
NHL Power Rankings: B/R Experts' Week 4 Poll
It's hard to believe we're already four weeks into the NHL season.
It's the time of year where we're starting to see the big swings in the rankings die down somewhat, though there are still some significant changes in this week's edition of the power rankings. One team to watch in that regard is the Los Angeles Kings, who entered the week in the No. 1 position fresh off six consecutive wins but promptly dropped four decisions against Eastern Conference teams.
How far will the Kings drop, and who will replace them at the top of this week's list? The answer is determined by voting from our panel of experts: Adrian Dater, Dave Lozo, Steve Macfarlane, Allan Mitchell, Lyle Richardson, Carol Schram and myself. All of the rankings here are based both on what's happened so far and what we expect to happen in the future and will not mirror the NHL standings exactly.
Read on to see where every NHL team ranks this week.
Most news and statistics are courtesy of NHL.com and are current through the start of action on November 3. Advanced statistics via war-on-ice.com.
30-26: Buffalo Sabres-Columbus Blue Jackets
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30. Buffalo Sabres (Last week: 29). Buffalo has exactly one non-shootout win on the season, a 2-1 victory over the San Jose Sharks in which the Sabres were outshot 30-15. The club that parity forgot has a 34.6 percent Fenwick rating in five-on-five situations, which is barely even theoretically possible.
29. Carolina Hurricanes (Last week: 30). Carolina did something surprising last week, winning two consecutive games over visiting Western Conference clubs (Arizona and Los Angeles). That's not enough to erase the eight straight losses the team posted to start the year, but it does bump the 'Canes ahead of Buffalo.
28. Arizona Coyotes (Last week: 23). After being outscored 12-4 in three consecutive losses, the Coyotes managed to end their week on a positive note with a 6-5 decision over the Capitals. However, the club's inability to handle teams like Florida and Carolina impressed nobody.
27. Colorado Avalanche (Last week: 27). The Avs have a single win in their last five games but have managed to force overtime or the shootout three times in that stretch. It's not the same as winning, but it beats losing in regulation.
26. Columbus Blue Jackets (Last week: 18). The Jackets plummet eight spots in this week's voting, which is the sort of thing that happens when a two-game losing streak turns into five consecutive losses. It's one thing to lose on the road to Anaheim and Los Angeles; it's a very different thing to lose at home to Ottawa and Toronto.
25-21: Philadelphia Flyers-Florida Panthers
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25. Philadelphia Flyers (Last week: 22). Losses to the Lightning and Panthers killed the momentum the Flyers had generated with a run of three wins. Steve Mason played better in his most recent start but lost the game anyway and is in danger of losing the No. 1 job to Ray Emery, who had started four in a row.
24. Edmonton Oilers (Last week: 24). Edmonton's four-game winning streak came to an end on Wednesday against Nashville, and the team followed that up by dropping a close decision to the Vancouver Canucks. Taylor Hall's injury could cripple the team as it sets out on a five-game road trip.
23. Winnipeg Jets (Last week: 28). The Jets have now won four of their last five games, with the lone loss coming in the shootout (and all five games being decided by just a single goal). If they could get the power play (clicking at just 7.7 percent) going, this team might be dangerous.
22. New York Rangers (Last week: 21). New York falls one spot after a week in which the team went 1-1. Weirdly, after scoring five goals in the third period against Minnesota in their first game of the week, the Rangers were shut out by Winnipeg in their second.
21. Florida Panthers (Last week: 25). Florida keeps finding ways to collect points. The team has picked up at least a single point in seven of its nine games and last week added a pair of 2-1 wins to its record to advance four spots on this list.
20-16: Ottawa Senators-Dallas Stars
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20. Ottawa Senators (Last week: 20). A hot start is slowly starting to slide from memory. The Senators have had some tough opponents of late, but that doesn't change the fact that the team has just a single win in its past five games (a 5-2 victory over the struggling Blue Jackets). Still, last week saw the team go 1-1-1 and basically tread water.
19. Washington Capitals (Last week: 11). Washington has lost four straight games, surrendering 18 goals over that span. The reconstructed defence deserves some criticism, but given that neither Braden Holtby nor Justin Peters have hit the .900 save percentage bar, goaltending might be the bigger worry.
18. Toronto Maple Leafs (Last week: 26). Toronto won all three of its games last week, with the opposition ranging from lowly (and dominated) Buffalo to a fantastic Chicago team that fired 47 shots on the Leafs net but was stymied by James Reimer.
17. New York Islanders (Last week: 5). Three straight losses have dropped the Islanders a dozen spots in these rankings, with Thursday's 5-0 defeat at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche the ugliest in that stretch. After winning their first three games in regulation, the Isles haven't managed three regulation wins in the eight games since.
16. Dallas Stars (Last week: 9). The Stars have lost four games in a row, but two of those losses were overtime defeats at the hands of Western Conference powerhouses St. Louis and Anaheim, which would seem to be why our panel hasn't dropped this team further. Free-agent signing Ales Hemsky is still stuck at just one point on the season.
15-11: Calgary Flames-San Jose Sharks
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15. Calgary Flames (Last week: 17). The Flames won two of their three games last week and settled for a shootout loss in their other contest; they now have the 12th-best record in the NHL, which isn't bad for a team most people pegged as a lottery club. It's amazing how a starter with a .938 save percentage can turn things around.
14. Boston Bruins (Last week: 13). Boston won two of its three games last week, though it needed overtime to put the Sabres away. The Bruins are still mired in the bottom-third of the league in points percentage, but Tuukka Rask seems to have finally found his game.
13. New Jersey Devils (Last week: 15). The Devils have won three of their last four and own a lovely 6-3-2 record. That lone loss was quite the blemish, though, as New Jersey was spanked 8-3 on Tuesday by the Penguins.
12. Detroit Red Wings (Last week: 10). Detroit is another team that won two of its three games last week, and the Red Wings even managed to get a point in their loss, a shootout decision in Buffalo. The club currently ranks eighth in the NHL with a 52.9 percent Fenwick rating at even strength.
11. San Jose Sharks (Last week: 14). San Jose has won three of its last four contests, with the only setback being a 4-3 shootout loss to the Minnesota Wild. Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau are scoring, goaltender Antti Niemi's been excellent and Brent Burns' return to the blue line has been extremely productive.
10. Vancouver Canucks
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Last Week: 19
Recent Trend: A four-game winning streak was snapped on Sunday with a loss to Nashville, but the question with Vancouver remains quality of competition. Three of those four wins came against Eastern-based teams; the fourth came over Edmonton.
Big Picture: The Canucks are looking to prove that last year's debacle was an aberration, and they are off to an encouraging start in that regard with an 8-4-0 record, which is the eighth best in the NHL.
By the Numbers: Integral to the Canucks' success has been the play of their new top line, featuring the Sedin twins alongside free-agent addition Radim Vrbata. All three players are at a point-per-game pace or better through the first dozen contests of the season.
9. Nashville Predators
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Last Week: 6
Recent Trend: A red-hot start has cooled somewhat. After going seven games without a regulation loss, the Preds now have two in their last four games. On the other hand, they did manage to go 2-1 on a road swing through Canada and topped the Canucks on Sunday night.
Big Picture: After an extremely difficult season that had some unique problems, Nashville is looking to re-establish itself as a playoff contender in the West. A new coach and a bunch of new players have helped in the early going, as has the emergence of Filip Forsberg.
By the Numbers: Most importantly, Pekka Rinne is in brilliant form, posting a .931 save percentage after managing just a .902 performance in 2013-14. That kind of turnaround from a No. 1 goalie can make all the difference for any NHL team.
8. Los Angeles Kings
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Last Week: 1
Recent Trend: It's a steep fall for the Kings, but they earned it. The team has one point over the first four games of an Eastern Conference road trip, with that point picked up in an overtime loss to Philadelphia. On Sunday, the Kings lost to the rag-tag collection of uninjured players currently representing Carolina.
Big Picture: The Kings have won two Stanley Cups in three seasons. The same core is still in place, virtually in its entirety.
By the Numbers: The Kings' scoring divides neatly into two pieces. The first piece is the part done by Jeff Carter's line, which has combined for 18 goals. The second piece is that done by every other player on the team combined, which adds up to nine goals.
7. Montreal Canadiens
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Last Week: 4
Recent Trend: The Canadiens entered the week with a gorgeous 7-1-0 record and four games against mediocre Western Canadian teams coming up. The Habs managed to lose three of those four games and, as a result, slide three spots this week.
Big Picture: Montreal probably deserves recognition as a contender in the East. The Canadiens went to the Eastern Conference Final in 2014 and won their division the season before that. And while their forward corps doesn't get much love, the defence and goaltending are strong enough to offset that.
By the Numbers: Montreal has been winning pretty much all the close games, boasting a 6-0-1 record when the contest is decided by a single goal and a perfect 2-0 total when it's decided by two goals. The games the team has lost have been stinkers, though. The club is 0-3 in games with a goal differential of three or more goals.
6. St. Louis Blues
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Last Week: 16
Recent Trend: St. Louis has won four straight games, with all of those wins coming over Western Conference rivals that made the playoffs in 2013-14.
Big Picture: The Blues have been a top-two team in the brutally competitive Central Division for three consecutive seasons now and have fallen to the Kings or Blackhawks in three consecutive playoffs. The team is a contender in the West and just needs to find a way to get it done in the postseason now.
By the Numbers: After scoring just one goal on his first 30 shots of the season, Vladimir Tarasenko has scored five times in 15 shots over a three-game span. He now leads all Blues skaters in both goals and points.
5. Chicago Blackhawks
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Last Week: 3
Recent Trend: Chicago has won just two of its last five games, but if not for trouble finishing, the team would be in much better shape. In terms of goals and shots, the Blackhawks went 0-for-33 in a loss to Winnipeg, 2-for-47 in a loss to Toronto and 0-for-38 in a loss to Anaheim. At some point, those pucks usually start going in the net.
Big Picture: Off to a slow start to the regular season, nobody is panicking in Chicago because it's readily apparent that this team is a contender.
By the Numbers: The Blackhawks have scored on just 4.8 percent of their even-strength shots in 2014-15, the second-worst total in the NHL. Last season, Chicago had an 8.40 shooting percentage at five-on-five, which was among the best totals in the game.
4. Minnesota Wild
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Last Week: 8
Recent Trend: The Wild have won three straight games after dropping a 5-4 decision to the New York Rangers on Monday that saw the team surrender five goals in the third period. The loss was embarrassing, yes, but the response to it has been exceptional.
Big Picture: Minnesota doesn't get the same respect that other teams in the West do, but it's doing its best to change that this season. The Wild have an intriguing mix of top free agents and emerging young players, and the team could establish itself as a legitimate contender in 2014-15.
By the Numbers: After posting three shutouts in his first four games, Darcy Kuemper has cooled significantly, posting sub-.900 save-percentage performances in three of his last four contests. The Wild managed to win three of those games anyway.
3. Pittsburgh Penguins
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Last Week: 12
Recent Trend: The Penguins have won four consecutive games, outscoring their opponents by a combined 19-3 margin over that stretch, which included three shutouts. Those wins included 3-0 decisions over the Kings and Predators and an 8-3 blowout of the normally stingy Devils.
Big Picture: The goal in Pittsburgh every year is the Stanley Cup. The Penguins should be one of the top teams in the East, if not the top team by the end of the regular season.
By the Numbers: The Penguins are the only team in the league to date that has failed to win a game decided by a single goal (they are 0-1-1 on the year). The team has made up for it by going a perfect 5-0 in games decided by three or more goals.
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
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Last Week: 7
Recent Trend: Tampa Bay has started its four-game homestand a perfect 3-0-0, albeit against the lowly Coyotes, Flyers and Capitals.
Big Picture: A 101-point team last season with a young core, the Lightning are one of a handful of top teams with the ability to contend for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.
By the Numbers: Somewhat surprisingly, the Lightning's leading scorer is Tyler Johnson. Even more surprisingly, he has 13 assists but only a single goal through a dozen games, going 1-for-35 in converting shots on net.
1. Anaheim Ducks
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Last Week: 4
Recent Trend: The Ducks have slowed since hammering off seven consecutive wins. The team is 3-2-0 over its last five games, with all three wins coming by the margin of a single goal and both of the losses being more lopsided.
Big Picture: The team hasn't advanced past the second round of the playoffs since winning the Cup in 2007, but it did win the very tough Pacific Division the last two seasons. Anaheim expects to contend.
By the Numbers: Part of the reason the Ducks have been so successful is that when the game has been close, it's generally gone their way. Anaheim is a perfect 6-0-0 in one-goal games.
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