Free MLB Pick: Houston Astros – July 16th 2009

While the Dodgers are in excellent shape in the National League West, the Astros are far from out of anything in the National League Central. They trail the Cardinals by just 3.5 games and they are in better shape there than they are in the Wild Card race where they are five games behind the Giants.

Houston won four of five games prior to the break and it looks to start strong in the second half. The Astros send their most consistent pitcher to the hill as Wandy Rodriguez had an excellent first half. He posted a 2.96 ERA through 18 first half starts with the Astros going 12-6 in those games. His numbers on the road are not as good but he was hurt by only two bad stats in nine road outings.He allowed three runs or fewer in those other seven games.

The Dodgers counter with Randy Wolf, who is arguably the biggest surprise in the National League. He has a 3.45 ERA and 1.17 WHIP which are his lowest numbers since 2002. While it would be a great story for him to keep it up throughout the entire season, I just do not see it happening. He has been average at home with a 4.04 ERA and he has yet to pick up a win in nine home outings.

Houston is hitting .291 against left-handed pitching, including .311 over its last 10 games and both of those averages top Los Angeles. The Astros are 4-1 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Houston also falls into a very solid contrarian underdog situation.

Play against National League favorites of less than -150 that have an on-base percentage of .340 or better and starting a pitcher who has an ERA of 2.50 or better over his last three starts going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. This situation is 28-13 (68.3 percent) since 1997 with the average run differential being +1.4 rpg in favor of the underdog. 3* Houston Astros –

Courtesy of Matt Fargo – experts.covers.com