Free MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics: July 30th 2009

The Oakland Athletics will look to take their third straight game from the Boston Red Sox when the two AL ballclubs square off at Fenway Park this afternoon at 1:30 PM ET. Click here to bet on MLB baseball at BetUS online sportsbook

Oakland scored five runs in the first inning and went on to beat the Red Sox 8-6 on Wednesday, cashing in for BetUS MLB sports betting members as +160 underdogs while the game’s 14 combined runs played over the posted over/under total (9).

Rajai Davis hit a bases-loaded double to drive in three runs for the A’s while Mike Lowell smacked a three-run homer and finished with four RBIs for the Red Sox.

Tonight, the Athletics will hand the ball to left-hander Gio Gonzalez (2-2, 7.87 ERA) while the Red Sox counter with gifted left-hander Jon Lester (9-7, 3.79 ERA).

The Scoop: The Boston Red Sox are ranked 13th in hitting, with a team batting average of .263 while averaging 5.1 runs per game this season. The Red Sox are ranked 7th in pitching, with a team earned run average of 4.03.

The Oakland Athletics are ranked 26th in hitting, with a team batting average of .252 while averaging 4.4 runs per game this season. The A’s are ranked 22nd in pitching, with a team earned run average of 4.43.

Gio Gonzalez has gone 2-0 over his last three starts with a 8.22 ERA but limited the New York Yankees to one run on two hits in 6.2 innings of a 6-4 win on Saturday.

Jon Lester has gone 2-1 over his last three starts with a 2.01 ERA and gave up just two earned runs on eight hits while striking out nine in 7.1 innings of a 7-2 win over Baltimore on Saturday.

Analysis: I’ll keep this pick direct and right to the point by simply saying that I don’t believe the Oakland A’s have what it takes to knock off the Red Sox and Jon Lester in this contest tonight, despite recording two straight wins over the talented AL East ballclub.

The Red Sox generally handle their business at home against lesser teams and have gone a blistering 39-12 in their last 51 home games against a team with a losing record.

Boston has also gone a spotless 11-0 in Jon Lester’s last 11 starts as a home favorite of -201 or greater, an equally impressive 4-0 in Lester’s last 4 starts during Game 4 of a series and a scorching 22-4 in Lester’s last 26 home starts.

While the Athletics have gone an impressive 4-1 in their last five games against a left-handed starter, Oakland hasn’t generally followed up a victory in fine fashion, going just 1-5 in their last six games following a victory.

I like the Boston Red Sox and Jon Lester to get a much-needed win while playing just under the set O/U total.

MLB Free Picks: Boston Red Sox -1½ Runs/Under 9 Total Runs