Week 3 NFL Picks: Analysis and Predictions for Weekend's Most Underrated Games

No NFL team is completely down and out through two games of the 2014 season. Week 3 serves as a critical crossroads for just about everyone, but with so many intriguing matchups on tap, there will be some games that go overlooked.

A rare Super Bowl rematch between the Denver Broncos and host champions Seattle Seahawks will headline the action, along with an NFC West battle between the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. Those are expected to be dandies, along with other games featuring to-date undefeated clubs.

Those who are winless can almost count on missing the playoffs, as ESPN.com's Dan Graziano points out:

Every division is so wide-open at this juncture, though, that any win from around the league could instantly change the early complexion of those races.

Let's take a look at the most underrated games Week 3 has to offer through detailed analysis, and then final-score predictions for each.

Away Team	Home Team	Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	Falcons
San Diego Chargers	Buffalo Bills	Bills
Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles
Dallas Cowboys	St. Louis Rams	Cowboys
Houston Texans	New York Giants	Texans
Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Saints
Tennessee Titans	Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals
Baltimore Ravens	Cleveland Browns	Ravens
Green Bay Packers	Detroit Lions	Packers
Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Colts
Oakland Raiders	New England Patriots	Patriots
San Francisco 49ers	Arizona Cardinals	49ers
Denver Broncos	Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Chiefs
Pittsburgh Steelers	Carolina Panthers	Panthers
Chicago Bears	New York Jets	Jets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images

The running back in the photo above is Bobby Rainey. When Atlanta last squared off with Tampa Bay, albeit on the road, Rainey ran wild for 163 yards and two touchdowns.

In the early stages of the 2014 campaign, there hasn't been much tangible improvement on the Falcons defense. They are 31st against the pass, 26th versus the run and have yet to register a sack.

Rainey is coming off a 145-yard effort against the St. Louis Rams' tough front seven, which NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal was an indicator of just how good the young back can be:

For journeyman-turned-starter Josh McCown, this is an ideal matchup with perhaps his job and the Bucs' season on the line.

The veteran quarterback has guided the Bucs to a 31st ranking in passing offense, which has impeded their defense from succeeding to an extent.

This NFC South, Thursday-night battle is a bit of a wild card in that both teams are on a short week. All the pressure will be on Atlanta to take care of business at home. QB Matt Ryan threw three interceptions in Week 2's loss at Cincinnati after leading the Falcons to an epic opening win over New Orleans.

The knee-jerk Week 1 reaction was to label Ryan "elite." Sports Illustrated's Aaron Nagler was among those with an opposite opinion after the Bengals game:

It will be fascinating to see how Matty Ice responds. If the Saints take care of business against Minnesota, there could be a three-way tie at 1-2 in the division should Tampa Bay pull the upset. And the intrigue doesn't end there.

Prominent football reporters at ESPN Insider (Field Yates, subscription required), NFL.com (Gil Brandt) and Grantland (Bill Barnwell) tabbed the Panthers as a prime candidate to regress from their 2013 form.

Based on that expert consensus, it could still happen. Although Carolina has passed its early tests, hosting Pittsburgh on Sunday night would become a lot more pressure-packed with a potential two-game lead to play for.

McCown was 16-of-21 passing for 179 yards and two rushing TDs last week, but he threw his third interception of the year already. This anecdote from Rotoworld's Cian Fahey ought to make McCown's seat under center rather warm:

"

The Buccaneers have lost to Derek Anderson-led Panthers and Austin Davis-led Rams. That playoff optimism should be well and truly quenched.

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) September 14, 2014"

Should McCown fall flat even with another brilliant Rainey performance, the Bucs may run thin on patience and deploy Mike Glennon. Last year's third-round draft pick showed promise as a rookie before being benched for new coach Lovie Smith's handpicked, free-agent arrival.

Ryan will win this game ugly and at least stave off a second-straight season of disappointment for another week. Considering no NFC South champion has repeated as a winner and how lopsided the race appears to be already, Tampa Bay wouldn't be out of it at 0-3 if Glennon came in and gave the offense a spark from Week 4 onward.

Prediction: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 13

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) vs. St. Louis Rams (1-1)

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All-Pro Rams defensive end Robert Quinn is going to bring the pain and should be challenging his unit to improve its rush defense, which ranks a shocking 30th in the league at the moment.

Fresh off a four-year contract extension, it's on Quinn to continue urging his teammates to step up in the absence of Chris Long on the defensive front. If the Rams were to pull off this win, had San Francisco beat Arizona and Seattle defeat Denver, all four NFC West teams would be knotted at 2-1.

Or, Dallas could go on a serious run, as Bleacher Report's Matt Miller suggests:

More on the strange-but-true front: The Cowboys have a top-10 scoring defense and a better running game than the Rams. Based on how stout St. Louis' front seven is and how offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer likes to pound the rock, you'd think those would be reversed.

Also it's odd that Rams QB Austin Davis has thrown for just 30 fewer yards than his Week 3 counterpart, Tony Romo, on 14 fewer attempts. All these reactions sum up Davis' unlikely rise to prominence:

As of Wednesday, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Jim Thomas, it appears Davis is in line to make a second-straight start:

America's Team drafted offensive guard Zack Martin in the first round and is making a real effort to use all-purpose back DeMarco Murray as a workhorse. That's taken some pressure off Romo, the supposedly bad defense, and it came together in an emphatic, 26-10 win in Tennessee this last Sunday.

Now the big men up front just have to do a bit better in keeping Romo upright, per ESPN Stats & Info:

How good has Murray been? These numbers from Pro Football Focus and Gil Brandt of NFL.com offer some idea:

"

#Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart has forced 17 missed tackles this year (T1st with DeMarco Murray). On just 28 total touches

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) September 16, 2014"

When Romo threw three bad interceptions in the season opener versus San Francisco, Dallas' defense actually held up rather well in a 28-17 loss. Then the Cowboys shut down Tennessee Titans QB Jake Locker, who appeared to be gaining steam following Week 1.

It seems only a matter of time before opponents get a read on Davis. The Cowboys can cram the box to stuff Rams RB Zac Stacy, forcing Davis to beat them through the air.

That doesn't sound like a viable strategy. As long as Murray keeps rolling and Romo plays marginally better, this should be a big win for the Cowboys. They could easily be tied for the NFC East lead if Philadelphia falls to divisional foe Washington at home off a short week, creating a three-way tie at 2-1.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Rams 20

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

The stat from Graziano at the top means one of these two teams is doomed at the conclusion of Week 3. Or so it seems.

Despite being on the road, Indianapolis will be expected to take care of business against a still-rebuilding Jaguars team. Colts coach Chuck Pagano doesn't seem too fazed (via ESPN.com's Mike Wells):

"

I'm not worried. Nobody is ready to hit the panic button. It's a marathon, it's not a sprint. We've got 14 games to go. Only thing we're worried about right now is Jacksonville, a division game.

... There are no pity parties in football, nobody feels sorry for the Colts. Certainly we're not going to sit here and dwell on the past and what could have been. We have to worry about this week. We have to worry about practice and being sharp. We have to execute, we have to put a complete 60-minute game together, try to get on the board.

"

But imagine if Jacksonville gets the crowd riled up in its home opener and somehow pulls off an upset?

Suddenly, a Colts team that appeared to be on the ascent, quarterbacked by 2012's top overall draft pick in Andrew Luck, losers of 10 regular-season games in the past two seasons combined, will be 0-3.

As little help as Luck has from the likes of Trent Richardson, who had a costly fumble when Indy blew a home lead to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, it seems unfathomable that the Colts would fall again.

Luck has led 10 fourth-quarter comebacks in his young career, the most since 2012, per ESPN Monday Night:

"

Most game-winning drives since 2012: Andrew Luck 10 Tony Romo 9 Matt Ryan 8 Russell Wilson 8

— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) September 15, 2014"

The Jags deploy the ultimate anti-clutch QB in Chad Henne, owner of a league-low 19.0 QBR in 2014, per ESPN.com. The opposite of dynamic, athletic or exciting, Henne holds the ball too long and doesn't help an already troublesome offensive line.

For a frame of reference regarding this phenomenon, check ESPN Stats & Info:

The Jags' No. 3 overall pick, Blake Bortles, was compared to Luck favorably coming out of UCF and is waiting in the wings.

If Henne turns in another clunker of a game, how long can Jacksonville stick with the following mindset, reported by ESPN's Ed Werder?

Bortles' ability to extend plays with his feet will help mitigate the shoddy blocking issues up front and perhaps open up the running game a little more. And according to Bleacher Report insider Jason Cole, the locker room may be ready for a QB change:

Expect the Colts to get their season back on track, putting the ball in Luck's hands and allowing him to air it out for somewhere around 400 yards. Indianapolis has been too conservative, and with the season on the line, Luck is the man it'll want with the ball in his hands.

It's been a long time since the Jags won, and the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Houston Texans are ahead in the AFC South at 2-0, with first-year head coach Bill O'Brien.

Fans will be clamoring for the Bortles era to begin in Jacksonville. Based on how amazing Bortles appeared to be in the preseason, scanning on full-field reads and making every requisite throw, coach Gus Bradley will have to think long and hard about playing him.

The hardline philosophy of sitting Bortles no matter what may be preventing the Jags from winning far more than they have any business doing in 2014. If they never try, they'll never know what could have been, no matter what type of success 2015 brings, which is when Jacksonville seems to be going all-in.

Prediction: Colts 38, Jaguars 17