NFL Picks Week 16: Predicting Outcomes of Potential Trap Games

There are a few top NFL teams in danger of falling prey to a trap game in Week 16.

Faced with relatively easy opponents this upcoming weekend and a critical divisional contest in Week 17, upsets could occur that would be highly detrimental to playoff seeding.

On paper, there's no way these upcoming teams should lose. However, as we've seen throughout the year (and in every season since the first games were played), the better team doesn't always win. 

Here's a look at my picks for every game on the schedule, followed by a closer examination of some potential trap games for top teams. 

Away Team	Home Team	Proj. Winner
Miami Dolphins	Buffalo Bills	Dolphins
New Orleans Saints	Carolina Panthers	Panthers
Dallas Cowboys	Washington	Washington
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	St. Louis Rams	Rams
Chicago Bears	Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles
Cleveland Browns	N.Y. Jets	Browns
Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Chiefs
Minnesota Vikings	Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals
Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Broncos
Tennessee Titans	Jacksonville Jaguars	Jaguars
Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks
N.Y. Giants	Detroit Lions	Lions
Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers	Green Bay Packers	Packers
New England Patriots	Baltimore Ravens	Patriots
Atlanta Falcons	San Francisco 49ers	49ers

Minnesota at Cincinnati

Reason Why It's a Trap Game

Minnesota has only won four games in 2013. It's a home game for the Bengals, and with a critical AFC North battle looming against Baltimore in Week 17, it's not crazy to think Cincy could overlook the lowly Vikings. 

Prediction

As good as the Bengals have been at times this year, they've been equally bad on their "off" days, and rookie running back Giovani Bernard knows the reason why.

"I think we were just flat. I don’t think it's other teams doing this or that. I think it’s just us not coming out ready to play. That has kind of been the story this season," Bernard told reporters, as noted by Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com. 

Losing to Pittsburgh in Week 15 was a prime example of this. Cincinnati didn't show up sharp, and before the players could catch their breath, the team was down 24-0 early in the second quarter. 

The Vikings have played better than their record, and they just dropped 48 points on an unsuspecting Philadelphia Eagles team. Also, after missing Week 15 with a foot sprain, Adrian Peterson is expected to play, per head coach Leslie Frazier, as noted by ESPN's Ben Goessling:

If Matt Cassel can put up passing numbers against Cincinnati like he did against Philadelphia, then the Bengals will be in trouble. It's not likely to happen, though, as the Bengals feature the league's No. 7-ranked pass defense. 

As good as Peterson is, he's not going to carry the Vikings to victory in Cincy.

Projected Score: Bengals win, 24-17.

Dallas at Washington

Reason Why It's a Trap Game

Washington is a complete mess. Mike Shanahan's team hasn't won a game since Nov. 3 and comes into Week 16 with the worst record in the NFC. The Cowboys should easily win the game. Dallas will host Philadelphia in Week 17, and that game will likely determine the winner of the NFC East. 

Prediction

The potential for this game to turn into a comedy of errors is high, and as such, this is a tough game to predict. 

Both teams feature atrocious defenses, and both teams feature offenses capable of moving the ball at will on offense, meaning an offensive shootout is likely.

Kirk Cousins will be starting again for Washington, and he is coming off a big game in Week 15 against the Atlanta Falcons. He passed for 381 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions, falling one point short of victory after he failed to convert a two-point conversion at the end of the game. 

Dallas' defense is the worst in the league at defending the pass, which means Cousins could have another massive game at home this weekend. Also, the Cowboys are ranked No. 28 in the league at defending the run, which should bode well for Alfred Morris (and his fantasy owners). 

Making matters worse, the Cowboys fear linebacker Sean Lee is lost for the season, as pointed out by ProFootballTalk:

Washington's defense is no knight in shining armor, either. Given the way Dallas continues to abandon the running game at critical moments of the game, however, Washington's defense will do just enough to hold the Cowboys offense down in the fourth quarter.

Projected Score: Washington wins, 35-31.

Atlanta at San Francisco

Reason Why It's a Trap Game

The Falcons have been atrocious this year, winning just four games—none of which came against opponents with a winning record. San Francisco is pretty much locked into the playoffs as a No. 6 seed, provided it beats the Cardinals when the two NFC West teams meet up in Week 17 in Arizona.

Prediction

Of all the trap games in Week 15, this is the one least likely to produce an upset.

The San Francisco 49ers have won four games in a row—beating the Seahawks along the way—and nine of their last 11. This team appears to be heating up as the playoffs approach, and Michael Crabtree's return to the starting lineup has done wonders for the offense.

The only losses on San Francisco's schedule in 2013 have been to teams with winning records, and poor teams haven't fared well at all against this team. 

Atlanta falls into the "poor team" category, having won just four games this year—none of which came against teams with winning records, as earlier noted. 

Featuring the league's No. 22-ranked scoring offense (22.1 points per game) and the No. 27-ranked scoring defense (27.7), The Falcons don't stand a chance of beating the 49ers at Candlestick Park.

As an extra bit of motivation for the 49ers, this could be the final game the team plays at this legendary stadium, as noted by Cam Inman of the Bay Area News Group:

The 49ers will win by way of blowout, much to the delight of the home crowd.

Projected Score: 49ers win, 31-13.

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