Justin Forsett, Bernard Pierce's Updated Fantasy Outlook Heading into Week 2

Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce are two running backs trending in opposite directions on the fantasy spectrum after Week 1, though not in the order most people were expecting.

Based on past history, the expectation was that Pierce would step in as Baltimore's No. 1 running back this season. After all, he played a huge role in the Ravens' run to the Super Bowl two years ago with 532 yards on 108 carries as a rookie. 

The Ravens increased Pierce's role in the offense last year, giving him 152 carries, but the results fizzled out in a hurry. He averaged 2.9 yards per carry with two touchdowns. He should be in the prime of his career at 23 years old, yet things didn't look much better in Week 1 of this season. 

Pierce had just six carries for 14 yards against Cincinnati. Meanwhile, seven-year veteran Forsett had his best game since 2012 with 70 yards and one touchdown on 11 carries. 

This has led Ravens head coach John Harbaugh to say that he will go with the hot hand at the running back position, via Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com:

"

You go with guys that are making plays at those positions, probably more so at running back than any position, when you have a number of guys kind of in the same spot.

...

It’s just [that] Justin was rolling. He was making good decisions; he was picking up pass protection. We had confidence in him at that time more so than the other running backs.

"

It's hard to imagine Harbaugh having a lot of confidence in Pierce at the moment. As he said, Forsett was doing everything right—not just running the ball well. Now, both backs are going into a matchup that should feature a lot of running.

However, Baltimore's head coach did say that he expects both running backs to see the field a lot on Thursday, via NFL.com's Around The NFL Twitter feed:

Fantasy owners have to be licking their chops because the Ravens are hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. Mike Tomlin's defense is playing on a short week after allowing 183 rushing yards to Cleveland in Week 1. 

That doesn't seem like an accident or aberration, either. Despite leading 27-3 at halftime, Pittsburgh allowed Cleveland to come back in the second half thanks to the running game. The Browns had 121 rushing yards in the last 30 minutes, at a time when they should have been forced to pass to get back in the game. 

Pittsburgh's defense still boasts a lot of old talent—Brett Keisel (35), Troy Polamalu (33), Ike Taylor (34)—that is going to wear down as the games go on. It's also using a lot of rookies and young players, like Ryan Shazier and Sean Spence, who will need time to adjust to NFL offenses. 

Another concerning factor for Pittsburgh's defense, which Dick LeBeau talked about to Mike Prisuta of Steelers.com, is the no-huddle offense:

"

We became a little bit rattled, and we can’t allow that to happen, and we’re working on that. To me that was the biggest issue. We didn’t give ourselves a chance and it showed.

More than anything it was the element of uncertainty. I think they heard the call, but it was happening pretty fast and for many of them it was the first time it was at that tempo, (against) that skilled an athlete. We kind of lost our way there for a while. Fortunately, they settled down at the end there, and collectively we got the win.

"

Polamalu is also quoted by Prisuta as saying that "this no-huddle (offense) has given us some problems." If you are the Ravens, how do you not try to exploit that right out of the gate? Even if that's not normally your style, any possible advantage you can get over a team has to be taken. 

Digging specifically into what fantasy owners can expect from Baltimore's rushing attack, Forsett has to be the play right now. He was superior to Pierce in every way last week, showing more straight-line speed and elusiveness with the ball in his hands. 

Pierce will get his opportunities because it's hard to give up on a 23-year-old player who has shown the ability to be a capable running back. Given the matchup he has this weekend, expect a much better performance than what we saw against Cincinnati. 

However, if you are looking for immediate returns instead of long-term solutions, Forsett is the Ravens running back to watch. He ran well against a very good Bengals defense and has acclimated himself nicely with Gary Kubiak's new zone offense. 

Just as Harbaugh intends to play the hot hand, fantasy owners should do the same thing. Don't go outsmart yourself based on the temptation of what Pierce can do. Instead, look at what Forsett has done and will do. The results will be exactly what you are looking for from a No. 2 RB/flex player. 

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