Free Baseball Pick: Baltimore Orioles – July 11th 2009

Free Baseball Pick: Baltimore Orioles
July 11th 2009: Courtesy of Cajun Sports – 10starpicks.com

The second game of this three-game weekend set at Camden Yards between the host Baltimore Orioles and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays has a first pitch scheduled for 7:05PM Eastern Time on Saturday evening. The Jays took the opener by a final score of 2 to 0 on Friday. We expect the host to bounce back on Saturday night they had previously won three straight at home versus Toronto until the loss yesterday. Toronto is 18-26 W/L (-6.4) on the highway this season and only 8-17 W/L (-10.0) when facing division opponents. The Blue Jays will send left-hander Ricky Romero to the bump with his record of 2-2 W/L and ERA of 3.60 when he starts away from home. He was involved in the Jays 0-3 W/L performance their last trip here the end of May. Romero started on May 26th pitched for 5.3 innings allowing five earned runs on eleven hits including three homeruns in a 7 to 2 loss. He faces an Orioles team that has averaged 5.3 runs per game at home this season with a batting average of .299 and an OBP of .361. The Orioles have held opponents to 4.7 runs per game with a .277 batting average and an OBP of .331 at Camden Yards in 2009. The Orioles will send Bradley Bergesen to the hill with his 5-1 W/L home record and ERA of 2.83 in nine starts this season Baltimore has won seven of those nine games. Bergesen took the mound in Toronto back on May 2 pitching for 6 innings giving up 3 earned runs in a 5 to 4 loss but was not involved in the decision. The Orioles are 4-1 W/L the last 5 Bergesen starts at home. The Jays are 5-16 W/L on the road versus teams that have a winning home record, 4-17 W/L versus the AL East and 1-7 W/L when installed as a road favorite. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects an Orioles win by 0.88 runs in tonight’s contest. Our Math Model and Pitcher Efficiency Index have the Orioles winning by a larger margin with the Math Model projecting a win by 1.4 runs and our PEI has them winning by 1.79 runs. We will back the host as they bounce back from Friday’s loss and get the Game Two victory.
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