Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears: Breaking Down the Bears' Game Plan

A lot is on the line Sunday when the Green Bay Packers travel to Chicago to face the Bears. The two teams likely will be headed in opposite directions come late Sunday afternoon.

For the Packers, Aaron Rodgers has been telling everyone to “relax,” to not worry about the offensive struggles. "Five letters here just for everybody out there in Packer-land: R-E-L-A-X," Rodgers said Tuesday on his ESPN Milwaukee radio show, via ESPN.com. "Relax. We're going to be OK."

Green Bay’s offense has been very pedestrian through the first three games of the season. The Packers sit at No. 28 in total yards, No. 21 in passing and No. 26 in rushing.

Despite facing three tough defenses—the Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, Detroit Lions—the Packers offense looks to be in more disarray than in seasons past. It’s worth mentioning that Green Bay has started each of the past three seasons with a 1-2 record, so this shaky start is familiar territory for the Pack.

For the 2-1 Bears, a home divisional matchup with a Packers team that appears to be very combustible could help them continue their solid start to the 2014 campaign.

After losing to Buffalo at home in Week 1, the Bears have bounced back and gone from one coast to the other to win back-to-back games on prime-time television. It wasn’t the route we all thought the Bears would take to get to 2-1, but sometimes it’s better to take the road less traveled.

We don’t yet know what kind of team the Bears are at this stage, but the outcome against Green Bay should tell us which direction to lean.

Here are the possible outcomes

1. Chicago wins and everyone hops on the Bears bandwagon with the belief that if Mel Tucker’s defense can shut down Rodgers and the Packers, the sky's the limit.

2. Chicago loses and the nation is once again wondering whether Jay Cutler is a leader of men and Tucker’s defense simply can be average enough to help get the Bears to the playoffs and beyond.

3. Green Bay wins and “Packer-land” collectively breathes a sigh of relief while eating one giant wheel of cheese.

4. Green Bay loses and all of “Packer-land” teams up to force Rodgers to stop dating Olivia Munn.

Let’s now take a look at how the Bears can come out on top.

Get Eddie Lacy moving laterally

As bad as the Packers offense has been this season, Eddie Lacy arguably has been worse. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year has not fared well through three games, rushing for just 113 yards on 35 carries. He's also suffered a concussion.

Lacy got concussed during the Packers’ Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. Despite being cleared by team doctors, Lacy hasn’t looked right since. Health is not an issue, though, according to the running back (via ESPN Milwaukee):

"

There were some instances where we might not have been on the same page or something like that, but it’s a long season...We have a long way to go and it’s something we’re going to get worked out. It’s just timing and knowing where they’re going to be—when they’re coming off of blocks, who they’re going to block next and just timing it up so when they get to that block you’ll be just about to reach the level that they’re on.

"

Rewatching some tape from this season, Lacy has struggled tremendously when bouncing runs outside. Fourteen of Lacy’s 35 carries were ran at or outside of the tackles and averaged a measly 1.35 yards per carry, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). For comparison’s sake, 111 of Lacy’s 409 carries in 2013 were run at or outside the tackles, for an average of 3.68 yards per carry.

Now you might look at the 3.68 yards per carry and think to yourself that he wasn’t very good last season outside the tackles. But consider this: Lacy is not a speedster in any sense. He is at his best when he takes on contact with a head of steam. If the Bears can force him to the outside, the odds of bringing him down on the first attempt are much better. Taking it a step further, 88 of Lacy’s 113 rushing yards have come after contact, according to PFF (subscription required). So he’s not an easy guy to bring down to begin with.

“There were a few times last week where I was running kind of high and I just figured that out,” Lacy said. “This week, definitely get my pads down when I’m running.”

The Packers likely will game-plan to get Lacy going against a Bears rush defense that had been gashed in the season opener by the Buffalo Bills prior to the back-to-back wins in San Francisco and New York.

Show off the defensive discipline you’ve learned in the first three games

The Bears have played three teams this season who frequently use aspects of the read-option—Buffalo’s EJ Manuel in Week 1, San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick in Week 2 and New York’s Geno Smith in Week 3.

Tucker’s defense struggles with decision-making when defending the read-option, often losing the edge by overpursuing either the quarterback or the running back. This is a large reason why the Bears run defense has struggled so much dating back to last season. Buffalo rushed for 193 yards (19 by Manuel) against the Bears. San Francisco rushed for 127 (64 by Kaepernick), and New York rushed for 114 yards (20 by Smith).

Twenty-four percent (103 yards) of the total rushing yards (434) the Bears have allowed have come by the way of the quarterback. This week, for the first time this season, the Bears won’t face a team that thrives on read-option packages.

Chicago’s defense has spent the past three weeks working on the following: not losing containment, not being caught between taking the quarterback on or playing coverage, not biting on misdirection/read option, among other things.

Everything the Bears defense has learned this season should come in handy against Rodgers and the Packers.

Not losing containment will allow the Bears to follow Lacy laterally as he looks for a hole. To not get caught up in the wash, the Bears front seven must engage, separate, discard and move on after first contact with Packer offensive linemen. This will create more congestion around the line of scrimmage. And not biting on the quarterback’s first move should play a role in defending Rodgers, who loves to move the pocket and use pump fakes to bait the secondary into reacting too soon.

Green Bay will be a tough test for a Bears defense that has been mangled by injuries, forcing rookies like Kyle Fuller, Will Sutton, Ego Ferguson and Brock Vereen into action right out of the gate. The Bears' depth has stepped up, but can it continue to do so against one of the league's best quarterbacks? After this game is over, we’ll have a very good idea as to how good, mediocre or bad this Bears defense is.

“Every game is a measuring stick,” Lance Briggs said Wednesday, via the Chicago Sun-Times. “Each week it’s defining. We are starting to create kind of an identity."

Create that identity, Lance!

Will Trestman call Matt Forte's number?

Forte can’t really be happy with his output so far this season. Carrying the ball 42 times for 136 yards in three games, Forte has been the least-used option in the Bears offense.

The Bears rank No. 30 in rushing attempts and No. 32 in rushing yards. Keep in mind who the Bears have played, though. Buffalo ranks No. 6 in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, while San Francisco is No. 7 and New York is No. 1.

Luckily for Forte and the Bears, Green Bay’s run defense is just as bad as Chicago's running game. Packer defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ run defense ranks No. 30 in total yards, averaging 156.3 yards per game.

Is this when Trestman decides it’s time to unleash Forte? It certainly would make sense.

The Bears pass/run margin has become more balanced since Week 1 against the Bills, when Cutler dropped back 73.1 percent of the time. It dropped to 64.6 percent pass last week against the Jets.

Perhaps Trestman has found a margin that works for his scheme, for his personnel, despite Brandon Marshall’s ankle injury and the injuries that have been suffered on the offensive line. As long as Cutler is playing somewhat mistake-free football, Trestman has no incentive to turn up the volume on the running game—which might be to Forte's frustration. How much can he really complain, though, when the Bears have a 2-1 record.

If ever there was a time to do Forte a favor and give him the rock, early Sunday afternoon would be a great time for it.

Prediction: Bears 31, Packers 27