Week 11 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Bettors get just 14 shots in Week 11 to make notable headway in the financial department on NFL offerings from Las Vegas.

Of course, some shots are not worth taking. Others are so easy, an explanation is not necessary (Hi, Denver over St. Louis by whatever number oddsmakers want to dream up).

The secret is to take those matchups that look difficult at face value and wring them until every last drop is out, revealing a rather favorable situation that allows a bettor to take the house head-on—and win.

With that in mind, the full Week 11 offerings are as follows, with some additional tips after the jump.

NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13)	MIA -6	MIA	Kyle Orton will not have enough on a short week to overcome one of the league's best pass defenses.
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -3.5	MIN	See analysis below.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE	Cleveland is legit and at home while Houston experiments under center. Easy.
Seattle at Kansas City	EVEN	SEA	Seattle seems to be hitting its stride and will outmuscle Kansas City on the ground.
Atlanta at Carolina	CAR -2.5	CAR	Cam Newton can do enough on his own to move past one of the worst defenses in the league.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -5.5	NO	See analysis below.
Tampa Bay at Washington	WAS -7	WAS	The return of Robert Griffin III has Washington in a position to at least beat up on bad teams.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -10	DEN	Denver continues to breeze through the schedule, while St. Louis has seemingly lost its will to compete.
San Francisco at NY Giants	SF -4.5	SF	New York will have no answer for the San Francisco ground game, so long as the staff actually uses it.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -10.5	OAK	Derek Carr and Oakland have fight but not enough talent.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -4.5	GB	Philadelphia still has a solid offense, but a duel between Aaron Rodgers and Mark Sanchez is not going to end well.
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -3	DET	A bout between two defensive contenders defaults to quarterbacks, which in this case defaults to Detroit.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -3	NE	A bet against Tom Brady and New England right now is akin to throwing money in a fire.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	PIT -6	PIT	Pittsburgh has re-entered orbit but has not fallen enough to get caught napping by Tennessee.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 12.

Breaking Down Tough Week 11 Calls

Minnesota at Chicago (-3.5)

This is how bettors have fun, folks. 

Break down the lowest of the low matchups and come to a conclusion that hopefully nets some decent coin that aligns with time invested.

Take the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, for example. The latter is especially in a dark place at the moment one week removed from a brutal 55-14 loss to Green Bay in which the 28th-ranked pass defense allowed Aaron Rogers to toss six touchdowns in one half of play.

The Bears have quickly dropped from preseason NFC North contender to potential top-10 selection in the 2015 NFL draft, although Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is not buying what most are selling, as captured by ESPN's Ed Werder:

Zimmer should know now that his team has had an extra week of preparation for the contest thanks to a bye. His Vikings are quietly one of the hotter teams in the league at the moment thanks to a two-game winning streak and a pass defense that ranks fourth in the league.

Offense continues to elude the Vikings, though, as rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater continues to go through a relatively steep learning curve. Over the course of the win streak, he has shown an improvement with two touchdowns to no interceptions.

Bridgewater should embrace the Chicago defense with open arms. The unit is a mess, and the strong defense that backs him will keep a reeling, seemingly dysfunctional Chicago offense at bay.

This is not some sexy upset that will make major headlines or anything of the sort, but Las Vegas and the rest of the globe seem to be dozing a little too heavily on the improving Vikings.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Bears 20

Cincinnati at New Orleans (-5.5)

Bill Haber/Associated Press

Thank the Cincinnati Bengals directly for this tough call.

It is hard to know which Bengals team will show up on a week-to-week basis at this point. The team struggles in prime time, yes. A 43-17 loss to New England in Week 5 and a 24-3 loss last Thursday to Cleveland can attest to that.

The loss to the Browns was a sight to behold, though. Quarterback Andy Dalton threw for 86 yards and three interceptions on a 10-of-33 effort. As NFL Network's Albert Breer points out, the team will also be without star running back Giovani Bernard once again:

To be fair, though, the Saints are partially to blame for this tough call, as well.

Drew Brees and the Saints are normally a sure thing at home but just last week dropped a contest to San Francisco in overtime. The good news, though, is that the team's other four losses have come on the road.

To be honest, even better news is that it is Cincinnati that comes to town this weekend. Not only are the Bengals a volatile mess on the verge of a potential collapse, the team has been blown away two out of its three times on the road (43-17 and 27-0 defeats) and ranks 31st against the run.

Bettors know about Brees and his top-three passing attack. They may not know that the Saints rank sixth in the league in terms of rushing mostly thanks to the efforts of back Mark Ingram, who has rattled off 100 or more yards in each of his last three games with three total touchdowns.

The deeper bettors dive, the more this line actually seems a bit off. Or drastically. Regardless, the Saints are a safe bet to roll in this one, be it through the air, on the ground or some unfair combination of both.

Prediction: Saints 28, Bengals 17

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Dallas, New York Jets, Jacksonville and Baltimore on bye.