Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals Odds, Picks & Predictions: June 23 2009

Free MLB Picks: Boston Red Sox -127 odds
(Robbie Gainous MLB Predictions | betfirms.com)

The Washington Nationals will play host to the Boston Red Sox for a three-game interleague series which features a Red Sox’s team that hasn’t played in our nation’s Capital since 1971. Boston has won their last four series heading into this matchup with the Nationals who have surprisingly won two of their last three series. Washington took two out of three games versus the Yankees in Gotham and then took two out of three from the Blue Jays at home. The Nationals will send John Lannan to the bump with his 4-5 W/L record and ERA of 3.38 on the season. The Nats will face a Red Sox pitching staff that has carried their team during the month of June with an ERA of 3.24. Washington is 8-21 W/L when installed as a home underdog and 8-22 W/L when Lannan takes the bump as an underdog. They are also only 6-20 W/L when Lannan is coming off a quality start in his last outing. Boston will send Brad Penny to the hill with his 6-2 W/L record and ERA of 4.94. Both of Penny’s last starts have been solid although he failed to get a decision after throwing six shutout innings against the Yankees but in his last outing against Florida he allowed one unearned run and three hits over five innings of work in a 6 to 1 win. Penny is 12-5 W/L with an ERA of 2.54 in twenty starts versus the Nationals. We have a few key angles that may have an impact on tonight’s contest. Boston is 9-0 W/L (+9.4) when playing with a day off this season and 10-0 W/L (+10.9) after five or more consecutive home games. Washington is 3-23 W/L (-19.9) when their bullpen has thrown for thirteen or more innings over their last three games the last two seasons. Boston is 22-9 W/L (+11.3) versus a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse this season. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Red Sox win by 2.3 runs over the Nationals on Tuesday night. Our PPR and Math Model also project a Sox win so we will back the visitor here and the better team at this short price as they impose their will on a Nationals team that has played well above their skill level the last two series.