MLB Betting: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Odds & Picks: July 11th 2009

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
Free Pick: New York Mets - July 11th 2009
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Johnny Cueto is coming off of a very poor effort in his last start and hasn’t been sharp lately. However, because he still has a good reputation and solid full season numbers, he’s still getting a fair amount of respect from odds makers and bettors here. The fact is that Cueto’s struggles go back further than one start. He’s allowed at least five runs in four of his last five starts. In one of those four occurrences the runs were unearned but, nonetheless, he was hit hard and the runs kept crossing the plate. In his last four starts, Cueto’s ERA has risen from a 2.17 to a 3.45 - he’s given up six home runs during that stretch. Making matters worse, Cueto has also walked 10 in his last 12 2/3 innings. Additionally, in two career starts against the Mets Cueto is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA. He’s 8-6 at home but 9-13 on the road in his career. Also, he has a 3.38 ERA in day games but a 4.75 ERA in night games.

Johan Santana has pitched at least seven innings while allowing two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. After a minor rough patch in the early part of June, Santana appears to be back on top of his game. Santana is 6-2 at home this season with a 2.08 ERA and a .206 BAA. In his career, the southpaw is 61-27 at home with a 2.95 ERA. Santana’s career record in night games is a remarkable 76-35.

While the Mets still aren’t quite right, the former Cy Young Award winner should be able to get the better of Cueto here. Consider New York.