NFL Predictions Week 12: Upset Picks and Projections

Upsets are the backbone for a quality week of NFL picks, not to mention the foundation for a winning year.

Sometimes the upsets are easy to see coming. Sometimes not. The shaky Seattle Seahawks going to Arrowhead Stadium and taking a dive was not all that crazy to fathom. Neither was Cincinnati winning in New Orleans.

Denver losing to St. Louis shows that the crazy can happen any week, though. 

Week 12 has a wealth of games that could swing either way, which is the beauty of this point in the season when contenders tune up and spoilers look to spoil. Bettors who can navigate the choppy waters will get to shore with some fresh coin in hand.

NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Kansas City at Oakland	KC -7.5	Chiefs	The Chiefs will have few issues running wild on a putrid Raiders defense.
Cleveland at Atlanta	ATL -3	Falcons	The Falcons are tough at home, and the Browns secondary will have no answers for Julio Jones.
Tennessee at Philadelphia	PHI -10.5	Titans	The Titans are better than advertised and can pressure Mark Sanchez consistently.
Detroit at New England	NE -7.5	Lions	Tom Brady and Co. are on fire, but not enough to cover a big spread against an elite secondary.
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -1	Bengals	Cincinnati is on the upswing at the right time as the offense continues to get healthy.
Green Bay at Minnesota	GB -10	Packers	Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable at this juncture, a trend that will continue against Minnesota's defense.
Tampa Bay at Chicago	CHI -6	Buccaneers	See analysis below.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	IND -14	Jaguars	Denard Robinson can help keep the ball out of Andrew Luck's hands to the point this large spread is just too much.
NY Jets at Buffalo	BUF -4.5	Jets	Michael Vick in the face of a great rush on the road is bad news.
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -7	Cardinals	Drew Stanton looks like Carson Palmer, while the Seahawks look nothing like defending champs.
St. Louis at San Diego	SD -6	Chargers	Philip Rivers can overcome a shaky defense at home when asked.
Washington at San Francisco	SF -9	49ers	San Francisco is back to form while Washington implodes. Easy.
Miami at Denver	DEN -7.5	Dolphins	Miami quietly has one of the best secondaries in the NFL, while Peyton Manning has struggled over the course of the last few weeks.
Dallas at NY Giants	DAL -3.5	Cowboys	DeMarco Murray is going to run wild on a shaky New York Giants defense.
Baltimore at New Orleans	NO -3.5	Ravens	See analysis below.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 7 a.m. ET on Nov. 19.

Top Week 12 Upset Picks 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-6)

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Chicago is not fooling anybody. 

The Bears got a 21-13 win over 4-6 Minnesota last week but needed a late interception of rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to get there. Before that the Bears had lost three games in a row, two of which saw the miserable defense allow more than 50 points.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers snapped a five-game losing streak with a 27-7 win over 3-7 Washington. There, veteran quarterback Josh McCown put on his second consecutive strong performance since being named the starter, throwing for 288 yards and a pair of scores.

Bleacher Report's Sean Jensen paints Sunday's picture quite well:

Despite being at home, Chicago is not at that much of an advantage, if at all. Brandon Marshall said as much after his team's win, per Dan Durkin of CBSChicago.com:

"

It was a little rough. Still had a slow start, still wasn’t good enough, but we got the win and we’re going to enjoy it. I guess we’re done enjoying it, we got back to work today and watched film and we were really held each other accountable and focused on how we can continue to get better and build off of it.

"

Even against a defense as bad as Tampa Bay's, the Bears are going to find it difficult to win in the elements at home if quarterback Jay Cutler turns the ball over consistently. He has over the course of his past four outings, throwing six of his 12 interceptions on the year.

The Buccaneers do a lot wrong on the defensive side of the ball, but pressuring quarterbacks is not one of their weaknesses. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Tampa Bay has forced 22 sacks, 34 quarterback hits and 103 hurries this season.

Under duress most of the day, expect Cutler to make a few more critical errors. A motivated Lovie Smith will turn those into a close victory against his old team.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Bears 24

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Winning in New Orleans is nowhere near as difficult as it used to be.

In fact, the feat looks like it is becoming a regular thing. The New Orleans Saints lost a tough overtime bout with the San Francisco 49ers in Week 10, then turned around and laid a gigantic egg against the Cincinnati Bengals, losing 27-10.

Now Drew Brees and Co. have to deal with a 6-4 Baltimore Ravens team coming off a bye week. Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun put it best:

Not only has Saints No. 1 corner Keenan Lewis been dealing with a nagging issue for weeks, starting safety Rafael Bush just hit injured reserve. In that loss to the Bengals, the gimpy secondary allowed Andy Dalton to throw for 220 yards and three touchdowns.

The shaky secondary will be no problem for Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco, who has completed 62.4 percent of his passes this season for 2,521 yards and 17 scores to eight interceptions. It certainly helps, though, that he will once again be flanked by a top-10 rushing attack led by Justin Forsett (721 yards, five touchdowns on a 5.4 per-carry average).

In short, the Ravens can quietly put up points with the best offenses in the league and are flanked by a top-five rush defense. Coming off a bye, Baltimore will be able to pour on enough points to pull away in the final quarter on Monday Night Football—especially if the Dome is as quiet as it was last week.

Prediction: Ravens 28, Saints 20

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Pittsburgh and Carolina on bye.