Young MLB Stars Deserving of Next Wave of Long-Term Extensions

Giancarlo Stanton and the Miami Marlins made sports history earlier this month when the two sides agreed to an unprecedented 13-year, $325 million contract extension through 2027.

While Miami’s decision to offer Stanton, the runner-up in the voting for the 2014 National League Most Valuable Player Award, a contract of that magnitude may seem obscene, it also represented the organization’s only opportunity to lock him up long term. After all, it’s not as though 80-grade power grows on trees these days.

In general, teams have been more willing to give multiyear extensions to young players in the last two seasons, and especially to guys who made an immediate impact after reaching the major leagues and are likely to become increasingly costly once eligible for arbitration.

That was the driving force behind the Angels’ decision to offer Mike Trout a six-year, $144.5 million contract extension last spring, as they essentially bought out his arbitration years while also securing subsequent years at a reasonable price.

However, Trout wasn’t the only promising young player to sign an extension last spring: The Pirates and Cardinals gave extensions to outfielder Starling Marte (six years, $31 million) and third baseman Matt Carpenter (six years, $52 million), respectively, while the Braves locked up the game’s best defensive shortstop in Andrelton Simmons (seven years, $58 million) before the 2014 season.

So which young MLB stars—players who are no more than 25 years of age and have less than two years of service time in the major leagues—are likely to receive long-term extensions this offseason?

Here’s a look at two intriguing candidates.

Christian Yelich, LF, Miami Marlins

Age: 22

Service Time: 1.069

First Time Arbitration-Eligible: 2017

The Marlins challenged Yelich with a promotion from Double-A to the major leagues in mid-2013, and the 22-year-old left fielder has done nothing but hit since his debut.

While primarily serving as the Marlins leadoff hitter, Yelich has put together an impressive .285/.365/.400 battling line in 933 plate appearances over the last two seasons, while also accruing 42 doubles, seven triples, 13 home runs and 31 stolen bases during that time frame.

More importantly, Yelich quickly has emerged as one of baseball’s better left fielders during his short time in the major leagues, ranking seventh in fWAR (5.7) and 12th in wRC+ (116) among players at the position with at least 700 plate appearances.

The Marlins would be wise to buy out Yelich’s arbitration years (beginning in 2017) and his first year or two of free agency to ensure he’s setting the table for Stanton for at least the next six seasons.

With a little more than a year of service time to his name (1.069 years), Yelich, who has the makings of a future batting champion and All-Star, is probably looking at an extension in the ballpark of five or six years and close to $20 million, though that figure stands to increase if the Marlins believe he’ll develop consistent 15-20 home run power during those years.

George Springer, OF, Houston Astros

Age: 25

Service Time: 0.166

First Time Arbitration-Eligible: 2017

George Springer made his highly anticipated debut with the Astros in 2014, but a nagging quad injury limited the toolsy outfielder to only 78 games. However, that was more than enough time for Springer to put himself on the map as one of baseball’s more talented and intriguing young players.

After struggling during his first few weeks in The Show, Springer eventually settled in at the plate to bat .231/.336/.468 with 20 home runs in 345 plate appearances. The 25-year-old did most of his damage in May—his first full month in the major leagues—batting .297 with 10 home runs in 117 plate appearances, and then added six more long balls in June.

In the wake of Giancarlo Stanton’s extension, B/R MLB Lead Writer Zachary D. Rymer identified other players who might be worth a $300 million contract. One of those players is Springer, who, as Rymer pointed out, put up nearly the same numbers in 2014 (.231 AVG, .804 OPS, 20 HR and 1.4 fWAR) as Stanton did as a rookie back in 2010 (.259 AVG, .833 OPS, 22 HR and 2.3 fWAR).

However, Rymer goes on to note a few differences between the two sluggers:

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One complication, however, is that Springer is actually slightly older than Stanton by just under a month (they're both 25). So while his rookie season was comparable to Stanton's, it might represent Springer's ceiling rather than his floor.

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Though Springer doesn’t deserve anything close to Stanton money, his loud tools (especially his power and speed) and lofty ceiling already have him pegged as a future extension candidate. Unfortunately, Springer already declined an extension offer from the Astros before reaching the major leagues—a contract similar to the one signed by first baseman Jon Singleton—suggesting that he believes he’ll ultimately command a larger contract in several years.

Springer will be arbitration-eligible for the first time in 2017, meaning he won’t become a free agent until after the 2020 season. But if the Astros were to approach Springer about a monster extension, something could get done after his first year of arbitration in 2017.