NFL Picks Week 3: Top Underdog Odds, Money-Line Advice and Predictions

Week 3 NFL odds present a strange task for bettors.

Only five spreads opened with a team favored by a touchdown or more.

In other words, Las Vegas figures the week will be a highly competitive one, which is great from an entertainment standpoint but not so great for bettors.

To be fair, though, massive spreads in contests such as Oakland traveling to New England are more than justified, as are tiny spreads in duels such as Dallas and St. Louis, perhaps the biggest stinker on the weekend's slate.

Alas, there is still coin to be had for those who do some homework. Below, let's look at the full slate and then nail down some ideal underdogs in a lineup with few available.

NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup (money line)	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
San Diego (+122) at Buffalo (-135)	BUF (-1)	San Diego	See analysis below.
Dallas (-125) at St. Louis (+105)	EVEN	Dallas	Tony Romo may regress to Week 1 form on the road, but St. Louis can't keep up.
Washington (+252) at Philadelphia (-283)	PHI (-7)	Philadelphia	We need to see Kirk Cousins beat a team not named the Jaguars before jumping fully on board.
Houston (-124) at NY Giants (+110)	HOU (-1)	Houston	Houston's rush will cause turnover-prone Eli Manning to make more than a few mistakes.
Minnesota (+394) at New Orleans (-461)	NO (-11.5)	New Orleans	A reluctance to use Cordarrelle Patterson is the last thing Minnesota needed last week—the staff did it anyway.
Tennessee (+249) at Cincinnati (-279)	CIN (-7)	Cincinnati	Cincinnati has the best defense outside of Seattle, and the offense is currently firing on all cylinders.
Baltimore (-115) at Cleveland (-105)	EVEN	Baltimore	Joe Flacco's offense seems to be in tune after a rocky start, which will be enough on the road.
Green Bay (+110) at Detroit (-124)	DET (-2.5)	Detroit	Green Bay's miserable offensive line is going to cause issues in Detroit.
Indianapolis (-335) at Jacksonville (+293)	IND (-7)	Indianapolis	Andrew Luck normally can't do it all on his own, but he sure can against these Jaguars.
Oakland (+975) at New England (-1400)	NE (-15.5)	Oakland	The least talented team in the league has sure started to play like it.
San Francisco (-155) at Arizona (+135)	SF (-2.5)	San Francisco	A team perhaps without Carson Palmer doesn't get to play the Giants two weeks in a row.
Denver (+201) at Seattle (-229)	SEA (-4.5)	Seattle	Seattle rebounds after a loss. Really, it doesn't lose at home.
Kansas City (+201) at Miami (-229)	MIA (-4)	Miami	No Jamaal Charles (whether due to injury or poor coaching), no win.
Pittsburgh (+153) at Carolina (-167)	CAR (-3)	Carolina	Carolina will have no issue running all over the Pittsburgh defense.
Chicago (+115) at NY Jets (-127)	NYJ (-2.5)	Chicago	See analysis below.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 8 p.m. ET, Sept. 18. 

San Diego at Buffalo (-1)

Buffalo seems to have finally turned a corner and rests at 2-0. A win in Chicago was impressive to start the season, and a 19-point triumph over Miami was solid work, even if the team does seem constructed to beat that opponent in particular.

But the opponent Sunday is San Diego, a team that just took down Seattle—as in the Seahawks, the reigning champs and easily the best roster in the league.

Sure, it came at home, but any doubts about Philip Rivers can remain silent, as the veteran threw for 284 yards and three scores against the so-called Legion of Boom to confirm that he is still in Comeback Player of the Year mode.

Again, the Bills have been impressive through two games. EJ Manuel finally appears confident under center and has an effective new weapon in rookie Sammy Watkins, who caught eight passes for 117 yards and a score against the Dolphins.

But the defense is a question mark. The unit has six sacks to date, but four came against Miami's line, which appears hardly improved over last year. Worst of all, the unit has allowed a combined 590 yards through the air.

Against Rivers, one week removed from shredding Richard Sherman and Co., that just will not cut it. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller concurs:

Yes, the Chargers have to travel across the country for the game. Yes, there is the potential for a letdown after taking down the best.

But the Bills do not have the firepower to counter Rivers, especially when he is backed by a defense that held Arizona to 18 points (in a loss, admittedly) and Seattle to 21.

Prediction: Chargers 23, Bills 21

Chicago at New York Jets (-2.5)

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

So, the Chicago Bears go to San Francisco in Week 2 on Sunday Night Football, pick up an upset victory most did not see coming—especially because the 49ers were playing their first game in their new stadium—and enter Week 3 as...

...underdogs against the New York Jets.

Got it.

But let's take it a step further. Jay Cutler and the Bears were down 17 points at one juncture before rattling off three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull off the upset.

Earlier that day, New York surrendered an 18-point lead on the road en route to a loss.

"As a team, you go and you learn from this," coach Rex Ryan told the media. "I've seen some teams that, when you have a game like this, it can turn your season on a positive note. That's certainly the way I hope we respond to this game."

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Again, it is quite an interesting spread. The Bears are miserable against the run this year (a continuance of last year's issues, despite talent additions such as Lamarr Houston), allowing more than 120 yards on the ground in each contest so far.

Even worse, star corner Charles Tillman is out for the year. But rookie Kyle Fuller took his place last week and nabbed two interceptions. Oh, and New York's No. 1 wideout, Eric Decker, might miss the game entirely or at least not be 100 percent. Oh, and No. 1 corner Dee Milliner is also a question mark.

New York does have the best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 52.5 yards and 2.8 per attempt.

But when Cutler is under center and can spam the ball to Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery (a combined eight receptions for 95 yards and three scores last week) against a hobbled secondary, that facet is sort of a moot point—especially when Oakland and Green Bay are not exactly known for their ground attacks, which plays a part in New York's gaudy run-defense numbers.

The Bears also happen to be 5-1 in prime-time contests under coach Marc Trestman, for what it is worth. Nobody would suggest this will be a blowout, but Chicago is going to take this one.

Prediction: Bears 28, Jets 21

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).