NFL Week 3 Picks: Last-Minute Advice on Vegas Odds and Spreads

When the Atlanta Falcons trounced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a score of 56-14 on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 3 of the 2014 NFL season, we saw what can happen when a strong team in need of a rebound meets a struggling franchise. Needless to say, even Vegas oddsmakers didn't see that one coming.

Is another unforeseen lopsided win in store for one of the week's remaining matchups? Perhaps. Although there are a few contests that look uneven on paper, there are several others that will be highly contested between two evenly matched teams. Knowing which games will yield blowout victories and which will remain close for a full 60 minutes is paramount when attempting to beat Vegas lines.

With 15 more contests set to take place on Sunday and Monday night and teams jockeying for position in the first quarter of the season, let's take a look at the full Week 3 slate, predict the outcome for each game and decide which are the biggest locks against the spread.

Home	Odds	Away	Odds	Prediction
Buffalo Bills	-1	San Diego Chargers	+1	SD, 23-20
New England Patriots	-14.5	Oakland Raiders	+14.5	NE, 31-10
New Orleans Saints	-10.5	Minnesota Vikings	+10.5	NO, 38-17
Cincinnati Bengals	-7	Tennessee Titans	+7	CIN, 27-17
New York Giants	+1.5	Houston Texans	-1.5	HOU, 17-13
Cleveland Browns	+2	Baltimore Ravens	-2	BAL, 27-23
Philadelphia Eagles	-6.5	Washington Redskins	+6.5	PHI, 34-30
Detroit Lions	-1	Green Bay Packers	+1	GB, 33-27
St. Louis Rams	+2	Dallas Cowboys	-2	DAL, 22-13
Jacksonville Jaguars	+7	Indianapolis Colts	-7	IND, 27-10
Arizona Cardinals	+3	San Francisco 49ers	-3	SF, 24-16
Miami Dolphins	-4	Kansas City Chiefs	+4	KC, 23-20
Seattle Seahawks	-5	Denver Broncos	+5	SEA, 27-24
Carolina Panthers	-3	Pittsburgh Steelers	+3	CAR, 24-13
New York Jets	-3	Chicago Bears	+3	CHI, 23-17

All game odds courtesy of Bovada, via OddsShark.com, and current as of September 19.

Week 3 Locks

New England Patriots (-14.5) vs. Oakland Raiders

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Sure, taking a team giving up this amount of points is generally a fruitless endeavor. After all, making up a total of over two touchdowns is a pretty large feat for any team. However, taking into consideration the two most recent performances from these squads, it's safe to roll with New England here.

The Patriots absolutely demolished a Minnesota Vikings team that couldn't get out of its own way last week. Tom Brady didn't have to do much more than manage the game, as Stevan Ridley ran all over Minnesota's defense to the tune of 101 yards and a score on 25 carries. Making things even easier for Brady was New England's defense, which racked up four interceptions, six sacks and returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown.

Meanwhile, Oakland failed to score more than 14 points for the second consecutive week after being demolished by a score of 30-14 by the Houston Texans. Arian Foster ran rampant in Week 2, gaining 138 yards and a score on 28 carries against Oakland's defense. Rookie Derek Carr struggled, throwing two picks against Houston, even though the team's running game produced 5.9 yards per carry.

This tweet from Numbers Never Lie should only increase confidence in the home team:

Expect New England to keep up a high level of intensity on defense, holding Oakland to just two scores, while the offense rolls over a Raiders run defense that is allowing an average of 200 yards per game.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The Colts may be 0-2 after two games, but don't let that fool you in Week 3. Expect Indianapolis to play like an undefeated squad after quarterback Andrew Luck suffered his first back-to-back loss in his NFL career to begin the season. ESPN Stats & Info tweeted the statistic:

Toward the end of three quarters last week, the Colts found themselves up 20-6 over the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. A defensive implosion by Indianapolis—the team allowed 24 points over the game's final 20 minutes—led to a dramatic comeback for Philadelphia. Don't expect Jacksonville to duplicate that feat.

Despite the loss of Robert Griffin III last week, the Washington Redskins pummeled the Jaguars by a score of 41-10. Kirk Cousins came in to replace the injured quarterback and tossed 22 completions for 250 yards and two touchdowns while Jacksonville allowed 191 yards on the ground.

With very little defensive efficiency and an offense that has put up a total of 10 points over its last six quarters, the Jaguars don't have the firepower to keep up with the Colts for a full 60 minutes. Not only will Luck avoid a third consecutive loss, but he'll win in decisive fashion.

Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

MIKE MCCARN/Associated Press

Don't look now, but the Panthers are 2-0 and look like the real deal once again this season. With Cam Newton back in the fold in Week 2, Carolina made easy work of the Detroit Lions, playing a very efficient game on both sides of the ball en route to a 24-7 victory.

Newton completed 22 of his 34 passing attempts for 281 yards and a score against Detroit. He didn't run much in Week 2, but with with his rib injury even further behind him, he may be in line for more work as a dual-threat signal-caller in Week 3 against a Steelers dun defense allowing an average of 174 yards per game on the ground.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense can't seem to get on the same page. While Antonio Brown has continued to display his prowess as the team's No. 1 target, a viable replacement for the departed Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery has yet to step up. This will be an even larger problem when the team heads to Carolina to face the league's No. 2 scoring defense.

Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders tweeted another statistic that bodes well for Carolina:

The Panthers will continue to roll in Week 3, and the Steelers will continue to decline. Expect Carolina to win by a larger margin than three points.