Every Star MLB Free-Agent Signing, Trade Acquisition's 2015 Fantasy Outlook
The few devoted fantasy baseball players who manufactured 2015 rankings will already need to make several amendments after a busy offseason start.
A few prominent free agents wasted little time picking their new employer, and only one marquee star resisted a change of scenery. Such movement is hardly out of the ordinary, but who expected two stars to get traded in November?
Plenty of game-changers are still milking their job search and frequenting the trade rumor mill, so this is far from a final report. In fact, two hitters rushed to join the discussion by signing just in time.
Four months remain until Opening Day, but fantasy managers already have a laundry list of changes to examine before setting their 2015 stock. Let's break down the early batch of signees and trade acquisitions.
Quick Hits
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Adam LaRoche, 1B, Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox love Adam LaRoche's bat so much that they're giving him $25 million to occupy the designated hitter slot for two years. LaRoche is what he is: an aging, low-average power source who can't hit lefties.
Anyone who can hit 25 long balls deserves a look as a corner infielder or utility play, but beware natural regression hitting the 35-year-old.
Adam Lind, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
Swapped for starting pitcher Marco Estrada, Adam Lind addresses the Milwaukee Brewers' glaring hole at first base. Last year offers a poor representation of his skills, as his .321 average and six homers both vary greatly from his track record.
Trust the full body of work, which paints him as a .270-.275 hitter with 20-homer power. Now he needs to stay healthy after playing just 114 games per season over the past four years.
Torii Hunter, OF, Minnesota Twins
Hot off the press, the Minnesota Twins and Torii Hunter will reunite after agreeing to a one-year deal on Tuesday night, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. It's a feel-good move, but one with negative fantasy repercussions.
Hunter's power already stagnated with 17 homers in each of the past two seasons. In Target Field, that subdued number will only fall further. The Twins and Detroit Tigers are also miles apart offensively, so the 39-year-old can't placate his vanishing power and speed with counting numbers.
A.J. Burnett, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
When he last suited up for the Pittsburgh Pirates, A.J. Burnett recorded a 3.30 ERA and 209 strikeouts. Maybe that's why he took a pay cut to spurn the Philadelphia Phillies for Pittsburgh.
Despite his masterful 2013 campaign, it's tough to get on board after his disastrous 2014, during which the 37-year-old posted a 4.59 ERA with 96 walks. A failed value play last year, he's no longer worth the hassle at this stage of his career.
Marco Estrada, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Marco Estrada allowed 29 home runs with a 49.5 fly-ball percentage last season. Now he moves to the Rogers Centre, and his sinking strikeout rate will flop further in the American League. He's not mixed-league relevant anymore.
Zach Duke, RP, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have no clear incumbent to handle closing duties, and they just shelled out $15 million for Zach Duke. Should they give him the ninth inning, his 11.35 K/9 rate and 2.45 ERA will attract attention as a popular target.
Given his 4.79 second-half ERA, there's also concern that he peaked early in 2014. And Chicago still has time to bring in more bullpen reinforcements.
Michael Cuddyer, OF, New York Mets
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Michael Cuddyer was presented the opportunity to make $15.3 million living in hitter's heaven next season. He instead chose less money to play for the New York Mets.
He received an extra year of job security, but his 2015 yearly salary tumbles after inking a two-year, $21 million contract at the dawn of free agency. As is the case for any position player departing the Colorado Rockies, his fantasy appeal takes a major nosedive.
During his three years in Colorado, Cuddyer hit .329/.393/.591 with 26 homers at Coors Field. Stud. On the road, however, that slash line regresses mightily to .286/.332/.463 along with 20 homers.
Hey, that's worthwhile, too. The 35-year-old outfielder won't plummet to obscurity with the Mets, who brought in the Citi Field fences for the second time since opening five years ago. Of course, this is assuming he stays healthy, as he played just 49 games last season due to a hamstring ailment.
Now that everyone is smart enough to quickly identify all these hindrances, nobody will draft Cuddyer expecting a .330-hitting monster. His value will drop considerably, so drafters can't cross him off their rankings. As a late-round grab, he's an interesting target who can hit .280 with 15-20 homers and solid counting numbers in Flushing.
Victor Martinez, 1B/DH, Detroit Tigers
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There's little to report here, as Victor Martinez is the first star free agent to stay put this offseason. He'll remain with the Detroit Tigers for four more years, a deep commitment for a 35-year-old designated hitter, but a positive for his 2015 value.
He'll still bat alongside Miguel Cabrera, and he can only hope J.D. Martinez proves his breakout was no mere fluke. Yet coming off a career campaign, the older Martinez is a risky fantasy endeavor.
After hitting .335/.409/.565 with an MLB-low 6.6 strikeout percentage, his value will rightly rocket up the cheat sheets. Average fluctuates, but it's reasonable to expect another .300 clip for the career .306 hitter. The 32 home runs, however, stand out after tallying 26 combined over the previous two seasons.
Players rarely enjoy a sustained power barrage this late in their tenure, and Martinez averages 20 long balls per year over the nine full seasons he worked. That's a more reasonable projection for 2015, which makes him a nice fantasy weapon, but one that will cost too much.
Billy Butler, 1B/DH, Oakland Athletics
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In Billy Beane's first, but not last odd offseason move, he handed Billy Butler a three-year, $30 million deal on the heels of a power outage.
Last season, the designated hitter popped only nine home runs with a .379 slugging percentage for the Kansas City Royals. While he played enough games at first base (37) to snag eligibility, no fantasy managers had any use of a .271 hitter with no power.
Yet the Oakland Athletics saw his struggles as a buy-low opportunity, and fantasy gamers hunting for bounce-back bargains could try the same gambit. During the previous five seasons, Butler hit no lower than .289 with an on-base percentage consistently above .360. Although rarely a power threat, he averaged nearly 20 homers a season over that stretch, offering at least 15 each year.
The new scenery does little to boost his outlook, as he transitions from one pitchers' park to another. Although his career .912 OPS against southpaws could create fears of a platoon, he also posts an above-average .771 mark against righties, and Beane wouldn't have given him $30 million to take the short end of a timeshare.
First base is deep, so Butler is no more than a bench flier in a standard, 10- or 12-team mixed league without corner infielders. In deeper formats, a simple, reasonable return to .290 and 15 homers makes him a valuable late-round get.
Jason Heyward, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
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When given the chance to trade a 25-year-old who led the team in WAR despite failing to fully meet his potential, how could the Atlanta Braves resist trading Jason Heyward?
Easy. "No." Well it's too late now, as he is now a member of the St. Louis Cardinals. While Atlanta failed to appreciate his Gold Glove defense, fantasy owners didn't enjoy that luxury. Nor could many of them revel in his .351 on-base percentage driven by a 10.3 walk percentage.
Instead, all they got was a .271 average, 11 home runs and 20 steals with 132 combined runs and RBI.
Other than the unexpected speed, yuck. Nobody is counting on the former top prospect to broach .300, but they'd like more power, which he brandished by sending 27 balls screaming over the fences in 2012. A career-low 6.5 home run/fly ball (HR/FB) percentage, well below his career 13.0 percent rate, suggests he's in line for an uptick.
Since he hasn't brandished incredible power outside of 2012, fantasy players can't count on more than 20, and some of those will probably eat out of his steals tally. In this power-saturated game, anyone would prefer a 20/10 season to the reverse.
Busch Stadium doesn't offer a considerable upgrade over Turner Field, and his deep struggles hitting fellow lefties will present a problem wherever he plays. Don't go overboard anticipating him finally realizing his superstar ceiling, but Heyward is still young enough to improve, making him a No. 3 fantasy outfielder in 2015.
Shelby Miller, SP, Atlanta Braves
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The other side to the Heyward deal, Shelby Miller must also rebound from an underwhelming year that is worse than the surface numbers suggest.
His 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are passable, although not fantasy assets considering the onslaught of pitching studs infiltrating the game. His 4.54 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), on the other hand, is downright ugly. Only six qualified starters posted a lower mark.
In Miller's case, the discrepancy between ERA and FIP is easy to pinpoint. He notched a middling 6.25 strikeouts and 3.59 walks per nine innings, ratios that make him a fantasy afterthought.
For anyone counting on a massive defensive upgrade because of shortstop guru Andrelton Simmons, sorry. The Atlanta Braves provided exceptional fielding last season, ranking fifth in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and 11th in Defensive Runs Saved. Yet Miller can't complain about St. Louis' defense, which rated sixth and second, respectively, in UZR and DRS.
Barring some further shake-ups, the Braves will also get worse without Heyward patrolling the outfielder.
The only hope here is that he turned a corner and corrected whatever flaws plagued him. During the second half, he generated a 2.92 ERA, allowing only five earned runs throughout September. While he improved his control, issuing 19 walks in 74 frames, he still collected just 54 strikeouts and a 4.20 FIP.
Given the abundance of pitchers to pick from, Miller's value must fall into the basement to warrant a speculative pick in standard leagues.
Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays
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Russell Martin is a better real-life player than fantasy contributor. Fake gamers don't get credit for his pitch-framing and game-calling behind the plate, and five-by-five participants don't benefit from his excellent plate discipline.
For a while the Chicago Cubs sounded like the likely landing spot, a destination that would have kept his fantasy worth stagnant. The benefactor of a .336 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) well above career norms, the veteran's .290 average will revert closer to his career .259 clip.
Now that he joined forces with the Toronto Blue Jays, however, Martin remains interesting. In two seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he hit nine home runs at PNC Park compared to 17 on the road. Before that, he enjoyed Yankee Stadium to a tune of 18 long balls in 2011 and 21 during 2012.
Per ESPN.com's park factors, only Yankee Stadium and Coors Field conduced more homers than the Rogers Centre last season. Looking at an overlay of his old and new ballparks, the righty gets a significantly shorter left field to exploit.
Anyone searching for a high-average catcher has come to the wrong place, but Martin will compromise by upping his power in Toronto while also getting more scoring opportunities with a loaded offense. Treat him as a low-end starting catcher or a high-level No. 2.
Hanley Ramirez, SS, Boston Red Sox
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Arguably not even the biggest acquisition the Boston Red Sox made that week, Hanley Ramirez tops all free agents in terms of fantasy value. No longer the first-round mainstay from his heyday, he remains a top-three option at a bleak position.
Since shortstop belongs to Xander Bogaerts, a 22-year-old hotshot who could blossom into the next Ramirez, dynasty owners are fretting the signing. Ramirez will slide over to left field, removing him from baseball's scarcest position.
That's not a problem for re-drafters, as Ramirez carries over his shortstop eligibility into 2015. Other than Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Desmond, nobody else can match his prowess as a five-category threat.
But which guy will they get? After hitting .345/.402/.638 in 2013, his slash line sunk to.283/.369/.448, and he managed just 13 homers in 128 games. The 30-year-old has logged one full season over the last four years.
As someone prone to erratic play over the past few years, there's some fear that he'll grow into a complacent pattern with a cushy new deal guaranteed. Yet nobody can jump to that conclusion unless they share a personal relationship with the star.
He traded great lineups, teaming up with David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Yoenis Cespedes and Mike Napoli instead of Yasiel Puig, Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp. The Green Monster may shield a few balls from finding the bleachers, but it'll also give him a gigantic target to dart some doubles.
He's always a super risky option in the early rounds, but one with too much talent to ignore at short. With lesser alternatives, he remains the No. 3 fantasy shortstop behind Tulowitzki and Desmond.
Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Boston Red Sox
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Pablo Sandoval coalesced another giant October into a five-year, $95 million deal away from the San Francisco Giants. Even if relocating to Boston helps, drafters must beware overvaluing his name recognition and playoff success.
Even if there's anything to him hitting .344/.389/.545 in the postseason, fantasy gamers get nothing for it. Instead, they receive someone who has hit .280 over the past three regular seasons with 42 combined home runs with an average of 60 runs and 71 RBI per year.
That's fine, and his unheralded glovework increases his actual value. For fantasy, his capped power and nonexistent speed make him more of a corner infielder than a starting third baseman.
While he hits .312 at home compared to .277 on the road, he has tallied two more career dingers away from AT&T Park. Maybe he ups his power at Fenway Park, but only by a couple. The bigger hope lies in him expanding his counting numbers in a replenished Boston lineup.
In a new, bigger market, Sandoval is neither a top-10 fantasy third baseman nor a top-100 overall option.
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
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In November's biggest stunner, the Athletics jettisoned Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays. Oakland fans won't like the move, but fantasy stakeholders will watch the third baseman balloon up the rankings.
After a surprising breakout campaign in 2013, anyone anticipating regression left disappointed, as he hit 29 homers for an encore. His average dipped to .255 due to a 13.5 percent line-drive rate, but he proved the power is legit.
He did so playing half of his games in a pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum. Last season he smashed 18 homers on the road, notching a .513 slugging percentage away from Oakland. As a righty pull hitter, he profiles perfectly as 30-homer candidate inside the Rogers Centre.
He'll also call Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion teammates at the heart of Toronto's batting order, which will help him maintain his high counting numbers. Although the average is a legit concern, he won't hurt anyone by hitting in the .260s or better.
So what third baseman are you taking ahead of him? Evan Longoria touts a similar arsenal, but without the astounding ballpark or supporting cast. Anthony Rendon holds eligibility there, but he'll make a bigger dent at second.
Adrian Beltre remains the only comfortable answer, and he'll turn 36 during the season's opening week after registering 19 long balls this year. In his new locale, Donaldson merits consideration around the third or fourth round.
Brett Lawrie, 2B/3B, Oakland Athletics
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Fantasy owners can understand the Blue Jays losing their patience with Brett Lawrie, the buried portion of the surprising Donaldson trade.
Just think, two years ago this exchange would have netted an opposite response, as everyone would have called Toronto insane for losing a future superstar. That's how the public perceived Lawrie after hitting .293/.373/.580 during an eye-catching debut.
In three subsequent seasons, his average and on-base percentage have declined each year, falling to .247 and .301 during 2014. A barrage of injuries tarnished another season, limiting the third baseman to 70 games.
The 24-year-old has an interesting hypothesis for his early inability to stay healthy, blaming the Rogers Centre's artificial turf during a conference call, per ESPN.com:
"It treats my body kind of silly and throws it off. I just want to go out and be healthy, and I feel like this getting off the turf is a big step forward for me. Give me 550 at-bats. These are things I haven't had yet in the big leagues. Hopefully, getting off that turf will do my body wonders, and I really think that it will. I feel I will show my true talents.
"
This isn't the first time a story has centered around the surface. Although Melky Cabrera denied the rumors, ESPN's Buster Olney said the free agent is looking to sign elsewhere to escape the turf.
After three letdown years, many spurned drafters will likely swear off Lawrie, which would cement him as a prototypical post-hype sleeper. Despite a deflating line-drive rate and poor plate discipline, he has shown enough pop to belt 20 homers during a full season.
Stolen bases are the true wild card for his fantasy stock. Fantasy players can't like his lost zest for running. Not only did he he steal no bases in 2014, he never even tried. He doesn't astound enough in the batter's box to captivate fantasy owners without a handful of steals to his name.
While Beane sacrificed his best hitter for Lawrie, drafters need only throw a late feeler to close out the proceedings. If he finally taps into his massive upside, great. If not, admit defeat and move on.
Nelson Cruz, OF/DH, Seattle Mariners
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Last but not least—also not last since it’s early in December—the Seattle Mariners have reportedly made a big free-agent splash for the second straight year, this year signing reigning home run champion Nelson Cruz.
Even before announcing his destination, Cruz had bust written all over him. At 34 years old, he crushed a career-high 40 long balls after reaching 30 one previous time in 2009. Never pay for a career year is an important fantasy mantra to remember when chasing success that doesn’t jive with past production.
His regression began during the season, when he hit .249/.306/.463 with 12 homers after the All-Star break. There's a chance nobody will hit 40 homers in 2015, so Cruz can't be expected to replicate the feat.
Now that he's settled on Seattle, run. Just ask Robinson Cano about Safeco Field's stifling power. Cruz didn’t depend on Camden Yards, hitting 25 base-clearers on the road, but now he must combat a spacious park for 82 games.
That’s assuming he plays another full season, a bold forecast considering the 34-year-old has played more than 130 games in two of six full seasons since dismantling his “Quadruple-A” label.
If he needs 35-40 deep flies to live up to the draft selection, he’s going too high. Thirty represent a more realistic over-under line, and don’t forget a .270 average and single-digit steals. Leaving the Baltimore Orioles shoves him outside the overall top 50.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
