MLB Free Picks: Cubs vs. Astros Betting Odds & Trends: July 27th 2009

The Chicago Cubs (51-45 SU, 48-48 RL, 41-52-3 O/U) will be looking to extend their four-game winning streak in the BetUS Sportsbook when they host the Houston Astros (50-48 SU, 52-46 RL, 41-52-5 O/U) at Wrigley Field in the opener of a three-game series tonight at 8 PM ET.

The Astros have dropped two straight including their 8-3 loss to the New York Mets as a -150 favorite on Sunday. Carlos Lee went 3-4 with an RBI and a run scored for Houston while the game’s 11 total runs cashed in for BetUS MLB sports betting enthusiasts that played the Over 9-run O/U total.

The Cubs won their fourth straight game by defeating Cincinnati 5-2 as a -230 favorite on Sunday. Kosuke Fukudome drove in a pair of runs for the Cubs while Rich Harden allowed just one run on one hit with eight strikeouts in six innings as the game’s seven combined runs played Under the 9.5-run O/U total. Tonight, the Astros will pin their hopes on the pitching of gifted left-hander Wandy Rodriguez (10-6, 2.72 ERA) while the Cubs counter with right-hander Carlos Zambrano (7-4, 3.48 ERA)

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and MLB Free Pick.
The Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
The Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Astros are 6-0 in Rodriguez’s last 6 starts.
The Astros are 6-1 in Rodriguez’s last 7 starts as an underdog.
The Cubs are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
The Cubs are 5-0 in Zambrano’s last 5 starts as a home favorite.
The Cubs are 5-1 in Zambrano’s last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
The Under is 4-1 in Rodriguez’s last 5 starts as a road underdog.
The Under is 5-1 in Zambrano’s last 6 starts vs. National League Central.
The Under is 5-1 in Zambrano’s last 6 home starts vs. Astros.
The Under is 5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 6 starts vs. Cubs.
The Astros are 5-1 in Rodriguez’s last 6 starts vs. Cubs.
The Astros are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.
The Cubs are 4-1 in Zambrano’s last 5 home starts vs. Astros.
The Under is 20-6 in Zambrano’s last 26 starts vs. Astros.
The Under is 42-18-2 in the last 62 meetings.
The Astros are 1-4 in Rodriguez’s last 5 road starts vs. Cubs.

MLB Moneyline
Houston Astros +1½ -160
Wandy Rodriguez –L +135
Chicago Cubs -1½ +140
Carlos Zambrano –R -155
Over 8½ -120
Under 8½ Ev

The Scoop: The Chicago Cubs are ranked 26th in hitting with a team batting average of .251 while averaging 4.3 runs per game this season. The Cubs are ranked 5th in pitching with a team earned run average of 3.81. The Houston Astros are ranked 6th in hitting, with a team batting average of .268 while averaging 4.2 runs per game this season. The Astros are ranked 10th in pitching with a team earned run average of 4.18. Wandy Rodriguez has gone 3-0 over his last three starts with an absolutely microscopic 0.41 ERA and limited the St. Louis Cardinals to one run on four hits in seven innings of an 11-6 win on Tuesday. Carlos Zambrano has gone 3-0 over his last three starts with a 3.57 ERA and recorded a win the last time out despite allowing five runs – four earned – on a whopping 10 hits and three walks in just 6.2 innings of 10-5 win over Philadelphia on Wednesday. Click here to bet on the Cubs vs. Astros game at BetUS online sportsbook

Analysis: Wandy Rodriguez has not allowed more than one earned run in four straight starts and five of his last seven starts overall. Carlos Zambrano has allowed at least three earned runs in five of his last eight starts and two of three overall. While it would seem the Houston Astros have the better starting pitcher on the mound in this contest, I’m going to take the Chicago Cubs to win this contest straight up as they have been scoring runs at a fairly high rate, having scored at least five runs in each game of their four-game winning streak and seven of their last 10 games overall. While the Astros had won four straight prior to their current two-game slide and aren’t playing what I’d call horrific baseball, the Cubbies are my pick tonight behind Carlos Zambrano. While the Astros have gone a spotless 4-0 in their last four games against National League Central opponents and 5-1 in their last six games versus a right-handed starter, the Astros have also gone just 7-19 in Rodriguez’s last 26 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Cubs are 5-0 in Carlos Zambrano’s last five starts as a home favorite, 5-1 in Zambrano’s last six starts against a team with a winning record and 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. With the Under going 5-1 in Zambrano’s last six home starts against the Astros and an identical 5-1 in Rodriguez’s last six starts against Cubs, I urge BetUS baseball bettors to lay the Under as well.

MLB Free Picks: Chicago Cubs SU Win/Under 8½ Total Runs