MLB Betting: Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Predictions: July 7th 2009

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - July 7th 2009 9:40PM
MLB Prediction: Over
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Reason: With this evening’s over/under line having fallen from 9.5 to nine, I feel we’re getting some value with the ‘over.’

The Diamondbacks have seen the ‘over’ go a lucrative 28-15-1 at home this season. That includes a 19-7-1 mark when playing a home game with a total of nine or 9.5 and a 9-1 record when favored at home in the -125 to -150 range.

The Padres have been a profitable ‘under’ team at home over the years. However, the opposite has been true when they’ve played away from pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Looking back more than a decade, we find the OVER at a profitable 539-432-52. That includes a 22-16-1 record this season, including a 9-3-1 mark when the total has been either nine or 9.5.

Davis has admittedly been tough of late and is having a strong season. This is the third time the Padres have seen him this season though and his lone home start against them this season produced 16 combined runs.

Correia has seen four of his six starts against Arizona finish above the number, including both this season. They each finished with double-digits in combined runs. Last time out, Correia was rocked for six runs in five innings.

The Padres bullpen has a poor 5.38 ERA and an ugly 1.705 WHIP on the road. Arizona’s bullpen hasn’t been much better here in the desert as the Diamondback relievers have a combined 5.05 ERA at home. Consider the Over.