Why Roger Federer Will Win 2009 US Open

While most people are focused on Tour de France Stage 18, or the Erin Andrews peephole tape, or the cool new Vibram Fivefingers shoes, or NFL betting, or Nadia Marcinkova...Needless to say, the final men's tennis Grand Slam of the year isn't creating a buzz near the water cooler.

Nonetheless, we aren't too far away from it and even though it's early, it's hard to envision anyone except for Roger Federer winning the U.S. Open.

Sure, Andy Roddick gave him a Rafael Nadal-like run for his money at the Wimbledon finals. While some will expect Roddick to perform even better on his own turf, in front of his own fans, when have we ever known Roddick to be consistent? For all we know, that was just one good stretch of tennis.

A lot of people will be curious to see what type of shape Nadal is in when he returns next month in Montreal. He's been out for a while and obviously wants to get back in the swing of things, but let's face it, he has to be at the top of his game to be Federer.

At this point, we can't bank on that, especially on the hard court surface, which may hurt his knee even more.

So that leaves the likes of Andy Murray or maybe even Novak Djokovic, but nobody takes either of these guys seriously. Mopy Murray failed to get to the Wimbledon Final when he caught a huge break with Nadal pulling out of his side of the draw and many people might say that he's entering Djokovic territory.

He might turn out to be one of the most talented players on the Tour that may never win unless Federer is out of the way.

The sportsbook odds makers have Federer as a huge favored (+160) with Mopy Murray second (+300) and Nadal third (+500). The fact that Roddick is 13-to-1—along with Novak Djokovic—shows how much faith Vegas has in them.

As long as Federer is on top of his game, and quite clearly, right now he is, there is no reason to expect him to lose at Flushing Meadows. That should set up a fairly interesting Australian Open next year.