Free MLB Picks: Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: July 24 2009

Free MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox – The Red Sox owned a three-game lead over Yankees in the AL East after last Friday’s 4-1 win at Toronto. However, Boston hasn’t won since and opens a six-game homestand 2 1/2 games behind New York. The Red Sox have dropped a season-high five in a row while batting a pathetic .193 as a team and averaging only 1.8 RPG during their slide. All five losses have come on the road, where the Red Sox are 24-25 this season, batting .252 and averaging 4.6 RPG. In comparison, the Red Sox own MLB’s best home winning percentage (.689) with a 31-14 mark at Fenway where they are batting .271 and averaging 5.6 RPG. The Orioles ‘limp’ into this series 41-53, 16 1/2 games behind the Yankees and with a pathetic 15-32 (.319) road mark. So what else is new? The Orioles have lost at least 50 road games over each of the last three seasons (90-153 overall, .370) and are “on pace” to lose 55 games this year away from Camden Yards. The Red Sox have gone 155-88 (.638) at Fenway in that same three-year span, including 56-25 last year (plus-$1,726). Boston’s well on its way to another outstanding home mark in ‘09 (31-14, plus-$875) and have won NINE straight at Fenway over the Orioles since Baltimore won 7-3 back on July 11th of last season. The Orioles are a horrific 1-14 on the road against AL East teams in 2009 and there is little reason to expect their fortunes will change tonight. Rookie Brad Bergesen has pitched very well at home in 2009 (he’s 6-1 with a 2.82 ERA / team is 8-2) but on the road is 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA (team is 1-6). Baltimore backers may be happy to see Brad Penny on the mound for Boston, as he allowed eight ERs in just three innings in his first career start against Baltimore back on April 17 at Fenway, although Boston went on to win that game 10-8. While Penny’s ERA is 5.02 on the year, let me note that since that April 17 home start vs Baltimore, Penny is 4-1 in eight Fenway starts (team is 6-2), posting a 3.28 ERA. The price is a little steep (and I expect it to go higher), so let’s make the Red Sox a small play. For more baseball picks from Larry Ness visit handicappers picks