Week 12 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Every bettor has a certain type of game he or she deems more favorable for placing wagers. Some like the huge, double-digit spreads, some like the narrowest margins they can find and others will take on anything in front of them. Whichever of those categories you fall into, Week 12 has something for everyone.

So, which type of game are we going to focus on here? That would be those tough calls that have only been given a minimal point spread. Why? Because there's no better feeling than taking down Vegas oddsmakers by trumping their toughest spreads.

Of course, before we get to some in-depth analysis on a couple matchups that are difficult to call, let's first overview the entire Week 12 slate of games, along with the corresponding odds and a pick against the spread for each.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Kansas City at Oakland	KC -7	Chiefs	The Chiefs are great at keeping opponents off the scoreboard, and the Raiders struggle to get on it.
Cleveland at Atlanta	ATL -3	Falcons	Atlanta is fired up after taking the division lead, and the Browns are slumping.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	PHI -11	Titans	Mark Sanchez isn't good enough to rack up a double-digit win against Tennessee.
Detroit at New England	NE -7.5	Patriots	The Patriots are just too good, plain and simple.
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -1	Bengals	See analysis below.
Green Bay at Minnesota	GB -9.5	Packers	Minnesota won't keep Aaron Rodgers from throwing any less than three touchdown passes.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	CHI -5.5	Buccaneers	Jay Cutler's interceptions allow the Buccaneers to remain in this game.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	IND -14	Colts	The Colts will take the field with chips on their shoulders. It's not a good day to be a Jaguar.
NY Jets at Buffalo	BUF -4.5	Bills	Kyle Orton will torch a bad Jets secondary for the second time this season.
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -7	Cardinals	The Seahawks get the win, but a good Cardinals defense keeps them within the spread.
St. Louis at San Diego	SD -4.5	Rams	There's something good going on in St. Louis right now, and the Rams notch another win as a result.
Washington at San Francisco	SF -9	49ers	Things are pretty bad in Washington right now, and the 49ers will take advantage.
Miami at Denver	DEN -7	Broncos	Miami won't go quietly here, but expect a big day from an angry Peyton Manning.
Dallas at NY Giants	DAL -3	Cowboys	Dallas has a very well-rounded offense, and the Giants have a quarterback who threw five picks last week.
Baltimore at New Orleans	NO -3	Saints	See analysis below.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 19.

Breaking Down Toughest Week 12 Calls

Cincinnati Bengals (+1) at Houston Texans

Bill Haber/Associated Press

Both of these teams are coming off of very impressive Week 11 showings. The Bengals torched the New Orleans Saints in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome—no easy feat—and the Texans rode Ryan Mallett's first career start to a huge win over the Cleveland Browns.

The Bengals have been a tough road team to predict this season, earning two big wins against the Baltimore Ravens and Saints, but getting trounced by both the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots as well. Although, there's plenty of reason to believe this team will improve its away record to 3-2 after Sunday.

Quarterback Andy Dalton was absolutely on fire against the Saints, completing 16 of his 22 passing attempts for 220 yards and three touchdowns for a 143.9 passer rating. Meanwhile, Jeremy Hill continued his onslaught on the ground, gaining 152 yards on 27 rushes.

Adding to Cincinnati's offensive proficiency is the expected return of Giovani Bernard as well this week. According to ESPN's Coley Harvey, he's back at practice once again:

The Bengals boast an extremely balanced offense right now, and they are about to face a Texans defense ranked 31st against the pass and 16th against the run. Houston has also given up more than 30 points in a game four times this season.

With so many offensive weapons, including All-Pro wide receiver A.J. Green, in Cincinnati, Houston will have a difficult time controlling this game. Should the Texans fall behind, it will be very difficult to catch up due to Mallett's inexperience in that particular situation.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Texans 20

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Here's a great example of a contest between two teams playing catch-up in their respective divisions. Baltimore sits behind both the Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, while New Orleans is a tiebreaker away from overtaking the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South.

Everyone knows the Saints are one of the NFL's best home teams. Or, at least we thought we knew that before they dropped two consecutive contests in New Orleans over the past two weeks. Despite that fact, there's good reason to believe that skid will end Monday night.

The Saints offense didn't exactly struggle between the 20-yard lines against the Bengals. In fact, New Orleans converted eight of its 13 third-down attempts, resulting in long, sustained drives and more time for Drew Brees and Co. on the field. Penalties and a late-game lost fumble helped doom the Saints, keeping them off the scoreboard.

The quarterback also has extra motivation heading into Week 12, via Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun:

That hasn't been a common trend with this team, as 10 points were its lowest total of the season. Keep in mind, this is the same team that put up 44 points on Green Bay in Week 8. Baltimore's 21st-ranked pass defense will be the reason New Orleans gets back on track in Week 12.

Before taking on rookie Zach Mettenberger in Week 10, the Ravens allowed Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to rack up 340 passing yards and six touchdowns in Pittsburgh. There's been a huge drop-off in production on the road this season for the Ravens, and Brees will be taking advantage of that fact this week.

If the Saints can get some points on the board early, it will help neutralize running back Justin Forsett, putting the ball in the hands of Joe Flacco more often. That's generally a problem for the Ravens, as the veteran quarterback has struggled when playing from behind (see: games against Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh).

Prediction: Saints 31, Ravens 24