NFL Week 13 Picks: Teams That Won't Cover Spread

The Thanksgiving tripleheader is coming up so the country should be filled with Turkey and pigskin this weekend. Taking a look at some of the lines heading into the week's matchups, the oddsmakers are a little off in their projections.

The spread for one of the Turkey Day clashes is the first game I have beef with.

Dallas Big Favorites in Big D

The Dallas Cowboys are coming off a big win over the New York Giants, but there is no way they are 10 points better than the Oakland Raiders—even playing at home. Dallas is a 10-point favorite, per Bovada, heading into the two teams' Thanksgiving matchup. 

Dallas' defense simply isn't good enough to create major separation between itself and most opponents. As good as Tony Romo and Co. have been on offense, the defense is ranked 31st against the pass and 30th against the run.

The Oakland Raiders have proven themselves to be a formidable running team this season. Despite losing Darren McFadden, the Raiders are the eighth-best running team in the league. Much of that was due to Terrelle Pryor's 504 rushing yards. With Matt McGloin now the man under center, the Raiders are riding Rashad Jennings and Marcel Reese as the primary sources for yardage on the ground.

Thanks in large part to Jennings, the Raiders' run game hasn't missed a beat without Pryor.

In the last four weeks, Jennings has averaged 103.2 yards per game and has scored two touchdowns. The Raiders may not defeat the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, but the running game will help them at least keep it closer than 10 points.

Ravens vs. Steelers Rivalry Renewed

The two meetings between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers don't have as much bite this year since both teams are struggling a bit. The defending champions are at home for this one and favored to win by three points.

It is an understandable point spread, but Joe Flacco's recent interception splurge is concerning. He's thrown six picks in his last four games and 14 overall. Part of the reason Flacco is struggling is because the Ravens haven't established the running game. Ray Rice has had just one 100-yard rushing game this year, and the team ranks 27th in the NFL in this category.

Flacco is forcing the issue, and teams are making the Ravens pay. The Steelers defense will feast on Flacco's miscues, and that will be the key factor in Thursday's game.

Pittsburgh has won three games in a row and finally appear to be hitting its stride. With the Ravens still struggling to find a consistent running game, the Steelers will dominate time of possession and take the Ravens fans out of the game.

Carolina Panthers Flying High and Facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As the hottest teams in the NFL, it is understandable that the Panthers would be favored by nine over the 3-8 Bucs. That said, Carolina has a huge target on its back every week because of its success. Teams want to bring their best against the Panthers, and Sunday's game against the Bucs will be no different. Tampa Bay is playing much better lately with Mike Glennon at quarterback.

It has won three games in a row, and Glennon has been picked off just once in his last six games. Glennon has the Bucs offense functioning like a legitimate NFL attack, and the team can't be taken lightly.

The Bucs will be up for this game and are a good bet to stick closer than nine points.

The Rest of the League

Here's a look at picks for the other games on the Week 13 schedule.

Thursday, Nov. 28	Time (ET)	TV	Line	Prediction
Sunday, Dec. 1	Time (ET)	TV	Line	Prediction
Monday, Nov. 30	Time (ET)	TV	Line	Prediction
Green Bay at Detroit	12:30 p.m.	Fox	Detroit -6	Green Bay 24, Detroit 20
Oakland at Dallas	4:30 p.m.	CBS	Dallas -10	Dallas 30, Oakland 23
Pittsburgh at Baltimore	8:30 p.m.	NBC	Baltimore -3	Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 16
Jacksonville at Cleveland	1:00 p.m.	CBS	Cleveland -7	Cleveland 14, Jacksonville 7
Tennessee at Indianapolis	1:00 p.m.	CBS	Indianapolis -4	Indianapolis 23, Tennessee 17
Chicago at Minnesota	1:00 p.m.	Fox	Minnesota -1	Chicago 30, Minnesota 19
Miami at NY Jets	1:00 p.m.	CBS	N.Y. Jets -1	Miami 21, N.Y. Jets 14
Arizona at Philadelphia	1:00 p.m.	Fox	Philadelphia -3.5	Arizona 24, Philadelphia 14
Tampa Bay at Carolina	1:00 p.m.	Fox	Carolina -9	Carolina 16, Tampa Bay 10
New England at Houston	1:00 p.m.	CBS	New England -9	New England 40, Houston 20
Atlanta at Buffalo	4:05 p.m.	Fox	Buffalo -3.5	Atlanta 27, Buffalo 21
St. Louis at San Francisco	4:05 p.m.	Fox	N/A	San Francisco 17, St. Louis 9
Denver at Kansas City	4:25 p.m.	CBS	Denver -4.5	Denver 26, Kansas City 14
Cincinnati at San Diego	4:25 p.m.	CBS	N/A	San Diego 35, Cincinnati 30
NY Giants at Washington	8:30 p.m.	NBC	N/A	N.Y. Giants 26, Washington 14
New Orleans at Seattle	8:30 p.m.	ESPN	Seattle -6	Seattle 21, New Orleans 17