fail to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, the Warriors and the Grizzlies are both realistic first-round matchups.
Both teams are elite defensively and have what it takes to slow down Dallas' offense. They also present tricky challenges at the other end.
The Warriors' three-point shooting and versatile passing tear apart any shaky perimeter defense. The Grizzlies have also thrived offensively this season, in huge part thanks to Marc Gasol's MVP-caliber year. Carlisle will certainly have his hands full trying to figure out how to stop those teams.
The Mavericks will also host the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs on Dec. 20.
Shortly after that, they'll have a tough back-to-back against the floor-spacing Atlanta Hawks and the speedy Suns. Then, through Jan. 10, Dallas will face the Washington Wizards, Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers, among other teams.
No team in the West has had a softer schedule than the Mavericks so far. Their inflated offensive numbers, while still by far the best in the league, are starting to come down a little. Facing a lot of tough defenses could bring Dallas' offensive efficiency down to human levels.
Scrutinizing a 16-6 team is a little silly. Still, there are bad habits developing that will be punished by better teams, and that could put things into perspective.
As the competition ramps up further, it should become clearer whether the Mavs will contend for one of the top spots in the West or settle in among the lower seeds yet again.
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