Free MLB Pick: Los Angeles Angels – July 16th 2009

Take the L.A. Angels on the Moneyline. We are getting great value here Thursday night with the Angels who have Ervin Santana (1-5, 7.81 ERA) on the mound where he has owned the Athletics in the past with an ERA of just 1.38 over 13 starts against them.

Santana is throwing 90 to 94 m.p.h. consistently and he is 9-1 lifetime against the Athletics, so I look for him to have a solid outing pitching with several days rest. Jason Giambi is just 1 for 14 (.071) against Santana while Jack Cust is just 2 for 10 (.200) against him, so I look for Santana to have plenty of confidence coming into this game after a few rough outings.

The Athletics' starter Dallas Braden (7-7, 3.12) is 0-2 against the Angels this season with an ERA of 4.50 and the Angels' batters have a big advantage since they have faced Braden twice this season while averaging 8.5 hits per game against him.

The Angels are a red-hot 10-1 in their last 11 games in game one of a series and they are 9-1 in their last 10 games against a team with a losing record. The Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 road games against a lefty starter and they are 8-1 in their last 9 games as an underdog including a perfect 6-0 as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Oakland is just 3-11 in Braden’s last 14 starts as a favorite and they are 0-5 in their last five home games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Angels get it done on the road tonight without Vladimir Guerrero (knee) and Torii Hunter (strained adductor) just like they did when they swept the Yankees.

ake the L.A. Angels as my MLB Free Play for Thursday night. 

– Courtesy of Vernon Croy - 10starpicks.com