Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Odds, Picks & Predictions: July 2 2009

Free MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies +130 odds
(Matt Fargo MLB Predictions | covers.com)

I am taking a shot with the Phillies on Thursday to avoid the sweep in Atlanta. Despite dropping the first two games of this series, Philadelphia is still 26-14 on the road which is the best record away from home in the Majors. It cannot come away with a winning roadtrip but if nothing else, it wants to head into the huge weekend series with the Mets on a winning note. The Braves are hanging around in the division only because no team is taking change. Atlanta is still three games under .500 for the season including a game under .500 at home. Last night, Jair Jurrjens took a no-hitter into the seventh inning so we are not likely to see another pitching performance similar to that tonight. The Braves go with Javier Vazquez who is having a solid season with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP though 16 starts. Those numbers are meaningless however as the Braves are only 6-10 in those games including losses in six of his last seven starts. Also, they are just 3-6 in the nine home games that Vazquez has toed the rubber. He has ad good success against the Phillies of late but all of his starts have come in Philadelphia. He will be opposed by J.A. Happ who is having a very good season as well. He has tossed two straight quality starts including his best game of the season, a five-hit shutout at Toronto in his last outing. He has been great on the road, posting a 1.67 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in four starts and five relief appearances. Three of those four starts have been quality performances. He finished last season by pitching against the Braves twice and put together two great games, both being quality and together resulting in a 1.42 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Both also ended up being Phillies victories. The Phillies fall into a very good underdog contrarian situation as well. Play on road teams between +125 and -125 that are hitting.240 or worse over their last 10 games and going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This situation is 60-36 (62.5 percent) since 1997 and with it being an average underdog situation, the results are even better. 3* Philadelphia Phillies