Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The last four grudge matches between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers have all been decided by a field goal.

So we can probably expect another close game when the Ravens and Steelers get together for a Turkey Day nightcap Thursday in Baltimore and possibly an UNDER play if recent history repeats itself.

Point spread: Ravens opened as 3-point favorites; the total was 40.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 20.8-18.7 Ravens

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

After an 0-4 start, Pittsburgh has won five of its last seven games and played itself into AFC playoff contention. Big Ben has been handling most of the load on offense, but rookie RB Le'Veon Bell seems about due to break through. And defensively the Steelers have been getting better, holding five of their last seven opponents to 21 points or less.

They are also 4-1 ATS in five recent trips here.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The defending Super Bowl champs gave a good effort Sunday, holding the Jets to 220 yards of offense in a 19-3 victory. So Baltimore has won two of its last three to stay relevant in the AFC playoff picture. The Ravens offense continues to struggle, but the defense ranks 10th overall and has allowed more than 24 points just once this season.

They have won 29 of 31 home games when favored and are 6-1 ATS recently at home, according to Odds Shark.

Smart Pick

It's a tight squeeze but the Odds Shark computer is calling for a Baltimore victory but a Pittsburgh cover in a game that plays UNDER its total. These two teams, as they've been for quite some time now, are still very close. Even their strengths and weaknesses are the same.

In a game that could easily go either way, take the points with the underdog. There are key betting trends on both sides favoring an UNDER play as well.

Trends:

• Last four meetings all decided by a field goal
• Steelers are 4-1 ATS past five trips to Baltimore
• Ravens are 29-2 SU past 31 games as home favorites
• UNDER is 10-2 past 12 Steeler divisional games
• Ravens have played seven straight home UNDERs
• Ravens are 6-1 ATS past seven home games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.