Washington Redskins vs. Houston Texans: Betting-Odds Analysis and Prediction

Two years ago both the Washington Redskins and Houston Texans won their divisions, but last year they combined to go 5-27 and fired their head coaches.

So two teams looking to bounce back after disastrous 2013 campaigns open 2014 when the 'Skins and Texans hook up in Houston on Sunday afternoon.

Not surprisingly, there are numerous loser trends on both sides, and the computer isn't sure what to make of it.

Point Spread: According to Odds Shark's line updates and matchup report, the Redskins opened as one-point underdogs but were three-point dogs as of Friday; the total was 45.5.

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 13.6-13.1 Redskins

Why the Redskins Can Cover the Spread

The Redskins and Robert Griffin III struggled through sophomore slumps last season, winning just three games, going 5-11 against the spread. But Washington actually ranked ninth in offense last year at 370 yards per game, even with a hobbled RGIII, and 18th in defense, allowing 354 yards per game.

Sounds more like an 8-8 squad than 3-13, but the 'Skins lost seven games by one score or less and twice by one point. They also ranked fifth in rushing at 135 yards per game. But a minus-eight turnover ratio was a problem.

New head coach Jay Gruden does not inherit an empty cupboard; many of the ingredients are already in place. If Washington can get its running game going and limit the turnovers, it should be right in this one.

Why the Texans Can Cover the Spread

The Texans nosedived to the worst record in the league last year, dumped their head coach and recycled their quarterbacks. So there's nowhere to go but up, right?

Former Penn State coach Bill O'Brien takes over a team that ranked 11th in offense last year and seventh in defense, but its minus-19 turnover ratio was easily the worst in the league. Also, Houston lost nine games last year by one score or less, five by a field goal or less.

It faces a Redskins team that has lost six straight as a road dog and covered the spread only once.

Fortunately for the Texans going ahead, turnovers and close games are two trends that tend to even out over the course of a season or three.

Smart Pick

This is a tough one, matching two teams in similar situations. Washington has RGIII, but just how effective will he be?

Houston, meanwhile, has a new starting QB in veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who's just 27-49 as an NFL starter, although most of that came with a bad Buffalo Bills team.

Both teams can run the ball a little, but the Texans have an edge on defense, and they added to that unit by grabbing monster linebacker Jadeveon Clowney with the first pick in the draft. So in what should be a close game (the computer has it as a tie) the pick is with the home team at the short spread.

Trends

• Houston is 4-13 against the spread in its last 17 games.
• OVER is 6-1 past seven Houston openers.
• Redskins lost six straight as road dogs (1-5 ATS).
• Texans 1-5 against the spread past six as home favorites.
• Texans 1-7-1 against the spread, 1-8 SU past nine vs. NFC East teams.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.