Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Detroit Lions are working on their second playoff appearance in the last three seasons, but they still have problems with the Green Bay Packers, losing their last five in a row and 15 of their last 16 to their longtime rivals.

In a Turkey Day tradition that should be held every season, the Lions and Packers meet again on Thursday at Ford Field.

Point spread: Lions opened as 3.5-point favorites, but bet to 5.5 by Tuesday; the total was 50.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 25.0-24.1 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still out, but Matt Flynn returned to Green Bay last week and rallied the Packers to a 26-26 tie with the Minnesota Vikings, hitting on 21 of 36 throws, converting on a key fourth down and throwing nary an interception.

And running back Eddie Lacy posted his third 100-yard effort of the season against the Vikes. Finally, there's always that "15-of-16" thing and the 12-3 against the spread run in 15 games.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The last time these teams played back in Week 5, Detroit was without wide receiver Calvin Johnson. This time, it's Green Bay that's without a key player, or should we say key players, because the Packers are seriously banged up.

The Lions rank sixth in total offense and get to go against a Packers defense that has stunk lately, making guys like Josh McCown and Christian Ponder look good.

Detroit can cover because the Packers cannot—they are winless straight up and against the spread in their past four games as road underdogs.

Smart Pick

The Odds Shark NFL computer is calling for Green Bay to win outright in a game that just sneaks UNDER its total. Flynn must only be able to play for the Packers. The Seattle Seahawks, Oakland Raiders and Buffalo Bills all cut him, and he then pulls Green Bay's chestnuts out of the fire against Minnesota.

Even though this game may devolve into a shootout, six points could come in handy.

Trends:

• Packers are 12-3 ATS past 15 games vs Lions
• Lions are 1-6 ATS past seven at home to Packers
• UNDER is 10-3 past 13 Packers divisional road games
• Packers are 0-4 SU & ATS as road underdog
• OVER is 9-2 past 11 Detroit games when favored at home

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow them on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.