NFL Picks Week 9: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

Just like bettors, most experts are having a tough go of it in the NFL picks department this season.

It is hard to blame them, too. Seattle is losing games at home. Dallas has one of the best records in the NFL and uses a ground game to great effect. There is only one team that has yet to win a game. Cleveland is a serious threat in the AFC North.

Point taken, right? Week 9 is in no way friendly to spectators on the hunt to make some coin. Tough divisional matchups line the slate, and non-divisional encounters are not exactly easy to call, either—especially when throwing in Las Vegas' thoughts on the matter on top of everything else.

Let's take a look at how the experts feel this week.

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread and Expert Picks

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	Jason La Canfora (CBS)	Pete Prisco (CBS)	Michael Fabiano (NFL)
New Orleans at Carolina (Thurs., Oct. 30)	NO -3 (48)	NO	NO	NO	NO
Tampa Bay at Cleveland	CLE -7 (44)	CLE	CLE	CLE	CLE
Arizona at Dallas	DAL -4 (N/A)	DAL	ARI	ARI	DAL
Philadelphia at Houston	PHI -2 (48)	PHI	PHI	HOU	PHI
NY Jets at Kansas City	KC -10 (41.5)	KC	NYJ	KC	KC
Jacksonville at Cincinnati	CIN -13.5 (43)	JAC	JAC	JAC	CIN
San Diego at Miami	MIA -1 (44)	SD	SD	MIA	SD
Washington at Minnesota	WAS -1 (N/A)	MIN	WAS	MIN	MIN
St. Louis at San Francisco	SF -10 (44)	STL	SF	SF	SF
Denver at New England	DEN -3.5 (55)	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
Oakland at Seattle	SEA -15.5 (43)	OAK	SEA	SEA	SEA
Baltimore at Pittsburgh	EVEN (47.5)	BAL	PIT	PIT	BAL
Indianapolis at NY Giants (Mon., Nov. 3)	IND -3.5 (51)	IND	IND	NYG	IND

Odds via Odds Shark as of 6 p.m. ET, Oct. 29. NFL.com picks are available here. CBS Sports picks are available here. All expert picks are outright, not against the spread.

Breaking Down Polarizing Matchups

Arizona at Dallas

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Even for experts, it does not get much more polarizing than a bout between two teams with some of the best records in the league (like everyone predicted) when Arizona makes the trip to Dallas.

The Cowboys have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL thanks to DeMarco Murray, who averages 5.1 yards per carry and has 1,054 yards and seven touchdowns. That seems like a huge advantage, but try to keep in mind that the Cardinals rank No. 3 overall against the rush this year, allowing an average of just 77.9 yards per game.

Really, this one is destined to get solved through the air, considering Arizona, despite the presence of Patrick Peterson, ranks dead last against the pass. Dallas ranks 15th for the time being but has had its known struggles in recent years.

That gets tricky too, though, as Dallas lost Tony Romo briefly last week to a back injury. As ESPN's Ed Werder points out, his status is a question mark:

Arizona is led by a resurgent Carson Palmer, who has very quietly had one of the best seasons of his career when healthy:

OPP	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	TD	INT
vs. SD	24	37	304	64.9	2	0
vs. WAS	28	44	250	63.6	2	0
at OAK	22	31	253	71.0	2	1
vs. PHI	20	42	329	47.6	2	0

Given the fact Romo could be out of commission, meaning Brandon Weeden is all that separates the Cowboys from a ridiculously one-dimensional attack, it is easy to see why some are comfortable with the Cardinals. 

Others see the light that is Romo absolutely torching the Cardinals secondary at home, pressure or not.

For now, the healthy team with a better defense figures to win out.

Prediction: Cardinals 24, Cowboys 14

Ravens at Steelers

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Shocking, right?

Even though it has lost some of its luster, who could have guessed the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens would cause a bit of pause among experts and fans alike?

Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar put it best: 

On one hand, many would think Pittsburgh has a big advantage at home one week removed from scoring 51 points in a win over a contender in the Indianapolis Colts.

"We know what we're capable of," said running back Le'Veon Bell, per STATS LLC, via ESPN.com. "We showed everybody. Now we have to go out there and put performance on top of performance."

Bell is certainly a reason to like the Steelers thanks to his 691 yards and a score on 4.9 yards per carry.

	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Steve Smith	41	675	16.5	4
Torrey Smith	18	308	17.1	4

Then again, Baltimore won the first meeting between these two teams, 26-6. Joe Flacco leads one of the NFL's better passing attacks thanks to a pair of Smiths, the ground game is also one of the NFL's best thanks to Justin Forsett (571 yards, three scores) and Lorenzo Taliaferro (226 yards and four scores), and the defense ranks among the top 10 against the run.

While signs may point to an offensive explosion, all involved know better when it comes to these two. In a physical encounter, the safe bet seems to be with the team that has been more consistent over the course of the season to date, meaning the Ravens are due for a clean sweep of their bitter rivals.

Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 17

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay and Tennessee on bye.