NFL Week 11 Predictions: Projections for the Early Lines, Spreads and Odds

The book is just being closed on Week 10—in fact, it's still very much open for the Philadelphia Eagles and the Carolina Panthers, who play on Monday Night Football. But that won't stop pigskin aficionados from going ahead and taking a look forward to Week 11.

A handful of the matchups on tap are must-watch affairs, and some of those marquee games prove tough to wager on. But in the midst of the treacherous waters that are NFL betting lines, hope shines through in the form of a few lines worth jumping at.

Betting lines tend to look noticeably different on Friday than on Monday, so getting your bets in early in the week can be the difference between taking a trendy underdog and betting on an even spread.

With that in mind, let's go ahead and break down Week 11.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Buffalo at Miami (Thurs., Nov. 13)	MIA -4	BUF	The Bills are accustomed to down-to-the-wire finishes, but Miami has the superior offense to win a close one.
Minnesota at Chicago	CHI -4.5	MIN	Chicago is spiraling downward, while Minnesota is rested and full of confidence.
Houston at Cleveland	CLE -3	CLE	Brian Hoyer will take advantage of a hapless Houston secondary, and the defense will do the rest.
Seattle at Kansas City	SEA -1	SEA	KC's defense is the real deal, but Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson are, too.
Atlanta at Carolina	CAR -2.5	CAR	Atlanta's defense is the perfect prescription for Cam Newton's offensive lethargy.
Cincinnati at New Orleans	NO -5.5	CIN	See below.
Tampa Bay at Washington	WSH -6	WSH	See below.
Denver at St. Louis	DEN -8	DEN	The Rams' Achilles' heel on defense is the long ball, and they're playing Peyton Manning.
San Francisco at New York Giants	SF -3	SF	New York can't hang with a playmaking defense for four quarters.
Oakland at San Diego	SD -8	SD	This one was close the last time they played, but the Chargers have a chip on their shoulder after three straight losses.
Philadelphia at Green Bay	GB -4.5	GB	Aaron Rodgers is playing lights-out football, and for all of their success, the Eagles still have a woeful secondary.
Detroit at Arizona	ARI -3	ARI	The Cardinals defense is peaking at the right time—right before facing a stout Detroit offense.
New England at Indianapolis	IND -2	NE	New England's secondary will make things tough for the league's top passer, and the Colts defense will have another letdown.
Pittsburgh at Tennessee (Mon., Nov. 17)	N/A	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger gets it done in prime time, and the Titans defense is far from formidable.

Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated Nov. 9 at 11 p.m. ET

Early Lines to Bet On

Washington Redskins (-6) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The games with huge playoff implications on Week 11 are plentiful, but some of the best money to be made lies in a matchup between two teams under .500. 

The Washington Redskins play host to the woeful Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, and Tampa Bay is just the opponent Robert Griffin III and Washington's offense need to get things clicking before the closing stretch of the season.

RG3 has lost the two games he's both started and finished this season, turning in shaky performances against the Houston Texans and the Minnesota Vikings. But Tampa Bay has been a remedy for struggling quarterbacks this season, with the Bucs averaging 285.3 yards against per game—second-worst in the NFL.

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

On top of that, Tampa Bay has been almost just as bad offensively—ranking 26th through the air and 29th on the ground. Its offense will go up against a Washington defense ranking in the top half of the league in both categories.

The Redskins come in off a bye and will be both rested and confident after winning two of three entering the bye. Meanwhile, the Bucs have now lost five straight and are lacking in confidence.

Prediction: Redskins 34, Bucs 20

Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) over New Orleans Saints

The Saints have been a lock to win in the Superdome in recent seasons, but that trend took a turn for the worse in Week 10 with a loss at home to the San Francisco 49ers in overtime.

Things don't get much easier in Week 11 for New Orleans. It stays at home but welcomes an angry Cincinnati Bengals team looking to make up for last Thursday's home drubbing at the hands of the Cleveland Browns.

The Cincinnati defense has been a shell of its 2013 self, ranking in the bottom half of the league on the ground and through the air. But its biggest weakness is against the run, and most of the Saints' offensive success comes via the pass.

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Andy Dalton's chances of turning things around will be high against a 27th-ranked Saints secondary, and A.J. Green and Mohamed Sanu will make plays in the deep passing game.

It's hard to count against the Saints at home, but a far-too-lopsided spread and Drew Brees' recent late-game gaffes make this a rather easy prediction to take Cincinnati on the spread.

Prediction: Saints 31, Bengals 30

Stats courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.