Texas A&M Aggies vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs Betting Odds: Analysis, Pick

Texas A&M is only 3-7 against the spread the last 10 times it has been lined as a favorite on the road. SMU is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as a home dog.

The high-flying Aggies bring their show to Dallas for a renewal of an old Southwest Conference rivalry with the Mustangs on Saturday night.

Point spread: The Aggies opened as 28-point favorites at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, but it was 32.5 points by Wednesday with a total of 62, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 57.8-25.2 Aggies

Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread

Some thought the Aggies might struggle without Johnny Football, but while he's been holding a clipboard in Cleveland, his former team has gone on without him to start 3-0 with two covers. Texas A&M sprang out of the gate with a whopping 52-28 “upset” of South Carolina, winning outright as 10-point road dogs.

The Aggies then dispatched Lamar 73-3, covering at -46. And last week, A&M beat Rice 38-10, although it couldn't quite cover the spread at -31. The Aggies only held the ball for 17 minutes against the Owls but made good use of that time, racking up 477 yards of offense on just 47 plays.

New starting quarterback Kenny Hill has done a wonderful job of stepping in behind center for head coach Kevin Sumlin, hitting on 69 percent of his throws. He has 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.

Why the Southern Methodist Mustangs can cover the spread

The Mustangs are trying to play through a change in coaches after June Jones resigned last week. SMU is off to an 0-2 start, whiffing against Baylor and North Texas. The Mustangs tried to hang with the Mean Green last week, and if not for a fumble return for a North Texas score, they would have been right in the game into halftime.

SMU is a program in transition at the moment, both on the sidelines and at quarterback. But the Mustangs are playing at home, where they're 9-4 ATS over the last two-plus seasons. Can interim head coach Tom Mason rally the troops to put on a decent showing in this spot?

Pride, and a little added toughness, can sometimes go a long way toward covering point spreads, and their recent trend is covering at home.

Smart Pick

This one has “ugly” written all over it. Texas A&M has beaten SMU each of the last three seasons by an average score of 45-10, and Saturday's final score could be even worse, with the Mustangs now working with their backup QB.

The only pick one could give here in good conscience would be with the Aggies, minus the points.

Trends

• Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its last five games on the road
• Southern Methodist is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered first-hand unless otherwise noted—check out Twitter for injury updates and line move updates and get the free odds tracker app.