Week 13 Fantasy Football Projections: Predicting Numbers for Optimum Offense
Week 13 has several NFL superstars due for big performances that should appease fantasy football owners as many leagues prepare for the playoffs.
Some of pro football's best players are able to be counted on for a bundle of fantasy points on a weekly basis, but as was the case with Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning this past Sunday, there are always aberrations.
But Manning is facing the Kansas City Chiefs for the second time in three games and is in line for a bounce-back performance after throwing for just 150 yards in a loss to the New England Patriots.
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Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
The AFC West rival Chiefs are in trouble in this showdown with The Sheriff, because their defense is hurting in all the wrong places.
Pro Bowl pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali were both injured in Week 12's loss to the San Diego Chargers in which the defense yielded 41 points. Kansas City didn't sack Manning once in the teams' first matchup, either, and Manning threw for 323 yards and a touchdown.
Imagine what Manning will be able to do if he isn't having to face one or both of those stars—or if either of them isn't his normal self.
Tom E. Curran of CSNNE.com does highlight one weakness Manning has shown this season in losing six fumbles, a league high among quarterbacks:
Manning is a no-brainer to start in fantasy no matter what, though, given that he still leads the NFL with 37 touchdown passes.
The 37-year-old living legend will return to his familiar No. 1 QB status in guiding the Broncos to a big win in Arrowhead Stadium and a solid lead in the division.
Projected Numbers: 30-of-40 passing for 360 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
Head coach Marc Trestman loves to get running backs involved in his offense, and Forte is bound to have a monster game against the putrid Minnesota Vikings defense.
The Bears haven't played well defensively, either, which could set up a running back battle between Forte and Adrian Peterson to give even more meaning to this divisional showdown.
However, Forte projects higher because of his superior receiving ability out of the backfield and the inferiority of the Vikings defense, which yields an NFL-most 31.5 points per game and is 30th in total yards allowed per contest (390.5).
Forte did hyperextend his knee in last week's game against the St. Louis Rams, but Trestman doesn't seem too concerned:
Chicago has a competent QB in Josh McCown who has proven himself to be effective in running the offense and making plays in the passing game with big targets in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett at his disposal.
Finding Forte on checkdowns should be commonplace, too, as the complete back has both the power and the elusiveness to get to the second level of Minnesota's defense with consistency.
When these teams last met in Week 2, Forte had 10 receptions for 73 yards and 20 carries for 88 yards. Look for him to accumulate similar total yardage while finding paydirt multiple times on this occasion.
Projected Numbers: 20 carries, 110 yards, TD; 6 receptions, 60 yards, TD
Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
Another NFC North battle pits the Pack against Megatron and Co. on Thanksgiving at Ford Field, where Johnson should be in full force.
It's hard to list anyone over Johnson as the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy these days, but this past Sunday's loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was only the third time all season he didn't find the end zone.
Look for that to change against Green Bay. The Lions are fighting to stay atop the division, and Matthew Stafford will be eager to face a Packers defense that is 20th against the pass and leaky against the run after throwing four interceptions in Week 12.
Johnson has been targeted an average of 14.8 times over the past five games, and director of NFC Communications Randall Liu notes the history Megatron made in that span:
Chances are, Stafford is going to look to Johnson often to try to snap Detroit off its two-game skid.
The dynamic tandem of Stafford and Johnson have only connected on 66 of 122 attempts thus far, but Johnson averages 18.2 yards when he does secure the catch. In this crossroads type of game, they should be as in tune as ever.
Projected Numbers: 11 receptions, 160 yards, 2 TDs
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
The traditionally terrific Tom Brady hasn't quite been himself oftentimes this season with such a new slew of supporting cast members surrounding him.
Ever since Gronkowski has returned to the lineup, though, things have opened up a little more for everyone. How's this for rapport: In the past three games, Brady and Gronk have connected on 21 of 27 targets for 292 yards and three touchdowns.
That's a pretty good indicator that the Pats are on to something.
Gronkowski gets to face a reeling Houston Texans team that had the top-ranked pass defense not long ago but has since slipped to ninth over the past three games.
In that span, tight ends Rob Housler (Arizona Cardinals) and Mychal Rivera (Oakland Raiders) had the first and second touchdowns of their respective careers.
Considering that Gronk has had that many combined in the past three contests, he should continue his dominance and put up one of his better games of 2013 at Reliant Stadium on Sunday.
Projected Numbers: 8 receptions, 130 yards, 2 TDs
| 1 | Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos | Matt Forte, Chicago Bears | Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions | Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots |
| 2 | Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers | Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks | Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys | Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions | Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers | Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns | Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers |
| 4 | Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals | Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings | Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals | Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints |
| 5 | Eli Manning, New York Giants | Rashad Jennings, Oakland Raiders | A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals | Garrett Graham, Houston Texans |

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