Every MLB Division's Dark-Horse Contender Entering the 2014 Season
If there's one thing to know about Major League Baseball, it's that assuming you know anything before the games get started is foolish.
Last year, for instance, if someone would have said in April that the Boston Red Sox would win the World Series, or the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians would make the playoffs, you would have looked at them as if they had three heads.
Teams can pull off surprises in ways that no one can forecast. That's why the idea of a dark horse is so compelling, because it's easy to create scenarios in which a few things break the right way, and 90-plus wins fall into a team's lap.
There are obvious favorites in all six divisions to start the year. No one will bat an eye upon hearing that Boston, Detroit, Texas, Washington, St. Louis and Los Angeles have the talent to play in October.
But where are the deep sleeper teams at? Is someone ready to make a Pittsburgh- or Cleveland-like surge in 2014?
Let's take a look at the dark-horse contenders in all six MLB divisions at the start of the season.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted. Projected 2014 records courtesy of statistician Clay Davenport.
American League East: Toronto Blue Jays
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2013 Record: 74-88, Last Place in AL East
Projected 2014 Record: 78-84, Fourth Place in AL East
Admitting up front that the American League East is the one division where it's hard to see any scenario where the dark horse wins it, the Toronto Blue Jays remain an intriguing, fascinating collection of talent who should flirt with .500 by the end of the year.
Of course, being .500 in a division with the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees is good enough to get you into fourth place.
But the Blue Jays aren't without upside. Last year they fell apart so quickly, due to injuries and players underperforming, that it would have been impossible to dig out of the hole if they got everyone back at full strength in August.
Keeping Jose Bautista and Jose Reyes healthy is critical for the offense. Bautista has played just 210 games in the last two years, but because he has such tremendous power, he still has 55 home runs in that span.
Reyes played just 93 games last year and is already dealing with a hamstring strain, so who knows what the Blue Jays can realistically expect from him this season.
However, even with some questions about health in the lineup, pitching remains the biggest obstacle standing in Toronto's way. The team didn't bite on Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez when neither could find an offer until after spring training started.
The rotation to start the year features R.A. Dickey, Drew Hutchison, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow and Dustin McGowan. Dickey is a knuckleballer, so good luck trying to project that. Hutchison has a lot of upside entering his second year but still has to prove himself.
Buerhle is reliable as a guy who will take the ball every fifth day and have an ERA around 4.00, but he's not an impact pitcher. Morrow has a great arm, though it's probably long past the point where starting is a viable option because he can't stay healthy.
Yet we have seen Dickey win a Cy Young Award in the past, and Hutchison averaged 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings last year—and he is only 23 years old. If they catch lightning in a bottle, with that offensive firepower, there's a lot of hope.
It's fleeting hope, sure, but even that is better than nothing.
American League Central: Kansas City Royals
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2013 Record: 86-76, Third Place in AL Central
Projected 2014 Record: 77-85, Fourth Place in AL Central
Unlike the American League East, where there are three teams with a legitimate chance to win the division, the American League Central is a one-horse race.
The Detroit Tigers have been kings of this division for the last three years and are still the most talented team in the Central. They deserve to be overwhelming favorites to represent the Central in the playoffs again.
However, age is going to start catching up to the Tigers. Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Nathan and Victor Martinez are all 30 or older entering 2014.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is starting to reap the rewards of a deep farm system. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez and Yordano Ventura have all graduated to the big leagues, the latter winning a job in the rotation out of spring training.
Moustakas had a disastrous 2013 season, hitting .233/.287/.364, but is just one year removed from racking up 55 extra-base hits. He's never going to be a big on-base percentage guy, so that power is critical.
Some of the offseason additions, such as Jason Vargas and Omar Infante, were puzzling just because of the length on their contracts. Both players signed four-year deals, for the record.
Ventura has the ability to be a monster very soon with a 101 mph fastball, though commanding the pitch is going to be vital for him to succeed.
ESPN's Jim Bowden (Insider subscription required) predicted the Royals to win the Central this year because of their defense and depth in the bullpen. He does note that the rotation after James Shields has to step up in order for it to happen.
Starting pitching is the biggest problem area, though having an elite defense can help a pitcher like Vargas, who gives up a lot of contact, look better than his peripheral numbers would suggest.
The Royals are also able to dip into the farm system should a need arise in the rotation. Danny Duffy is a phone call away in Triple-A, and Kyle Zimmer could be in Kansas City later this year after ending 2013 in Double-A.
Having resources, whether in prospects or money, is critical to success in Major League Baseball. The Royals have more depth, top to bottom, than anyone else in the Central and are one year away from being on the same level as Detroit.
American League West: Los Angeles Angels
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2013 Record: 78-84, Third Place in AL West
Projected 2014 Record: 84-78, Third Place in AL West
Getting the personal bias out of the way first, part of me is rooting for the Angels to get in the playoffs just so Mike Trout can get the MVP award he so richly deserves.
MVP for Trout or not, the Angels are still flying too far under the radar in the American League West. They are volatile, for sure, but their offseason upgrades make them a lot more interesting than where they finished 2013.
Of course, the biggest questions for the Angels revolve around Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton. Pujols' body finally broke down last year, limiting him to 99 games, but he's healthy and was actually hitting in spring training (.321/.377/.528).
Hamilton is no longer an MVP candidate but did hit .287/.341/.460 in the second half of 2013. If the Angels get that kind of production from Hamilton, and keep Pujols healthy, suddenly the offense goes from good to great.
And keep in mind that with Pujols missing 63 games and Hamilton being lost for three months, the Angels still finished seventh overall in runs scored.
Starting pitching has been Los Angeles' Achilles' heel. Jered Weaver's innings have decreased from a career-high 235.2 in 2011 to 188.2 in 2012 to 154.1 last year. C.J. Wilson has been solid as the No. 2 guy for Mike Scioscia's rotation throwing 414.2 innings the last two years.
Skaggs is the most intriguing name in the group. The left-hander was drafted by the Angels in 2009 before being traded to Arizona in the Dan Haren trade, but Skaggs is back with his original club and looks more like the player who ranked ninth on MLB.com's Top 100 Prospects list in 2012.
ESPN's Keith Law (Insider subscription required) included Skaggs in a list of breakout candidates this season, saying the lefty "has been hitting 95 mph again this month with his old curveball back."
If Skaggs continues to develop his fastball command and work in a changeup, he could end up as the No. 2 pitcher on the roster at the end of 2014.
It should also be mentioned that this division is impossible to forecast at the beginning of 2014 because Texas has placed Yu Darvish, Jurickson Profar, Geovany Soto, Derek Holland on the disabled list to start the year.
Oakland is going to be without Jarrod Parker all year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and A.J. Griffin is starting the year on the disabled list with a muscle strain.
Those are the two best teams in the division with significant injury concerns, so the door is wide open for anyone except Houston to make a real playoff run. Even Seattle, which is far from a perfect team, has a chance with an improved lineup, thanks to the addition of Robinson Cano.
Like the Athletics, though, the Mariners are starting the season without two key parts of the rotation after Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker were placed on the 15-day DL.
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National League East: New York Mets
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2013 Record: 74-88, Third Place in NL East
Projected 2014 Record: 78-84, Third Place in NL East
If the Detroit Tigers are the surest of sure things in the American League, the Washington Nationals have been handed the National League East on a silver platter. Their main competition is Atlanta, which lost Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy to Tommy John surgery.
Short of Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann all breaking down at the same time, there's no excuse for the Nationals if they miss the playoffs this year.
Atlanta's misfortune opens the door for the Mets, who aren't nearly as bad as one might think. Not having Matt Harvey in the rotation keeps them from being a wild card threat, but there is a lot of depth in the rotation.
Bartolo Colon, Zack Wheeler and Dillon Gee is a solid start to the pitching staff. Jon Niese will start the year on the disabled list but is expected to be activated on April 6. Star prospects Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero aren't far away from pitching in New York.
The offense, once so reliant on David Wright to carry the load, will get a much-needed jolt of power with Curtis Granderson. He's not going to hit for average, but 25-30 homers seems like a fair proposition for the former Yankee.
Catcher Travis d'Arnaud made it through spring training healthy, and it's finally time to see if he's ever going to reach the potential that made him a key part of the R.A. Dickey trade two years ago.
There are still too many easy outs in the lineup for the Mets to be a real contender in 2014, but the rotation has upside and could be one of the better units in the National League. With very little depth after the top three teams in the league, the Mets may have enough to compete for a wild card spot.
National League Central: Pittsburgh Pirates
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2013 Record: 94-68, Second Place in NL Central
Projected 2014 Record: 83-79, Second Place in NL Central
It seems silly to think a playoff team from last year is a dark horse the next year, but there's an expectation the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to take a step back this season. It's also not hard to understand why.
As much fun as watching playoff baseball in Pittsburgh was, the Pirates had so many things go right last year that aren't likely to repeat themselves. Four relievers (Vin Mazzaro, Justin Wilson, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson) had at least 70 innings and an ERA under 3.00.
Losing A.J. Burnett to Philadelphia is going to hurt more than they know, though being able to plug Gerrit Cole into the No. 2 spot for a full season makes the blow easier to take.
Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe named Cole as his breakout player for 2014 because of the way he attacked hitters and how the Pirates managed his innings.
"He showed maturity beyond his years as a rookie, not only putting up strong numbers across the board but also sticking to a game plan that emphasized efficiency, allowing him to tally 196⅓ innings in his age-22 season. With the help of pitching coach Ray Searage, I expect the 2011 No. 1 overall pick to emerge as a legitimate front-of-the-rotation talent.
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Jaffe's piece mentioned Ray Searage, who really is the most underrated pitching coach in baseball. He helped turn Burnett and Francisco Liriano into stars again, made Charlie Morton into a groundball machine (62.9 percent) last year and worked wonders with that bullpen.
The offense isn't great, with the exception of Andrew McCutchen, but there is enough depth and power to turn this into an average group. Starling Marte has a lot of tools and showed them last season. Russell Martin and Pedro Alvarez may combine to hit .220 but will add 50-55 homers.
Oh yeah, the Pirates also boast the best farm system in baseball according to Baseball America. Key players like Gregory Polanco and Jameson Taillon are starting the year in Triple-A and should be up in May or June.
The Pirates are definitely trending in the right direction. Unfortunately they play in the same division as a St. Louis team that has 10 projected starters all under the age of 30 with prospects like Oscar Taveras and Stephen Piscotty on the way.
National League West: San Diego Padres
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2013 Record: 76-86, T-Third Place in NL West
Projected 2014 Record: 83-79, Third Place in NL West
It would be easier to pick Arizona or San Francisco as a threat to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, but the Padres aren't getting as much credit as they deserve considering the talent they have.
Yes, Josh Johnson is already hurt and on the disabled list, but we knew that was coming sooner than later. Ditto for Carlos Quentin, who is dealing with a bruised knee. Losing Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland to injuries does put a dent in the rotation depth.
Of all the problems San Diego can have, pitching depth is low on the list. Petco Park can make good pitchers great and mediocre pitchers good. It also helps that Andrew Cashner took a huge step forward last year with career highs in innings, ERA and home runs per nine innings.
Rotation help is on the way with prospects Matt Wisler and Casey Kelly, who had Tommy John surgery last March, set to arrive in San Diego at some point in 2014.
The question for San Diego has always been on offense. Where are the runs going to come from? Chase Headley played closer to his career stat line in 2013 (.250/.347/.400). Cameron Maybin is out for at least two months with a torn biceps.
It's going to be a struggle to score, as it always is for San Diego, but Jedd Gyorko has the hitting ability to become an above-average regular. He did hit 23 home runs last year, 15 in the second half and 13 at home.
Yonder Alonso hasn't hit for power the way anyone expected after being acquired from Cincinnati, but his .346 career on-base percentage is encouraging. Everth Cabrera is a very good catalyst at the top of the order, decreasing his strikeout rate nearly 10 percent from 2012 to 2013, and stealing 37 bases with a .355 on-base percentage.
They have guys who can get on base, the problem is finding the hitters in the middle of the order to drive them in. It's a long shot, but there is hope in San Diego.
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