NFL Predictions Week 11: Analyzing Sunday's Biggest Potential Upsets

Death, taxes and something ridiculous happening in the NFL are among the few constants in this world.

Each and every week, fans can count on one or two upsets littering the Sunday slate of games. The gulf between the haves and have-nots isn't all that great, which means it doesn't take much for a team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Week 11 won't be any different.

The three games below all seem the most likely to provide surprises later today.

Time (ET)	Away	Home	Spread	Pick
Sunday
1 p.m.	Minnesota Vikings	Chicago Bears	CHI -4.5	CHI
1 p.m.	Houston Texans	Cleveland Browns	CLE -3	CLE
1 p.m.	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	CAR -2.5	CAR
1 p.m.	Cincinnati Bengals	New Orleans Saints	NO -5.5	See Below
1 p.m.	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	WAS -6	WAS
1 p.m.	Denver Broncos	St. Louis Rams	DEN -8	DEN
1 p.m.	San Francisco 49ers	New York Giants	SF -3	NYG
1 p.m.	Seattle Seahawks	Kansas City Chiefs	SEA -1	SEA
4:05 p.m.	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	SD -8	See Below
4:25 p.m.	Detroit Lions	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -3	See Below
4:25 p.m.	Philadelphia Eagles	Green Bay Packers	GB -4.5	GB
8:30 p.m.	New England Patriots	Indianapolis Colts	IND -2	NE
Monday
8:30 p.m.	Pittsburgh Steelers	Tennessee Titans	PIT -4	PIT

Arizona Cardinals (-3) vs. Detroit Lions

The Arizona Cardinals' hopes of being one of the best teams in the NFL went down with Carson Palmer. The Cardinals won't suffer a huge drop without Palmer, but when they match up against other really good teams, they're going to be in trouble.

Lingering effects from Palmer's absence are exacerbated by the fact that the Detroit Lions own the best defense in football. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a mere 6.6 yards an attempt on the Lions, and the longest pass against the Detroit secondary this season went for 46 yards.

This is the lion's den—pun intended—that Drew Stanton must enter.

To his credit, Stanton's recognizing this chance for what it is. Countless backup quarterbacks have capitalized on the starter going down, parlaying one game into two games, two games into three games, etc.

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

During a teleconference on Wednesday, the 30-year-old spoke about making the most of this situation, per Rod Beard of The Detroit News:

"

It's a tremendous opportunity. I've never been given this kind of a chance to play this many games. I'm focused on this week and I know how precious every single snap is. I had that opportunity earlier in the year and had that concussion that set me back a little bit. You can't look ahead, especially with circumstances like that. You're focused on that week at hand and focused on this day. That's how I've gotten to where I am.

"

Stanton's looked good during his limited time on the field, but he's completed less than 50 percent of his passes, which would rank last among qualified QBs. He's also averaging 6.6 yards an attempt, which puts him just ahead of Geno Smith and Derek Carr.

The combination of Andre Ellington and the Cardinals defense should keep Arizona in this one. Sooner or later, though, Stanton will make a costly mistake or two.

Prediction: Detroit 20, Arizona 14

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Call me crazy, but the Cincinnati Bengals are due. Cincy—Andy Dalton in particular—had a spectacularly awful night in a 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 10. But the Bengals are one of the most unpredictable teams in the league, and they're led by the most consistently inconsistent quarterback.

Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson highlighted how volatile Dalton's week-by-week numbers can be:

In short, the Bengals are one of those teams that lets common sense fly out the window. Just when you think you have all of the answers, Cincinnati changes the question.

In terms of actual reasoning behind a Week 11 upset bid, one can start with the New Orleans Saints defense, which is 26th in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. The Saints have particularly struggled against the run, which is good news for the Bengals with Giovani Bernard out. Jeremy Hill's proven himself to be a capable back when given enough carries.

New Orleans is also tied at 21st for team interceptions. That should help Dalton, who's thrown six interceptions in his last three games.

Then again, don't be surprised if the Bengals lose 56-0 and Dalton somehow breaks the time-space continuum and ends up floating in a fifth dimension behind a bookcase, trying to warn a younger Andy Dalton never to become a quarterback.

Prediction: Cincinnati 30, New Orleans 27

Long Shot: San Diego Chargers (-8) vs. Oakland Raiders

Basically, the Oakland Raiders have to win sometime, right? The Detroit Lions might have gone 0-16 in 2008, but it's otherwise extremely difficult to lose every regular-season game in the NFL. And who better to hand the Raiders their first victory than the San Diego Chargers, losers of three in a row?

When these teams played in Oakland back in Week 6, the Chargers walked away with a 31-28 win, courtesy of a one-yard touchdown run by Branden Oliver with a little under two minutes to play. Carr went 18-of-34 for 282 yards, four touchdowns and an interception.

Carr's struggled over the last two weeks, but the Chargers defense has had trouble against the pass this year. Football Outsiders ranks San Diego 29th in pass defense defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).

The Chargers also placed Jason Verrett on injured reserve, per Michael Gehlken of the The San Diego Union-Tribune:

Plus, Carr knows that the Raiders are undefeated in the categories that really count, per Vic Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle:

Basically, this game is one of best remaining chances Oakland has to pick up win No. 1:

Desperation can be a strong motivator, and no team will want to win more in Week 11 than the Raiders. The Chargers may be the better team, but chalk this one up to one of those gut feelings. Oakland will get its first win.

Prediction: Oakland 24, San Diego 20

Note: Spreads are courtesy of OddsShark.com.