NFL Predictions Week 10: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

Another Sunday has come around, and with it another chance to win big money on some football games. Through 10 weeks this season, we've seen our fair share of unexpected results, and that trend continued on Thursday night when the Cleveland Browns snapped a 17-game losing streak on the road to division opponents by beating a Cincinnati Bengals team that hadn't lost a regular-season home game since 2012.

Hopefully, the games on Sunday go more according to plan.

Vegas oddsmakers have already adjusted their lines, and we're now hours away from kickoff, so it's time to take a look at some last-minute picks against the spread, followed by some advice for the day's impending matchups.

Matchup	Odds	Pick ATS	Reason
Chiefs at Bills	Even	Chiefs	Bills offense is too banged up to handle this Chiefs defense.
Falcons at Buccaneers	ATL -2.5	Falcons	Buccaneers have little pass rush, so expect a big day for Matt Ryan.
Titans at Ravens	BAL -10.5	Titans	Baltimore hasn't looked impressive enough on offense to cover a double-digit spread.
Steelers at Jets	PIT -3.5	Steelers	Ben Roethlisberger keeps rolling against a weak Jets secondary.
49ers at Saints	NO -5.5	Saints	Drew Brees is red hot, and the 49ers offense isn't.
Cowboys at Jaguars*	DAL -7.5	Jaguars	See analysis below.
Dolphins at Lions	DET -2.5	Lions	Calvin Johnson is the difference-maker in a defensive battle.
Broncos at Raiders	DEN -11.5	Raiders	Oakland hasn't lost by more than 11 points since Week 4.
Rams at Cardinals	AZ -7	Cardinals	See analysis below.
Giants at Seahawks	SEA -10	Giants	Seattle doesn't have the offensive firepower to win by 10.
Bears at Packers	GB -7.5	Packers	Jay Cutler is too turnover prone to keep up with Aaron Rodgers.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 8.

Pick Analysis

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)

The Jaguars are deserving of a little more credit in the eyes of bettors. While the team only holds a 1-8 record this season, it has kept pace with opponents in recent weeks. In fact, over the last five contests, Jacksonville has lost by more than one score just twice, and that was against surging Bengals and Miami Dolphins offenses.

Coming into this week, it's difficult to pinpoint the Cowboys offense as one that is surging due to the recent back injury suffered by quarterback Tony Romo. The signal-caller had surgery to repair his back during the offseason, and he took a big hit in the area against the Washington Redskins in Week 8, which forced him to miss the following game.

That has led to a two-game losing streak for the Cowboys.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Romo is probable for his Week 10 contest in London:

However, it's difficult to say that the quarterback is 100 percent. Former NFL physician David J. Chao tweeted what he expects to be different in the Cowboys offense on Sunday:

That may not be the best game plan for the team's top-ranked rushing offense. If running back DeMarco Murray is forced to run out of the shotgun formation, it will give Jacksonville linebackers more time to react to the ball-carrier, limiting his effectiveness. If that's the case, we should expect this game to remain close through a full 60 minutes.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

This game will rest on the arm of Rams quarterback Austin Davis. Considering St. Louis holds the league's 25th-ranked passing offense, that's not a good omen.

The Cardinals are one of the best teams in the NFL against the run. In fact, they rank third, allowing an average of 79.6 yards per game on the ground. Recently, the Rams transitioned to rookie Tre Mason out of the backfield, but he only mustered 3.4 yards per carry in Week 9 against the San Francisco 49ers.

Expect Arizona to clamp down on the St. Louis running game with a similar effectiveness, forcing the Rams to throw the ball to get anything accomplished on offense. Unfortunately, the team's signal-caller has been producing lackluster numbers of late, throwing for no more than 160 yards in each of his last three games.

According to Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com, Arizona plans on making things rather difficult for the opposing quarterback:

The Cardinals may have the league's worst-ranked pass defense, but considering Davis' slump and Arizona's ability to focus on the pass after stalling the running game, it won't be easy for the Rams to get themselves into position to score.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals boast one of the league's most well-rounded offenses, featuring quarterback Carson Palmer, wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown and running back Andre Ellington. Palmer has been so good that he was rewarded with a contract extension on Friday, via NFL on ESPN:

That's a lot of weapons for a Rams defense that ranks 17th in yards allowed and 27th in points allowed to contain.

There's every reason to think the Cardinals will handle the Rams with ease in the desert on Sunday.