Will Josh McRoberts Break Out or Be Exposed in Expanded Miami Heat Role?

Forget Time Warner, Apple and Apogee Enterprises: Buy stock in Josh McRoberts.

The former Charlotte Bobcat—themselves now the former Charlotte Bobcats—is poised for a breakout season in the comparatively cozy environs of American Airlines Arena. He’s the right player, in the right context and he looks to be squarely in his prime. Big things, dear reader, are forthcoming for the whiskered and multi-skilled starting power forward for the Miami Heat.

The 6'10," 240 pounder blossomed last season in Charlotte, his age-26 campaign. The forward finished second on the feisty ‘Cats with 6.5 win shares, per Basketball-Reference, and hit 105 of his 291 three-point attempts—both career-bests. He also continued his development into one of, if not the, best passing big men in the game.

In 2013-14, McRoberts notched 4.3 assists a night against just 1.1 turnovers. While those figures don’t sound terribly gaudy, according to ESPN, his 32.7 assist ratio led all power forwards by 8.6 percentage points and was good for 14th in the league.

Consider this: His assist ratio was just 3.5 percentage points below Chris Paul’s and 3.8 above Kyle Lowry’s. The dude can dish it.

And what’s especially exciting about McRoberts is the way this unusual skill set will be complemented by, and in turn complement, the Miami attack.

Ned Dishman/Getty Images

“Playing off more versatile and skilled teammates than those he left in Charlotte should emphasize what he brings to the table,” wrote Hoops Habit’s David Ramil. “Expect McRoberts to be fan favorite in Miami by mid-season and for years to come.”

Miami had such a good thing going in recent seasons because of the way it stretched opposing defenses. In short, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade torched defenders off the dribble while Chris Bosh exerted a gravitational pull away from the hoop on opposing big men by virtue of mid-range magic. And Miami leaned on the corner three to spread the defense even thinner.

This synergy created a buffet of poisonous menu items for opposing defenses. Home in on James or Wade, and Bosh could flay you from 18 feet. Leak out to slow Bosh, and James and his No. 2 would score with ruthless efficiency near the hoop.

Now, losing James changed this calculus quite a bit for Miami. It goes without saying that absent the best basketball player on the planet, the Heat won’t be able to approach the astronomical team true shooting percentage of 59 they posted in 2013-14, according to ESPN.

(About that figure: Michael Jordan, in his Chicago Bulls career, achieved a true shooting percentage of 58, per Basketball-Reference. So the Heat, with Norris Cole taking 500 shots, scored more efficiently than Michael Jordan. Just let that incredible fact settle in.)

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

McRoberts, though, can go a ways toward reestablishing this terrifying balance. By slotting the new acquisition into the 4 spot, Miami can allow Bosh to slide down low—where he’s surprisingly capable of wreaking some havoc of his own—without losing the spacing the Boshtrich had provided.

Bosh, for one, seems excited to return to the more conventional inside game he played in Toronto. He told the Sun Sentinel’s Shandel Richardson:

"

I had to play the role for the championships. I feel that I’m back to doing what comes naturally for me, which is being back in the post, being more aggressive. I’m really excited to show the city of Miami what I have.

"

With McRoberts in tow, the new Miami “O” might look quite a bit like its vaunted predecessor during certain sets—albeit with a bit less firepower.

Bosh can capably inhabit the LeBron role of low-post scorer—he finished fourth in the Association last season in field-goal percentage from within five feet of the basket, according to NBA.com—and lead shot creator, while Wade finds nifty and efficient opportunities as they present themselves and McRoberts acts as the stretchy 4 that keeps defenses honest.

In fact, he's even more stretchy than Bosh, whose role he's assuming. In 2013-14, a season in which Bosh took a career-high 218 three-point shots, just under 23 percent of his total attempts came from this range. Last year, 51.4 percent of McRoberts' attempts came from three.

Of course, McRoberts does come with his share of liabilities. He's a non-entity as a rebounder, he pulled down just 4.8 boards in 30.3 minutes a night a year ago, which in this respect makes him a questionable fit on a Heat team that finished 27th in the NBA in rebounding rate in 2013-14, per ESPN.

But despite his athletic limitations, McBob was a credible part of a very good defense last season. In a June conversation with Mavs Moneyball's Doyle Rader, Charlotte Hornets' blogger Ben Swanson explained that the forward proved to be a capable team defender. 

"

Defensively, McRoberts is no Serge Ibaka -- he lacks the strength in the post and agility -- but he proved to be a fine part of the Bobcats defense. Charlotte's defense is pretty unique (I'm not sure how many coaches could make a top-5 defense out of a roster starting McRoberts and Al Jefferson in the frontcourt) so who knows if that translates over, but McRoberts rotated fairly well in the defense's schemes. 

"

Simply put, there's a lot to like here for Miami. McRoberts cost the Heat a four-year, $23 million contract. This was an unimprovable use of those funds. It’s not just likely that they’ll get more than that out of the diversely skilled forward: it’s a near certainty.