NFL Week 2 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

NFL spreads are a cruel mistress in the opening weeks of the season.

Look at last week's Jacksonville-Philadelphia matchup. Almost a two-touchdown favorite, the Eagles fell behind 17-0 by halftime. Those who decided Gus Bradley's team was worth the investment because they believe in his rebuild were surely happy.

Then the Eagles rattled off 34 straight points to win and cover.

Don't expect much different from Week 2 as the league hierarchy continues to work itself out. Here is a look at the full list of spreads, with an emphasis on a few lines to avoid after the jump.

NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (Thurs., Sept. 11)	Baltimore (-2.5)	Pittsburgh	See analysis below chart.
Miami at Buffalo	EVEN	Miami	Miami took care of Tom Brady, EJ Manuel shouldn't be a problem.
Jacksonville at Washington	Washington (-4.5)	Jacksonville	Washington lost to a team on a 14-game losing streak. RG3 is a mess.
Dallas at Tennessee	Tennessee (-3.5)	Dallas	Tony Romo does not throw three picks THAT often.
Arizona at NY Giants	NY Giants (-1.5)	Arizona	The NY Giants defense is a mess and can't match up with a pair of great receivers.
New England at Minnesota	New England (-4.5)	Minnesota	That New England defense isn't stopping Adrian Peterson. Mike Zimmer can handle Brady well enough.
New Orleans at Cleveland	New Orleans (-6.5)	New Orleans	Cleveland's biggest weakness is under center, a bad recipe against Drew Brees.
Atlanta at Cincinnati	Cincinnati (-5)	Atlanta	Cincinnati defense showed cracks last week when Baltimore actually caught the ball. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards.
Detroit at Carolina	Carolina (-1)	Detroit	See analysis below chart.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay	Tampa Bay (-4.5)	Tampa Bay	Josh McCown will continue to improve in new surroundings.
Seattle at San Diego	Seattle (-4.5)	Seattle	Seattle secondary can quiet Philip Rivers.
Houston at Oakland	EVEN	Oakland	Home team has an advantage, right?
NY Jets at Green Bay	Green Bay (-9)	NY Jets	Rex Ryan's defensive line will obliterate the Packers offensive line.
Kansas City at Denver	Denver (-12.5)	Kansas City	As long as Andy Reid remembers Jamaal Charles is on the roster, this one should be close.
Chicago at San Francisco	San Francisco (-7)	San Francisco	Chicago's defense is a mess.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis (Mon., Sept 15)	Indianapolis (-2.5)	Philadelphia	Philadelphia offense will have a big day against Colts defense.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 8 p.m. ET, Sept. 9. 

Matchups to Avoid

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

The goal of Thursday Night Football is to provide fans with a great matchup on a national scale, but that is a gift and a curse for bettors who want to whet their appetites before the weekend slate.

This week, bettors get an AFC North battle that has been anything but predictable over the course of the past three or so years, if not more.

Baltimore is at home, but it seems to mean all of nothing. Last week, quarterback Joe Flacco and the Ravens were had by the Cincinnati Bengals. His receivers dropped eight passes, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), running back Bernard Pierce was benched early after a fumble and the defense allowed 301 yards through the air.

As DraftAce.com's Ryan McCrystal points out, there are more than just fumbling issues that have hurt Pierce's chances at a starting gig:

Now contrast all of that with Pittsburgh, a team that hardly got a win over Cleveland to start the season.

The Steelers defense surrendered 389 total yards to a Brian Hoyer-led offense and allowed rookie back Terrance West to rumble for 100 yards on 16 carries. Offensively, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 365 yards, while star back Le'Veon Bell bruised his way to 109 yards and a touchdown.

In other words, this matchup in particular is a convoluted mess in which neither side appears to have a distinctive advantage.

History? It's not any help either, as BaltimoreRavens.com's Garrett Downing reveals:

This is absolutely a matchup to avoid at all costs. Both defenses seem susceptible to major plays, while the offenses are unpredictable at best, especially against such physical divisional opposition.

If bettors feel they must throw some coin down, go with the road team this time around. The Steelers have a better cast of receivers, a better backfield and, arguably, a better quarterback.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Ravens 20

Detroit at Carolina

First things first—the Carolina Panthers sound like they will have quarterback Cam Newton back in the fold, as captured by Joe Person of the Charlotte Observer:

"The way it was explained to me, this one week would make a big difference for him," coach Ron Rivera said, per ESPN.com's David Newton. "So I feel very confident, very comfortable going forward with him."

That sounds great, right? But Newton has missed most of the preseason and valuable time with his new-look receiving corps, which consists of rookie Kelvin Benjamin (who caught six passes for 92 yards and a touchdown last week), Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery.

This means the Panthers will very much rely on the run for the second consecutive week. Against Tampa Bay, the team gave seven or more carries to three different players and ran for 113 yards on a three-yards-per-carry average.

That won't work against Detroit. Coming off a season in which the unit ranked No. 6 overall against the run, the Lions held the New York Giants to all of 53 yards on the ground Monday.

Then again, if Newton has time to throw in the face of an elite rush led by Ndamukong Suh, he should be able to torch a horrible Detroit secondary, regardless of timing with his new cast.

That all sounds very confusing, right? Bleacher Report's Ty Schalter put it best:

This one can swing either way, so it's best to avoid.

If forced to make a decision, bank on Newton's rusty play to hurt the Panthers, especially in the face of a great run defense. Besides, the Panthers have no player who can run with Calvin Johnson, and the emergence of Golden Tate (six catches on as many targets for 93 yards on Monday) across from him should give Carolina some problems.

Prediction: Lions 20, Panthers 17

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).